Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[vox humana]

Why did some of you Freepers think the latest report was a joke? It's not nice to fool Mother Nature. She can be a bitch. Don't make her mad. This is series!

[NautiNurse]

At this point (while hauling the storm supplies out of the cabinets), I'm relieved I slept through the storm bombing last night. Sleep will be a precious commodity for the next several days around here.

[ovrtaxt]

Thanks for the good news....Unnngh!!

[Guenevere]

My husband says we're going to stay put....we're on the east coast, central Florida.

Me...I want to go to Jacksonville.

[STARWISE]

Thank you .. I fear my son's old house in Sarasota would not survive a Cat 5. Prayers for protection for all affected.

[onyx]

Most excellent. Thanks Mike.

[sweet_diane]

Rest when you can NN. Your threads meant so much to me and my family during Ivan, Dennis, Katrina and Rita. You know, we really have to stop meeting like this!

Stay safe!

[tutstar]

I couldn't resist...

[del4hope]

If these hurricanes have taught us anything in the past eighteen months, it has taught us how to recognize good state leadership. Glad you have Jeb. My opinion of Bob Riley was solidified during Ivan and Katrina (geez, these two cane names when paired together, sound like quite a couple, don't they?)And needless to say Haley Barbour has been quite impressive.

The poor leadership, I won't even go there.

[tom paine 2]

bump

[ArmyBratsMom]

Thanks for the insight, jeffers. I highly respect your opinion on these hurricane threads.

looking at the projected path, it appears that Wilma included, every front inch of the Gulf Coast has gotten hit or will get hit this year with the exception of from Houston SW to the US/Mexico border. I guess we know where Alpha can be expected to make landfall?

You are reading my mind here. "Hurricane Alpha" just sounds ominous ... alpha male ... need I say more. A major hurricane going in near Houston in the next month would be a true disaster, as I'm sure very few people would even consider evacuating. Terrible scenario if that were the case.

[neutrality]

Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 16a
Statement as of 8:00 am EDT on October 19, 2005

 
...Wilma maintaining category five status...record pressure
confirmed by aircraft crew...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the East Coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Punta gruesa.

 
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of
Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of
Youth.  A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

 
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

 

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.

 
All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 8 am EDT...1200z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 17.2 north...longitude  82.8 west or about  340 miles...
550 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

 
Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr.  A
turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph...280 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Wilma is a potentially catastrophic category five hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Fluctuations in intensity are common
in hurricanes this intense and are likely during the next 24 hours.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 160 miles...260 km.

 
Based on dropsonde and flight-level data from an Air Force plane
just returning from its mission in Wilma...the minimum central
pressure is estimated to be 882 mb...26.05 inches.  This is the
lowest pressure on record for a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.  

 
Wilma is expected to produce storm total accumulations of 10 to 15
inches...with local amounts near 25 inches in mountainous terrain
across Cuba through Friday.  Additional rainfall accumulations of 5
to 10 inches...with local amounts of 15 inches...are possible
across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and Jamaica through
Thursday.  Storm total accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with
isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches...are possible from Honduras
northward to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through Thursday.

 
Repeating the 8 am EDT position...17.2 N... 82.8 W.  Movement
toward...west-northwest near  8 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...175
mph.  Minimum central pressure... 882 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 am EDT.

 
Forecaster Franklin

 
$$

[kidd]

"Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles"

While this is a very powerful storm, it is also a very tight storm. 15 miles?

[bobdsmith]

I think they just updated the advisory: http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/at200524.public.html

[Sender]

I lived in Lexington KY during the 1974 tornado outbreak. I was the only employee at the time in charge of a motel full of people that evening.

I remember the sky going this wierd gray-green, with a very ominous, powerful feeling. Greenage, dude. Luckily the tornadoes skipped all around us and we didn't get hit. I used the headlights of my own car to provide light on the motel during the hours of power outages though.

Before KY, I lived in...Pinellas county FL. Been there, done that. Don't care to see a hurricane any closer than I've already seen them. Good luck and God bless to all in this storm's uncertain path.

[Fawn]

My boys just moved down to FL from PA in April,

Why did they move to Florida? Where are they?

[proud American in Canada]

Wilma is now the most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. She's outdone her sisters Katrina and Rita in both pressure and the speed of her ramp-up to Cat 5.

As the people back home would say, "holy cow."

I heard this on the radio when I woke up and just could not believe it.

[battletank]

I sure don't mind admitting I'm getting very scared. All I can do is hang on the words of those who say this might weaken before landfall.

Thanks so much for these threads. I'll be glued to this one all day...and then some....

[kx9088]

Holy moley!

Just last night at 12 midnight they were saying Cat3 at landfall on Florida. less than 12 hours later it's a Cat5. WTF?!

[Fawn]

But it's a very small storm. The eye is only 4 miles wide---and it extends about 16 miles out (each way I think)