Posted on 10/16/2005 6:44:31 AM PDT by cloud8
The deadly avian influenza virus found in Turkey and Romania is bound to combine with a human variety at some point and cause a pandemic that would kill around 50,000 people in Britain, the country's chief medical officer has warned.
"The significance of it isn't that there will be a pandemic of bird flu itself, the significance of it is that at some point, and we go by the lessons of history, the bird flu virus will combine with a human flu virus and then it will become easily transmissible," Liam Donaldson told BBC television on Sunday as the government prepared to outline a contingency plan on Thursday.
"Why is that inevitable? Well, because it has happened before."
In the 20th century, there have been three flu pandemics, in 1918-19, when as many as 50 million people died world wide, 1957-58 and 1968-69.
On Saturday the presence of the deadly H5N1 virus bird flu was confirmed in Romania, two days after it was found in Turkey.
Donaldson said that a normal winter flu killed more than 12,000 people in Britain every year.
"But if we had a pandemic, the problem would be that our existing vaccines don't work against it, we would have to develop a new vaccine, and people don't have natural immunity because it hasn't be around before.
"So the estimate we are working to in the number of deaths is around 50,000 excess deaths from flu. But it could be a lot higher than that, it very much depends whether this mutated strain is a mild one or a more serious one."
Donaldson however stressed that the pandemic was "less likely" to occur in Europe this winter.
"The attention is focused in Europe because of these outbreaks. That doesn't mean that the pandemic flu is creeping closer to the UK, it simply means that bird flu is occurring in other parts of the world, as it has over the last five to six years.
"I think the likelihood is still that we will see the epicentre of this pandemic of flu, this mutation, in the Far East," he said.
Although there was no way of preventing an eventual pandemic, the government could "limit its impact" in Britain.
Donaldson added: "That is the whole basis of the contingency plan that we will be releasing on Thursday."
The contingency had begun already with the stockpiling of vaccines, the chief medical officer stressed.
"We are one of the few countries to have embarked on this stockpiling at a very early stage... until now, we have been one of the countries which has been in the lead on this, and it is part of a comprehensive plan," Donaldson said.
The government is attempting to amass 14 million doses of the Tamiflu drug, he noted.
"We have got 2.5 million so far and they are coming in at the rate of about 800,000 a month."
The anti-virals would not cure the flu but would reduce the severity of the attack in the first 24 to 48 hours and would stop some people from dying, Donaldson added.
"I think measures such as controlling movement of populations are not as important, because flu transmits extremely quickly... It might be necessary if we were at the absolute peak of an epidemic in this country, but it is not the prime intervention that we need to use."
However, the government could decide to close schools and other public buildings.
I think there is a good chance of some crossover immunity, if for instance we used the 1918 flu virus which has just been brought to life again.
Thank you for your post.
Didn't they last report that only 62 people have died from it? 62 compared to 12,000 who died from normal flu isn't something I'm going to get my feathers ruffled about.
It's not time to panic yet, but it is something to be concerned about - and much more so than the flu which kills thousands every season.
(snip)
"That is the whole basis of the contingency plan that we will be releasing on Thursday." The contingency had begun already with the stockpiling of vaccines, the chief medical officer stressed
But he said they don't work so why stockpile them ?
My wife puts a little cinnamon in the coffee grounds when she makes coffee. It adds a nice flavor
"May 31, 2005 (CIDRAP News) – Resveratrol, a chemical found in grapes and other fruits, inhibits the reproduction of influenza viruses in cell culture and mice, according to a recent report in the Journal of Infectious Diseases.
My father was born in 1918. My grandmother being pregnant at the time with him. The flu epidemic struck everywhere and the countryside is filled with tombstones dated 1918. My Grandmother moved all the children and farm workers who were extremely ill from this flu in to a large front room parlor and turned it in to a hospital ward. They even had a couple of neighbors who arrived needing care. Those who were well tended the sick. Everyone in their household managed to survive, but others in the community weren't as fortunate.
The same strain has now been identified.
The MSM didn't report that there were 10,000 dead in NOLA. The MSM reported that Nagin, and Vittier, and the National Guard and the Coast Guard said there might be that many.
Same thing here. Reporters aren't sitting around making stuff up. The CDC, the WHO, the EU and the president of the United States are warning of a threat. Italy and other countries in southern Europe are closing their borders to poultry from Turkey and Romania. National governments are stockpiling vaccines. If you believe there's an overreaction, fair enough; but don't blame the messenger.
What did your grandmother do that the rest of the country didn't?
Thanks. I love polyphenols.
My mother was born in 1917 and my father in 1918. We have no input about whether they had the flu but both lived to an old age.
I did a search and there is considerable information on cinnamon as a flu drug.
FYI Ping
Fewer than 150 people have died of bird flu and we've been hearing about it for 1-2 years now. I think it's overhyped fear and I fully realize that the administration and CDC, etc., think it's a fully realized fear.
And, btw, in an interview a few weeks ago, Nagin told reporters that he got the 10,000 feared dead number from the press and he cited a few places he'd seen the number mentioned before he ever said a word.
How much cinnamon is he taking and how is he taking it?
See if he will give you a ballpark dosage by weight.
Cinnamon is also reportedly excellent for sugar metabolism and can keep type 2 diabetes at bay but you need a couple of teaspoons a day.
Longer than that. There was an outbreak of this same strain of bird flu in Hong Kong in the winter of 1997-98 severe enough that it led to the killing and burning or burial of all domestic birds in the city.
The difference between that outbreak and this one is that the '97 cases were concentrated in HK -- this one has already popped up all over Asia, as well as in Romania, Turkey and, as of today, Greece.
I think it's overhyped fear and I fully realize that the administration and CDC, etc., think it's a fully realized fear.
It's a potential problem. Just potential at this stage. But public officials everywhere in the world have a long history of not addressing potential problems unless they are or are about to become crises.
And, btw, in an interview a few weeks ago, Nagin told reporters that he got the 10,000 feared dead number from the press and he cited a few places he'd seen the number mentioned before he ever said a word.
The first reference to the 10,000 figure I have been able to find in connection with Nagin was a reporter asking him about it, and him saying he wouldn't be surprised. He did cite it after that, however.
The first public official I could find using that figure in a declarative sentence was Vitter, though he was careful to label it as a "best guess" and preliminary.
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