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Posted on 10/17/2005 1:39:34 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The 2005 hurricane season continues to alter the record books. Tropical Storm Wilma has formed in the Caribbean Sea.
NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
I see. Thanks for the info.
I simply cannot believe this.
000 URNT12 KNHC 172024 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 17/20:05:10Z B. 15 deg 50 min N 079 deg 52 min W C. 850 mb 1342 m D. 35 kt E. 318 deg 020 nm F. 034 deg 038 kt G. 318 deg 019 nm H. 989 mb I. 17 C/ 1525 m J. 19 C/ 1524 m K. 19 C/ NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345/ 8 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF304 0324A WILMA OB 10 MAX FL WIND 38 KT NW QUAD 19:59:10 Z GOOD BANDING ON RADAR
We're due for a full update from the NHC inside of 22 minutes.
a reconnaissance aircraft has just arrived in the center of Wilma...finding a minimum pressure of 989 mb...and peak 850 mb flight-level winds of 51 kt in the southeast quadrant. While this minimum pressure often corresponds to near hurricane intensity... environmental pressures are unusually low...flattening the pressure gradient. Though the overall amount of deep convection has decreased with the diurnal minimum...banding continues to develop and new convection is going off directly over the center. Wilma continues to maintain a strong upper-level outflow pattern...one which is forecast to persist by the global models. Continued development is expected...with both the SHIPS and GFDL models making Wilma a major hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean. Once Wilma gets into the Gulf of Mexico...the upper flow will become more hostile as shear increases...and some weakening is therefore expected at that time.
Wilma continues to drift mostly southward...or 190/2. Certainly there has been more southward motion than anticipated...with this possibly associated with the convective asymmetry observed overnight and through much of the day today. However...the core convection has become more symmetric this afternoon...and I am expecting Wilma to soon begin moving slowly westward in better accord with the guidance. The basic synoptic reasoning is unchanged from previous advisories. High pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to weaken as the large low off of Baja California moves eastward. This is expected to allow Wilma to gradually turn northwestward over the next two to three days. For reasons unknown...the model guidance has come into much better agreement this afternoon. The 12z runs of the NOGAPS and UKMET models have shifted northward by about 200 miles and no longer drive Wilma into Belize. The GFS and GFDL...on the other hand...have shifted westward...resulting in a rather narrow guidance envelope rather close to the previous official forecast. Consequently...little change has been made to the previous advisory...except that by the very end of the forecast period Wilma is expected to be encountering westerly flow in the Gulf of Mexico that should force a fairly sharp right turn. How sharp a turn Wilma takes is obviously of interest to all along the eastern Gulf of Mexico...but it is far too early to identify specific areas at greatest risk.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 17/2100z 15.8n 79.9w 45 kt 12hr VT 18/0600z 15.9n 80.7w 55 kt 24hr VT 18/1800z 16.3n 81.8w 65 kt 36hr VT 19/0600z 16.9n 82.8w 75 kt 48hr VT 19/1800z 17.7n 84.0w 85 kt 72hr VT 20/1800z 19.5n 85.5w 100 kt 96hr VT 21/1800z 21.5n 86.5w 100 kt 120hr VT 22/1800z 23.5n 85.0w 90 kt
38 knots is only around 45 MPH. At least, I think so. I don't remember the exact formula for conversion.
Same thought 11 seconds apart :-)
It's roughly 1.15 mph = 1 knot. That particular inbound leg estimated surface winds from sea observation at 35 knots (close to 40 mph) at about the same time they found the 38-knot flight-level wind, but the discussion noted that there was a 51-knot flight-level wind elsewhere in Wilma.
They've kept the sustained surface-level wind at 50 mph.
Florida Gulf Coast is back in the forecast big time.
Florida Gulf Coast is back in the forecast big time.
The 38kt winds were found in the NW quadrant. 51kt winds were found in the SE quadrant.
Who gets the advisory?
Jeb Bush probably just said "Aw crap!"
...Wilma poised to strengthen further...
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Wilma was located near latitude 15.8 north... longitude 79.9 west or about 255 miles... 415 km... south-southeast of Grand Cayman and about 225 miles... 365 km...east-northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua/Honduras border.
Wilma has drifted southward over the past few hours...but a gradual turn to the west is expected over the next 24 hours. Steering currents remain weak and erratic motion is possible during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph... 85 km/hr...with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and Wilma could become a hurricane tomorrow.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles ...110 km from the center.
The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft was 989 mb...29.20 inches.
Wilma is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands...Jamaica...Haiti...and southeastern Cuba...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 3 inches...with isolated amounts of 6 to 10 inches...are possible over Honduras.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...15.8 N... 79.9 W. Movement toward...drifting south. Maximum sustained winds... 50 mph. Minimum central pressure... 989 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
Go for it...I'm getting nervous over here...
Here we go again!
Thanks for the ping-
Prayers up that Wilma stays weak and in Central America.
The bad news is that Florida appears to be in the crosshairs.
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