Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

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Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
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Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

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Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Termite_Commander]

=P

You guys are competitive.

[nwctwx]

She's going to be a biggy tomorrow, no doubt. I think we see cat 4, maybe high 4, as a likely strength before entering the GOM. That region has really cooked up some monsters this season. We focus on the two cat 5s we've seen, which is amazing for one year... but, we were pretty darn close to having 2 more cat 5s down there pretty early in the season.

Almost as interesting is how she will interact with the trough that is coming to pick her up.

I'm kind of looking forward to Alpha... we've made it this far. ;-)

[geopyg]

My mom's got a condo on the beach in Naples. She has quality storm shutters and is up high - hope it will be okay. (She's up north right now). I imagine the pool might fill up with sand though - and perhaps she can have someone move her car inland.

[steveegg]

I suppose the "good" news is that TWC hasn't gone wall-to-wall Wilma yet.

[steveegg]

Does anyone have any good news?

[Termite_Commander]

Alpha could be one of those storms that flares up in the Atlantic and spins off and disintegrates. That'd be good.

[don-o]

I'm kind of looking forward to Alpha... we've made it this far. ;-)

I kind of understand. But, I would like to see an end, now. We, of course cannot control - only look. Wishing for Alpha seens - I dunno, somehow sick.

[Termite_Commander]

I'd use the Geico line, but it's so overused it's no longer funny. =/

[Sally'sConcerns]

My folks-in-law live in Boca Raton, Tampa and Orlando.

I pray for the whole State of Florida when a hurricane approaches!! My folks are kind, patient people who don't complain - they just break out the generator and storm shutters and do all other sensible preparations or they evacuate if need be.

God bless them and all Floridians facing this storm.

My sister and son live in Houston so I pay attention when storms enter the GOM. NN's threads were instrumental in helping me decide where best to send my son. Even though he's on his own and is a native Houstonian, Rita was the first hurricane that could have potentially affected him. Every other time a hurricane or tropical storm has hit the Houston area, we've lived in Dallas or San Antonio. I didn't want him stuck by himself in an apartment if Rita hit Galveston or Surfside. (Possible flooding from rain, possible days without electricity, etc.)

I had a choice of either having my son go to his Dad's in east Texas or to my sister's house in SW Houston. Initially when it looked like Rita was going to hit either Surfside or Galveston I had him going to e. Texas. When Rita made her jog, we changed plans and had him go to my sister's. He was there from Thursday mid-day til Sunday morning when my b-i-l found a gas station with gas.

Since I live in Oklahoma I wasn't getting local forecasts, only the potential affects of the storm if it should come through here as a rain event. I relied heavily on NN's thread for the local forecasts, the amateur and the professional meteorologists on the threads and people's opinions. If he had gone to his Dad's he would have been in potential trouble since e. Texas was in Rita's path and there was quite a bit of damage. As it was, my sister received a few raindrops and a little breeze.

All of this was why I took exception to Steven W for making fun of this thread with his "ROFLAMAO" and comment about being scared about Y2K. His comments were out of line.

Thanks to NN for maintaining the threads and my prayers for Florida during Wilma.

[CFC__VRWC]

From what I've been hearing, this one could be the third Cat 5 down there this season. I had heard earlier that once it entered the Gulf of Mexico it would start to pick up some westerly shear that could weaken it somewhat before making landfall. But even that feature seems to be gone now, if I'm reading things right. There's nothing at all to keep it from steadily strenghtening until it hits South Florida as a monstrous Category 5. And I wonder now much it will weaken as it crosses Florida - if it comes in low and passes over the Everglades, it may not weaken at all. All the while slamming the entire peninsula, with hurricane force winds up past Tampa, and tropical storm force winds right up to the Georgia state line.

[nwctwx]

Wishing for Alpha seens - I dunno, somehow sick.

We've seen the extreme, might as well have the solid record. That said, I don't live in a region that has to really worry about these things (though, some models want to hit New England pretty hard down the line).

