5 day forecast shows this becoming a hurricane and taking a sharp turn north, towards the Gulf.Posted on 10/15/2005 1:53:14 PM PDT by Blogger
5 day forecast shows this becoming a hurricane and taking a sharp turn north, towards the Gulf.
I really, really hope you are wrong.
I agree. Looks like SW Florida. As they haven't had enough )o:
I agree. I'm not as knowledgable as some of the posters on hurricanes, but I'm also far from ignorant. I think. I so know that October storms that form in the Caribbean or western Caribbean have historically often recurved right over Florida. The one that sticks in my personal memory is Mitch, that I mentioned earlier. It went right over Key Largo, which makes it a near miss for Miami. I stood in my driveway looking south, watching the lightning and thunder show, which was impressive.
so know = so know
And who the heck wants to get beaten up by a storm named Wilma?
so know = do know...keyboard is becoming spasmodic.
I am pretty disheartened by the news, though I suppose it is not unexpected in light of the way the season has gone. Trying to figure out how to get up my heavy plywood shutters if I need them, since my back went out a couple days ago. Very carefully, I guess.
Did we have a Betty this year? I enjoyed those cartoons right up through college years, but finally outgrew them in my late 50's. I still like the 3 Stooges and Marx Brothers, though.
Thanks for the ping. Watch out western FL... environment looks good down there for a moderate/major hurricane. Not something you want for the end of the list!
It's a damned shame the insurance companies create a scenario where it's best to NOT prepare.
Actually, this is it. There is no Xenia, Yolanda, or Zelda. DOn't know if they have ever gone with Alpha or not. We go to the Greek Alphabet after this though.
I hear you.
But my house, while near the beach, is on high ground and won't be flooded by surge. If my wife and I are going to be inside the house during a strong hurricane, with heavy debris flying around at over 100 mph, I guarantee that I'm going to want those shutters up. I want us to get through in one piece, after all.
But tell me why your flood insurance doesn't cover contents, I definitely don't understand that.
Regarding your safety in relation to the shutters, it's the storm surge that causes the vast majority of deaths. Katrina proved that once again.
As my family copes with the aftermath of Katrina, I would not wish this on anyone. Everthing is changed in the aftermath. It takes all your time, effort and resources for months.
You are correct about the surge being the most dangerous part of a hurricane.
But if they get powerful enough, the winds alone are dangerous and extremely destructive, as Andrew proved when it hit south Dade County, where most of the structural damage occurred without the help of surge. My family and I happened to be in the north eyewall of that hurricane in this same house, so I can attest to what wind alone can do. If you allow it to get into your house, walls can fail, furniture, even full size refrigerators go flying. My neighbors, for instance, who didn't board up for that one, got chased down the hall by a refrigerator. I'm pretty sure letting the wind inside also helps the hurricane get a grip on roofs, which also go flying. And heavy debris, cement roof tiles, large signs, 2x4's, God knows what are all flying around - those things go right through windows - I saw it myself.
Yeah, the aftermath is really depressing and takes forever. The neighborhood will never look the same.
"Watch out western FL..."
When you say "western" Fl., do you mean the Western Peninsula or the Western Panhandle?
Most likely the peninsula, but this yrs storms have loved the northern GOM. There will be a strong trough that will try to kick her east though, so I'd say the peninsula is a better bet.
...Aircraft data indicate depression has not strengthened...
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-four was located near latitude 17.7 north... longitude 79.6 west or about 150 miles... 245 km... southeast of Grand Cayman.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph ... 4 km/hr...and this motion is expected to conitnue for the next 24 hours. However...steering currents remain weak and some erratic motion during the next day or two is possible.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. If it does so...it will tie the record of 21 named storms set in 1933.
The latest minimum central pressure measured by reconnaissance aircraft was 1001 mb...29.56 inches.
The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica...with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...17.7 N... 79.6 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
From what I've been reading, it could concievably be both. (sigh)
...Depression moving very slowly and not yet any stronger...
a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for the Cayman Islands.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Depression Twenty-four was located near latitude 17.7 north... longitude 79.7 west or about 150 miles... 245 km... southeast of Grand Cayman.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 2 mph... 4 km/hr... and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. However... steering currents remain weak and some erratic motion is possible during the next day or two.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr... with higher gusts. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm during the next 24 hours. If it does so... it will tie the record of 21 named storms set in 1933.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb...29.56 inches. NOAA buoy 42057... located about 65 miles west of the circulation center... recently reported a pressure of 1004 mb.
The depression is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 6 inches over the Cayman Islands and Jamaica... with isolated amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible.
Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...17.7 N... 79.7 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 2 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM EDT.
Forecaster Knabb
May it stall over Cuba (and if not, fall apart before it becomes Wilma).
Thank you, dear.
Is it my computer or do you just get what looks like they need new wipers in blueberry rain?
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