Iraq's Constitution Appears Headed Toward Passage Despite Strong Opposition From Sunni Arabs

ap ^ | 10/16/2005 | Sameer Yacoub (ap writer) with Salah Nasrawi in Cairo Egypt

[JustaCowgirl]

BAGHDAD, Iraq -- Iraq's constitution seemed headed toward passage Sunday despite strong opposition from Sunni Arabs, who turned out in surprisingly high numbers in an effort to stop it. The apparent victory was muted, though, by the prospect that the result might divide the country further.

Rejection seemed more unlikely as vote-counting continued across the country. In one key result, Ninevah, one of three crucial northern and central provinces that Sunni Arab opponents pushed hard to swing their way, appeared to have voted "yes" by a considerable margin.

In London, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice predicted the charter was likely to pass, although she cautioned that she did not know the outcome for certain.

If two-thirds of voters in any three of Iraq's 18 provinces voted "no," the charter would be defeated. Sunni Arab opponents hoped to reach that threshold in four provinces: Anbar, Ninevah, Salahuddin and Diyala.

According to a vote count from 260 of Ninevah province's 300 polling stations, about 300,000 people voted for the constitution and 80,000 against, said Samira Mohammed, spokeswoman for the election commission in the provincial capital, Mosul, and Abdul-Ghani Boutani, a senior official in the Kurdistan Democratic Party.

Ballots from the remaining 40 stations still had to be counted, but it would be very difficult to turn the vote around to a two-thirds "no" vote that Sunni opponents would need to defeat the charter.

The constitution is a crucial step in Iraq's transition to democracy after two decades of repressive rule by Saddam Hussein's dictatorship. Washington is hoping it passes so Iraqis can form a legitimate, representative government, tame the insurgency and enable 150,000 U.S. troops to begin withdrawing.

A nationwide majority "yes" vote is assured by the widespread support of the constitution among the Shiites _ who make up 60 percent of the country's estimated 27 million people _ and the Kurds _ another 20 percent.

To defeat the constitution, Sunnis have to muster a two-thirds rejection in any three of Iraq's 18 provinces. They were likely to reach that threshold in the vast Sunni heartland of Anbar province in the west. Salahuddin province also looked possible, but with Ninevah out of the running, they would need to get the province of Diyala, which will also be difficult.

An elections official in Baghdad told The Associated Press that indications point to the charter having been approved. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because the counting was still going on.

Sunnis turned out in force in Saturday's voting, a stark contrast to parliamentary elections in January, which they boycotted as a protest to a political process they felt was handing the country's Shiite majority unfair power. That move cost them, leaving them a minuscule presence in parliament.

The lines of Sunnis at the polls in the key electoral battleground states suggested they wanted to now participate in the political system.

Now the question is whether they will accept the passage of a constitution despite a significant "no" vote among the Sunni community. While moderates could take a more active role in politics, hard-liners could turn to the insurgency, deciding violence is the only hope of retaining influence in the country.

Speaking in London, Rice said "the general assessment that it has probably passed." She said her information came from "people on the ground who are trying to do the numbers, trying to look at where the votes are coming from and so forth."

Abdul-Hussein al-Hendawi, a top official in the elections commission, stressed there were no results yet from Saturday's vote. "We cannot make any prediction, but we hope by tonight we will have an idea about the result of the vote," he said.

Election workers in many provinces were still making their counts, which will be sent along with the ballot boxes full of votes marked on paper to the central counting center in Baghdad's Green Zone to reach the final, certified result. Vote counters in the Green Zone were already compiling votes from the capital and its surroundings.

Sunday morning, two mortars hit Baghdad's Green Zone, the heavily fortified district where U.S. and Iraqi government offices are located including the main center where all the votes from across the country are being counted and compiled. It was not clear if the mortars struck anywhere near the counting center. The blasts raised plumes of smoke from the zone but caused no injuries of significant damage, the U.S. Embassy said.

The attack came shortly after authorities lifted a driving ban imposed on Saturday to try to prevent suicide car bombs during voting. The ban was part of a nationwide security clampdown on Saturday, which turned out to be one of Iraq's most peaceful days in months.

Initial estimates of overall turnout Saturday were 61 percent, election officials said. But competition was more intense in the three most crucial Sunni-dominated provinces _ Diyala, Ninevah, Salahuddin, where more than 66 percent of voters turned out.

Turnout by Shiites and Kurdish in regions outside the most contested provinces appeared lower than in January _ despite calls by the top Shiite cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, for his followers to vote. Still, the nine provinces of the south, the heartland of the Shiites, and the three provinces of the Kurdish autonomous zone in the north were expected to roll in big "yes" numbers.