Certainly not wishing for more damage to life and/or property, As Termite_Commander suggested, a spin in the middle of the Atlantic will do. ;-)

[nwctwx]

There is a very strong trough coming to kick it NE by late week/weekend. The idea that shear from the west won't be strong is likely incorrect. IF it hits Cat 5, which I would bet against right now, then it would probably come in as a solid 3, low 4. I think it will probably peak out in the Caribbean, then weaken as the trough works on it. Charley was able to pack a very strong punch last year with a trough.. but, that's kind of rare. Charley had also just begun his turn when the eye was coming ashore. This storm could be moving ENE when it reaches FL.

105-115 at landfall seems reasonable based on what I have looked at. Wind fields will probably quite expansive. It's actually quite a tricky forecast, she could end up shooting through the Straits of FL. I'm thinking punta gorda area and S. Any westward movement more than expected in the short term shifts the threat area north a bit.

It could swing outside the outer banks and plow into new england after that. Later season storms are always tough to predict.

[laz]

There's nothing at all to keep it from steadily strenghtening until it hits South Florida as a monstrous Category 5.

I really, really hope you're wrong about that. We don't need another Andrew, this time from the west. And I wonder now much it will weaken as it crosses Florida - if it comes in low and passes over the Everglades, it may not weaken at all.

When Katrina passed over Miami, and then over the Everglades, she didn't weaken at all until just before she went into the GOM. Then she quickly restrengthened.

[CFC__VRWC]

I hope I'm wrong too - probably am, I don't do this for a living. I live in Polk County, and last year's tropical hat trick is still very fresh in my mind. Please let this thing weaken - I'm just so sick and tired of this crap.

I wonder what the over/under on named storms is for next season? I'll bet it'll be at least 30.

[RMDupree]

*waving to you from West Kendall*

We just fixed our fence from Katrina last week.

I've already vowed to tie myself to it so we don't have to shell out another $1000+. (kidding)

But yeah, we had no shutters up either. Standing by the sliding glass door, we watched our beautiful avocado tree fall (explains the fence) and shingles flying around.

[Capt. Tom]

8:14 PM Tuesday Oct 18 2005

Hurricane Wilma continues to explosively strengthen over the warm waters of the Caribbean. The storm will reach Category 3 strength early Wednesday and should become a Category 4 hurricane by the end of Wednesday.

It is not out of the question that Wilma reaches Category 5 strength some time Wednesday or Thursday, which would set a new record for the most Category 5 hurricanes in a single year. The AccuWeather.com forecasted track of Wilma shows the storm becoming a serious threat to Florida this weekend. Deviations in the path are still possible, but currently we feel southern and central Florida will experience the full fury of the storm.

When the storm makes landfall this weekend, the west coast of Florida somewhere between Tampa and the Keys could be pounded by winds over 100 mph and a destructive storm surge. Torrential rain brought by the storm will be widespread across a large portion of the state.

Story by AccuWeather.com expert senior meteorologists John Kocet and Ray Martin.

[jsh3180]

''Does anyone have any good news?''

Sure, I've got some good news, I'm here in the Lower Florida Keys, looks like this one passes just to the north of the Keys, which will give us North to Northeast winds, that means I will only shutter the North side of my house, which is far less work for me than storms coming with SE, S or SW winds.

Looking at the bright side.........Funny thing is, I have had my shutters up for almost the whole summer, like living in a cave, but we had company coming from Pennsylvania last Friday, so I took em all down..........Big mistake there!!!!!!!!

Also looks like the storm will be accelerating in forward speed as it passes the Keys, which will give us a much briefer period of intense wind.

That's my good news for the night.........will see how I feel about it after the 11pm and tomorrow 5am advisories.

[markman46]

Yes the cold front has moved out of calif, I was so hoping it was going to stick around here for another 24hrs. but nope. here's hopign you guy in Fl don't get hit badly.

[laz]

*waving to you from West Kendall*

I'm a bit south of you, in Cutler Ridge. Been living here since September, 2004, after moving from Los Angeles. This house was heavily damaged by Andrew and had to be reinforced. I hope the reinforcements are enough to withstand Wilma.

[RMDupree]

I'm sure they will be.

The codes were strengthened after Andrew, so I'd feel safer in a house upgraded after Andrew than one that was spared and nothing was replaced.