India : Combat aircraft decision may pivot on nuclear co-operation

NEW DELHI, OCT 10: After inking the $3.5 billion Scorpene submarines deal last week, the Centre is now all set to shop for 126 multi-role combat aircraft for which Boeing of US, Dassault of France, Russian MiG RAC and probably an Italian company have already been shortlisted.

The move assumes significance as highly placed sources say India is trying to get closer to US and France through the aircraft deal since both these countries have offered civil and nuclear technology cooperation to India. It is learnt IAF had two months ago placed requests for proposals (RFPs) for the $9 billion 126 multi-role combat aircraft. However, IAF officials declined to name the particular manufacturers to whom it has issued RFPs.

But sources close to the development said that Dassault of France and Boeing are among those who have received RFPs.

Senior IAF officials, however, told FE that the force could issue RFPs to other manufacturers, apart from the initial four, if it thought such a measure was necessary.

RFP is the second stage of acquisition in the procurement process. The initial requests for information (RFIs) had been sent to five manufacturers — US’ Lockheed Martin and Boeing (F-16 and F-18), MiG RAC (MiG-29), Dassault Aviation (Mirage 2000-5) and Sweden’s SaaB (JAS-39 ‘Gripen’).

A few weeks ago, a high-level delegation of Lockheed Martin (F-16s) and Boeing (F-15 and F-18) had come to India to make a presentation to the ministry of defence and the IAF.

According to highly placed sources, the F-16s of Lockheed Martin were never really in the race for the deal. The government had already decided to go in for the Hornets last year. They added that last year itself, the US Department of Defence had given clearance for Raytheon’s APG-63(v)2 Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar which is fitted on Boeing’s F/A-18E/F Super Hornet.

Boeing officials told FE, “We have offered F/A-18E/F Super Hornet for IAF’s consideration and are also offering the co-production of the Super Hornet in India, subject to US government approval.”

Sources revealed that MoD and IAF were impressed by the capabilities of the presentations made by the Boeing on their fighter aircraft, therefore they have been invited for a second round of discussions during the week. A high-level team from Boeing will be here for another round of presentations.

However, experts are apprehensive about Boeing’s offer. Many argue that the US entity, prone to sanctions regime, cannot be a reliable supplier. A senior DRDO scientist remarked: “If you say you don’t trust the Americans for GE-404 engines, how can you say you trust them for the whole aircraft?”

Former air chief S Krishnaswamy told FE, “There is no doubt that what US has to offer IAF are some of their best machines. But the real concern, apart from the constant fear of sanctions, is the version of the machines being offered.”

Another former air chief AY Tipnis said, “The IAF’s evaluation team will have its hands full doing a comparative analysis. The exercise has become near-impossible with the number of parameters —- performance of airframe, engine, radar, a host of electronic sensors and emitters, displays, ordnance stores (air-to-air and air-to-ground) — to be evaluated having increased manifold.

Yep ....especially with Pakistan receiving the new batch of Vipers from us. No way India would go for F-16s.

Now, the F/A-18s are the dark horse of the race. While I still believe the winner will be the Mirage 2000-5/9 (several reasons for this), the SuperHornet is still a very viable contender. As for the MiG-35 (in essence a 'Super-Fulcrum' version of the MiG-29) offer from Russia ...well, it is also a contender, but I doubt it will win. Maintenance costs for normal Fulcrums are pretty high, and thus the new 'super-fulcrum' may also have the same upkeep cost issues. Furthermore India already makes Russia more than happy with the SU-30K/MK/MKI deals, as well as other systems in land, air and sea services, thus Russia would not be too concerned if MiG RAC lost out.

Anyways, this competition will most probably be won by the Mirage 2000-5(9). The SuperHornet may not be leading going into the fourth quarter, but I doubt anyone would be that surprised if it managed to win out at the end (although I wonder how Boeing would be able to compete with all the crazy TOT deals France is throwing India's way ....I doubt we would give India the same leeway in terms of TOT that France has). Anyways, toss up between Mirage and S.Hornet, with the Mirage having (slightly) weighted dice.

The Grippen gave a good presentation (I have a link to the video used in case anyone is interested), but it has to pull a really wicked wild-card to win. The MiG-35 Super-Fulcrum does not need to light as many candles in search of a miracle, but all the same I doubt India will select it (although look for MiGs for India's naval wings once its 3 new carriers come into play some time next decade).

Oh, and if India is offered the F-35 JSF then know for sure that the SuperHornet will win. And you never know ....the Pentagon announced that it is preparing to send an invite to Indian officials to come to Fort Worth for a showing on the F-35 JSF, even though India is a non-member nation in the JSF project. According to a US official: ‘‘In a sense, the programme is closed to non-partner countries. But with the new Indo-US strategic partnership, the US government feels it is appropriate to keep India abreast of the latest technology. It augurs well for future cooperation.’’

This means that the chances for seeing SuperHornets flying Indian colors just went up a good distance. Who knows, maybe France will be crying foul again (like how they did when India chose Boeing passenger-liners over Airbus).

Weren't you busy telling everyone who would listen that Airbus would beat Boeing for the India deal last year?! Wait, let me guess...now you're going to tell us that the Mirage is the odds on favorite.

It ALWAYS amazes me when a Freeper goes all 'warpath mode' ....particularly when that Freeper (you) has the wrong information.

I NEVER said Airbus would beat Boeing last year (or any year for that matter) .....in fact I was one of the people MOCKING the rants by Airbus once Boeing won the deal. And on several threads when the news came out. And in fact even stated a couple of times that maybe France will be moaning next when/if their Mirage 2000 loses out to some other jet. