The latest steering currents, track forecast, and intensity forecast, do not look good for South Florida. Oh well, no one holds a gun to my head to have a home in South Florida.
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Posted on 10/18/2005 7:40:22 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.
The following links are self-updating:
Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track
Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida
Images:
Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
I'm in south Florida, and I have a daughter in Orlando, so you can bet we're both watching this one!
Wow! You truly do have a reason to moniter the situation. I will be gathering data from all local channels and FR thread. Living in a mobile home makes it vital. If it comes directly into Central Fla. I am out of here.
Stay safe!
UGH. We have a condo on Ft. Myers Beach. I'm getting very very worried about this one. Got alot of damage on the Beach from Charley. ALOT of people are still getting back to normal from that one.
What is the relationship of ophelia to wilma? -Tom
Thanks - I will keep following the thread too.
Not the original poster, but a lot of Ophelia's uncertainty occurred because the steering currents guiding the system were quite weak, and that is the case for Wilma too (right now, at least). By the time it reaches the western tip of Cuba, or thereabouts, Wilma will likely get pulled into a much stronger steering mechanism thanks to the large cold front that will be sweeping across the lower 48.
954mb now... good strengthening
---
000
URNT12 KNHC 182328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:09:50Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1037 m
D. 45 kt
E. 178 deg 049 nm
F. 257 deg 080 kt
G. 167 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 18 C/ 1518 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER
That graphic is a snapshot in time, and how fast those other systems are moving is what the forecasters have to take into account.
Whatever is happening they all seem to be on the same page now,according to the lower graphic in post # 162. - Tom
That outbound wind (usually not reported) is U-G-L-Y with a capital "Y".
...Wilma undergoing rapid intensification... a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Watch also remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Punta Allen to Cabo Catoche. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area... generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands. All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of Wilma. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near latitude 16.7 north... longitude 81.8 west or about 185 miles... 295 km... south of Grand Cayman. While the center has wobbled a little westward over the past few hours...Wilma is moving generally toward the west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A turn to the northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph...160 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Wilma a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The aircraft reports that the central pressure is falling rapidly... and Wilma is expected to become a major hurricane later tonight or on Wednesday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km. NOAA buoy 42057 northeast of the center recently reported sustained winds of 55 mph... 88 km/hr...with a gust of 63 mph... 101 km/hr. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter was 954 mb...28.17 inches. Wilma is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches...with isolated amounts of 15 inches...over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and Cuba. Total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated amounts of 12 inches...are possible over portions of Honduras and Nicaragua. Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...16.7 N... 81.8 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 954 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT. Forecaster Beven
I'm NOT in the mood for this. Besides..my neighbors just got their roof finished from Charley..they're DEFINITELY not in the mood.
Ok. I whined. I'll get over it:)
Hurricane Wilma Intermediate Advisory Number 13a
Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on October 18, 2005
...Wilma undergoing rapid intensification...
a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the provinces of Matanzas
westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of Youth. A
Hurricane Watch also remains in effect for the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico from Punta Allen to Cabo Catoche. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...
generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the
Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
the Cayman Islands.
All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should
closely monitor the progress of Wilma.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near
latitude 16.7 north... longitude 81.8 west or about 185 miles...
295 km... south of Grand Cayman.
While the center has wobbled a little westward over the past few
hours...Wilma is moving generally toward the west-northwest near 8
mph...13 km/hr. A turn to the northwest is expected during the
next 24 hours.
Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph...160
km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Wilma a category two
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The aircraft reports that
the central pressure is falling rapidly... and Wilma is expected to
become a major hurricane later tonight or on Wednesday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 15 miles... 30 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km. NOAA buoy 42057 northeast of the center
recently reported sustained winds of 55 mph... 88 km/hr...with a
gust of 63 mph... 101 km/hr.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
was 954 mb...28.17 inches.
Wilma is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 5
to 10 inches...with isolated amounts of 15 inches...over the Cayman
Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and Cuba. Total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 6 inches...with isolated amounts of 12 inches...are
possible over portions of Honduras and Nicaragua.
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...16.7 N... 81.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 100 mph. Minimum central pressure... 954 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Beven
$$
Yikes.
Whoops. Already posted.
Hope and pray that Wilma takes either the far-right or the "outlier" guidance (BAMD has it missing Florida entirely, UKMET and BAMM have it clipping the far southern tip of Florida, and the "outlier" has it pulling a Mitch on the Yucatan).
LOL; that's nothing. NautiNurse and I had the 11 pm advisory from last night posted 11 seconds apart.
Bump!
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