How can it be proved "flat wrong" by just the outcome?
If I say there is a 50% chance that heads comes up in a coin toss, or a 1 in 6 chance a "4" comes up on the roll of a single die; would "tails" or rolling a "1" make my probability assement incorrect?
Miers will be confirmed. Fund cannot get her denied by arbitrarily fiddling with the "numbers" or the "chances" that she may not be confirmed. It's a game.