Hurricane Wilma Live Thread (As of 2:30 am EDT, Wilma is a Category 5 with 175-mph winds )

NHC - NOAA ^ | 18 October 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Wilma has formed in the NW Caribbean Sea. The NHC forecast indicates she will emerge into the Gulf of Mexico as a major Category Three storm. Current forecase models indicate a Florida peninsula landfall.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 0500, 0800, 1100 etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 0500, 1100, 1700, 2300 ET
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Wilma Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data SE Florida
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Florida

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Florida Radar/Sat Loop Caution: Broadband users only
Extra Large Miami Radar Broadband only
Extra Large Key West Radar Broadband only
Miami Long Range Radar Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Loop
Miami Experimental Radar Still Image
Key West Experimental Radar Still Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

Thank you for your generous offers and info to provide refuge to hurricane evacuees blam, backhoe, and U S Army EOD.

[Vermonter]

I'd rather write about the Oreos in my hurricane plan

Now there's a freeper with his priorities in order! ;-}

[They'reGone2000]

WILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLMA!

[NautiNurse]

Was it the GFDL that went loopy this afternoon?

[laz]

Looks like she hasn't weakened any further. The drop from 175 to 160 was probably due to the eyewall replacement that's been going on.

[RDTF]

I'd buy plenty of Franco American in the pop up can. And of course Oreos. And Little Debbies.

[nwctwx]

Does it appear now to be leaving FL alone, Ian?

I doubt it. The main question in my mind is if she goes into Mexico first. If it misses Mexicon, I'd say my idea of 105-115 at landfall would be about right. Perhaps much weaker if it goes over Mexico. If that happens, it will only re-emerge after getting kicked by the trough, so it won't strengthen much, if it all.

[nwctwx]

Yes, the 12z GFDL seems to have been a blip of some sort. It's back much closer to its idea prior to that run... closer to the east coast late in the period.

[SE Mom]

I just went to "your" website- WOW..it's terrific! Right down to damage estimates by county!

In this model...NN and I do NOT like the gold/tan line..going through Tampa across the state...who does that belong to?

[floriduh voter]

Walmart didn't have any suitable little grills so I decided if we lose power, I'll eat stuff cold. Walmart was really packed today, especially the canned food aisle. I don't plan on waiting for Fema, Jeb or my mayor to feed and water us. Next thing you know, Geraldo would be here trying to carry me to a helicopter.

[nwctwx]

The site was made by the University of Central Florida. They collaborated with the University of Minnesota on the mapping system. The damage estimate thing is neat, but hasn't seemed to be super accurate based on what I have seen. It's good for a general idea in that area though.

[laz]

GFDL has me quite worried. NE quad winds could bring surge right into Miami.

[blam]

"Thank you for your generous offers and info to provide refuge to hurricane evacuees blam, backhoe, and U S Army EOD. "

You're welcome and thanks to backhoe and US Army EOD. I didn't think about it before but I can take 2-3 RV's in this emergency too.

Now, is my arm suppose to hurt so much after I got a pneumonia shot in it about 11:30AM today?

[NautiNurse]

Sounds like you either had a bad nurse, or a tetanus shot ;o)

Recommend: take a couple of Advil.

[nwctwx]

I don't think surge will be all that big of an issue with this storm for the U.S.

[nwctwx]

Make that FL. If the GFDL is right, which is not likely, a hurricane/hybrid moving 60mph into RI might cause some surge.

[cva66snipe]

Now, is my arm suppose to hurt so much after I got a pneumonia shot in it about 11:30AM today?

Sounds like either the nurse hit muscle OR you were watching the syringe and tensed up. It get four shots a week for allergies. The trick is look the other way when getting shots so you don't tense up and the needle goes in straight & easy. Do that and all you'll ever likely feel is a mild sting for a second.

[blam]

"Recommend: take a couple of Advil."

Thanks...should I call you tomorrow? lol

[Palladin]

>>>Next thing you know, Geraldo would be here trying to carry me to a helicopter.<<<

It's good to see you haven't lost your sense of humor, in the face of another hurricane.

[exhaustedmomma]

I don't know if they are sold out in your area, but in the sporting goods/camping department Walmart's has some small single burner propane stoves.

walmart website with various items