In Karbala, a Shiite province just south of Baghdad, some 440,000 people voted _ a 60 percent turnout _ and 95 percent of them cast "yes," ballots, according to the head of the election commission office in the province, Safaa al-Mousawi.

An official in the main Shiite political party in the ruling coalition, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, said that the southern Shiite provinces of Najaf and Basra and Baghdad, which has a mixed population, together voted 90 percent "yes." But the official, Haitham al-Husseini did not break down the result in each province.

Most provinces in the south had only "moderate" turnout, between 33 and 66 percent, according to the elections commission. Qadissiyah province was even lower, with less than a third of voters going to the polls. In January, Shiites poured to the polls in huge numbers, well above 80 percent.

The lower participation this time may have been out of belief that success was a sure bet or because of some disillusionment with Iraq's Shiite leadership, which has been in power since April with little easing of Iraq's numerous infrastructure problems.

"My mother insisted to go because she considered that as a religious duty, but not me. She said she cannot disobey al-Sistani. Why should I care? Nothing has changed since we have elected this government, no security, no electricity, no water," said Saad Ibrahim, a Shiite resident of Baghdad's Karrada district.

"The constitution will not change that," he said. "The main issue is not getting this constitution passed, but how to stop terrorism ... Now they had this referendum done, we should expect terrorism back to our streets tomorrow."

Sunni Arabs, who controlled the country under Saddam Hussein, widely opposed the charter, fearing it will break the country into three sections: powerful Kurdish and Shiite mini-states in the oil-rich north and south, and a weak and impoverished Sunni zone in central and western Iraq.

But at the last minute, a major party, the Iraqi Islamic Party, came out in favor of it after amendments were made giving Sunnis the chance to try to make deeper changes later, which may have split Sunni voting.

___

Associated Press reporter Salah Nasrawi in Cairo, Egypt, contributed to this report.

[BlessedByLiberty]

Brilliant post.

This is why the Left continues the drumbeat for the USA & the coalition to pull out of Iraq - and use the old Vietnam buzz words.

The Left needs our defeat as much as the terrorists need us to be defeated - they both crave power as an addict craves his drug of choice and they will do anything - including endangering their own lives - to have that craving satisfied.

[Radix]

Defintely the bombings are designed for influencing Americans.

The media types are the very best friends that the insurgents have these days over there. We don't have to be concerned about the safety of our Media over there by and large because they are mostly all safely holed up in their hotels while under the protection of Iraqi (Yes Iraqi Troops) Troops who are supported by Americans.

Additionally, security is really tight during these processes. Few bombers are likely going to get through the very strong measures.

[Common Tator]

Additionally, security is really tight during these processes. Few bombers are likely going to get through the very strong measures.

WE know suicide bombers are not in short supply in Iraq.

Take five people each with a small bomb and have them all get in line to vote and set them off at the same time.

Have five people in a long line to vote. Have one bomber self detonate... Then as they gather to help those injured, have 4 more bombers set off small bombs in the crowd.

No... Security is of little value if terrorists are willing to give their lives to kill citizens. It is next to impossible to stop.

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

["The constitution will not change that," he said. "The main issue is not getting this constitution passed, but how to stop terrorism ... Now they had this referendum done, we should expect terrorism back to our streets tomorrow." ]

Well, maybe YOU and your fellow citizens of Iraq should DO SOMETHING about that.

[Aquakat]

The media, in no way, represents the prevailing current of thought, influence or activity of mainstream Americans.

Eloquence personified!!!!!

Hence my tag line.

The Media is the enemy of America; ACT ACCORDINGLY.

[BushisTheMan]

Another thought is that not all Sunnis want a return to the days of Saddam. Many were conscripts themselves. Only the Feyadeen, the high ranking officers who benefitted with special favor, and the brutal ones want Saddam back.

[Aquakat]

While they may continue to represent the "mainstream" of the media world, that world, as you so aptly point out, is a very, very small group. Most of the press that I have been in contact with recently, do not have the intellect of my pet rock.

The media, in no way, represents the prevailing current of thought, influence or activity of mainstream Americans.

Eloquence personified!!!!!

Hence my tag line.

The Media is the enemy of America; ACT ACCORDINGLY.

Thats better, one day I will learn to post. LOL

[Mad_Tom_Rackham]

Here's a clue for the MSM, people vote for their own....the Sunni, the Shiite, the black, the white, the red, the Chinese.......this isn't rocket science folks.

