Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
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Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Strategerist]

For a Five-day forecast, that's identical for all practical purposes.

Though one thing about Charley is that strangely people seem to have a very inflated notion of the distances between various places on the Western Florida coast; I've seen amazing exagerrations of the distance between Tampa and Punta Gorda, etc.

[sheikdetailfeather]

5pm per WFTV the path has shifted slightly south. Of course, this is early in the game.

[Marak]

--For a Five-day forecast, that's identical for all practical purposes. --

I disagree. Florida is a 400 mile penisula and I live on the extreme southwestern tip. If a Cat 3 is hitting here, I need to get out, but the only path is northward. If the storm is going to hit even 50 miles to the north, I am better off staying put.

Katrina passed 40 miles south of us with no ill effects. Charlie passed 50 miles to the west of us and hit 60 miles north of us with no damage.
Andrew passing 20 miles south of us caused widespread damage, but that would be nothing compared to a direct hit.

While you are correct that a 5-day forecast is iffy at best, it is still the best information we have available at the moment to start making plans. Bear in mind that there is no 'high ground' down here to evacuate to, so the forecast will be what determines the extent of evacuation.

[tutstar]

I'm in NE FL. We always seem to dodge the worst of it. We did have tornadoes from Bonnie, and some minor damage from Charlie and I can't remember the other storms. We lost power and had tree damage from them but nothing really major.

One thing I know, You can't trust a hurricane! 8^)

[Strategerist]

I disagree. Florida is a 400 mile penisula and I live on the extreme southwestern tip. If a Cat 3 is hitting here, I need to get out, but the only path is northward. If the storm is going to hit even 50 miles to the north, I am better off staying put.

You're putting far too much focus on the line rather than the cone.

When I look at a 4-5 day forecast like that of NHC and AccuWeather currently, my immediate reaction is that they're identical. You should prepare identically no matter which one you believe more. The distance between their precise landfall locations is trivial and utterly meaningless, this far out.

Also Wilma is very likely to be a very wide storm if it hits Florida, at the time it does.

[Capt. Tom]

For a 5 day forecast, that's essentially identical to the NHC forecast

The NHC has changed their days old earlier track to agree with ACCU.

I have a snowbird friend who left last week for Naples. I couldn't resist giving him a jab: so I sent the then ACCU track in an e- mail entitled "AccuWeather terrorizing the FLA. snowbirds with hurricane Wilma forecast"

The text read "AccuWeather has a category 3 hurricane heading into Florida's west coast this coming Sunday. Nat Hurricane forecast has it on a more westerly course.

This is the reply I received:
"Just to let you know........it's been 67 years since any hurricane has hit Naples......you've had lots more trouble in Scituate than we've ever had here."

[Rebelbase]

"You're putting far too much focus on the line rather than the cone."

Cones are very important.

[Marak]

--You should prepare identically no matter which one you believe more.--

Nonsense. If I evacuated every time I was in the cone of a projected hurricane, I would have to spend half the year in Michigan every year. If you live in Florida, you have come to accept hurricanes as part of the bargain. Live here long enough and you will sustain hurricane damage. That is a fact of life. Evacuating when the eye of a major hurricane is landing within 30 miles of you is far, far different than running whenever you are in the cone of probabilities.

While I understand the unpredictablility of storms, it is the forecasted line that I do focus on. The closer that line is to me, the more nervous I get, and preparations will vary depending upon the updates.

[HoHoeHeaux]

NautiNurse I am not sure where in Florida you are. I hope this doesn't hit too close to you. It's looking like a bad one, isn't it? Prayers that it misses you and your loved ones.

[PatriotGirl827]

Thanks for the ping! Now to catch up on reading the thread.

[chemicalman]

Good luck Floridians.

I have to change the time of year I take vacation. Every time I have vacation a storm pops up in the gulf. Katrina, Rita, and now Wilma.

I'll scedule next years vacation during the cooler months. lol

[Strategerist]

Yeah, that AccuWeather track for Ophelia heading into the Gulf of Mexico when NHC had it slowly moving towards North Carolina really worked out well, didn't it?

[Strategerist]

If you live in, say, Cape Coral, and it matters to you that a 4-5 day forecast track has a storm going over Cape Coral, or going over Marco Island, you really don't understand hurricanes or hurricane forecasting.

This is the cause of people being surprised by storms when they had no reason to be, and then taking out their frustration on the forecasters.

[baclava]

"The best part about Hurricanes of course..." Steph

[jeffers]

I haven't seen any surge maps for SW Florida yet. The hi-res DEMs (3 meter per pixel) I found are only available in 1:24,000 scale and run 5 to 8 megs apiece. It takes several of them just to cover one medium sized city.

It's a little to early to commit to the bandwidth necessary to obtain those, since we don't know where Wilma's headed yet, and once you've become accustomed to working with them, even 10 meter per pixel data just doesn't cut it anymore.

:-)

Between now and then I'll probably find time to load up the GTOPO 1km per pixel dataset and see what's what, but right now work on the last part of the levee analysis is taking up most of my time.

[lexington minuteman 1775]

Well, last weekend the wife and I went to church conference in Orlando. They were auctioning off pies for new church development. So I used my block ice to keep the pies cool in the cooler, figguring I would not need the ice this hurricane season. Well, now, I guess I am in a pickle. So tomorrow I go to the ice plant and buy some more ice blocks. This is getting to be a real pain!

[Chanticleer]

One of the best times to come -- November after Thanksgiving and December before Christmas. Weather is great, crowds are low... just in case you're changing your plans!

[SuziQ]

Yowsers! It looks like she's going to cut across through the Naples area. Glad my trip there isn't for a few more weeks!

[laz]

This is the cause of people being surprised by storms when they had no reason to be

The way I was surprised by Katrina here in Miami. Everybody expected her to move northwest after landfall just south of Ft. Lauderdale, so I didn't even put my shutters up. As soon as she made landfall, she suddenly turned southwest and tracked directly over all of Miami-Dade County. Her eye passed within ten miles or so west of me. Luckily, she was a Cat 1 with 80 MPH winds, but that was scary enough. There was tremendous thunder and lightning, my power went out, and I got about 20 inches of rain.

As far as Wilma is concerned, she's going to affect Miami no matter what track she takes across the peninsula, so I'm ready this time.

[sheikdetailfeather]

WESH TV in Volusia county, Fla. (Daytona) just said if the cold front coming from California moves on time, south Fla. gets the hurricane. If the front slows down, Central Fla. gets it. But even the GFDL has shifted slightly south from where it was earlier today. (earlier it was going through Orlando).