Yep. Reminds me of how the Lefties make such a big deal about "the melting pot", "we are the world", etc. ad nauseum, while constantantly pitting one group against the other via "identity politics". And all the while ignoring basic human nature. More proof that Liberalism IS a mental disorder.

[BushisTheMan]

It might be next to impossible to stop, but they did stop 2 women suicide bombers during the voting. How many others were scared off because of the extra security and no cars to use to run away?

However, I agree that the bombings are done to change American minds, not Iraqis. The terrorists are EXTREMELY media savvy...something they learned from their Viet Cong comrades. Just look at how they reacted in the note from Zawahiri about muslims killing muslims...it wasn't going over well in the media.

[jwalsh07]

Thats a great picture, thanks for posting it.

[Redbob]

"Does anyone remember back in 1979 when the Sunnis were the "good" Muslims and the Shiites were the evil Muslims?"

Does anyone remember September 11, 2001?

That date pretty well solidified my opinion of ALL muslims.

[Canard]

"I can't help but consider why the terrorists do not bomb polling places and kill lots of people on election days.

Does it not seem strange that just days and hours after the election, the insurgants are killing innocent Iraqis but do not do so on election days?"

Always look for the obvious explanation. On election day there was heavy security, curfews and cars banned from the streets. Why launch attacks on the day when they will be hardest to pull off?

[Rennes Templar]

Right. Before the US came, Iraq had all the security, electricity and water they wanted, not to mention total freedom of thought and expression -(not). How many millions of Iraqis are happy with new services that we don't hear about?

I am so incensed at the MSM coverage. If they were a political party it would be OK. But they're supposed to be objective reporters. It's not only unfair, its criminal.

[jveritas]

The preliminary results in the four Sunni majority provinces went as follow according to preliminary count of "most votes" in these provinces:

(1) Diyala: Over 70% YES, 20% NO, 10% rejected ballots.

(2) Ninevah: from 260 out of 300 polls counted, 300000 vote YES, 80000 vote NO.

(3) Sallahudine (Tikrit, Saddam Hometown): 71% vote NO.

(4) Anbar (the heart of the terrorist insurgency: Fallujah, Ramadi, Al Qaem, Tal Afar, etc...): Expected that over two third will vote NO.

All other remaining 14 provinces will vote YES on the Constitution draft by over 70% margin.

For the Constitution draft to fail, 3 out of 18 provinces must vote two third NO (each).

[samtheman]

What was front page news today? No, not the Iraq vote. It was how Halliburton's subcontractors are under paying workers in Iraq. Halliburton, Halliburton, Halliburton.

The human race is caught up in an epic struggle between Good and .... Halliburton.

[mainepatsfan]

Even if they took heavy casualties you'd think they would launch major attacks just to get the media coverage.

[mainepatsfan]

It's a good thing the Axis powers didn't get this type of coverage by our media sixty years ago.

[No Blue States]

It looks like Diyala or Ninevah will decide this, or they already have.

Congrats to Iraqis!

[bethtopaz]

this is so cool!! thanks for posting it!

[John Jorsett]

Interesting observation from Murdoc Online: Remember, this was virtually impossible

Recall that it would take many months and many thousands of American lives simply to conquer Iraq.

Recall that, even if we managed to get control, the Iraqi people would never regain their sovereignty.

Recall that, even if we did give Iraq back to the Iraqis, it would simply be a puppet government that ruled.

Recall that, even if the government ever allowed elections, the Iraqi people wouldn't be interested in participating.

Recall that, even if the Iraqis did want to vote, the violence in Iraq would prevent them from doing so.

Recall that, even if elections were held, they would be so corrupt as to be worthless.

Recall that, even if a freely-elected government was formed, they would never be able to keep control.

Recall that, even if a new Iraqi government did manage to run things, they would never agree on a permanent charter.

Recall that, even a charter acceptable to all government leaders was written, the Iraqi voters would never approve it.

Recall that, even if voters did approve a new constitution, it would be without much participation of the Sunnis and would therefore be meaningless.

And now we have this today from AP/MSNBC.com:

Oct. 16, 2005

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Iraq's constitution seemed assured of passage Sunday despite strong opposition from Sunni Arabs who turned out in surprisingly high numbers in an effort to stop it.

The constitution's apparent victory was muted, though, by the prospect that the vote result might divide the country further.

Apparently now that the constitution, with a great deal of Sunni participation, is being approved, it is BAD NEWS.

Let's just say that it's not a worst-case scenario we're looking at here.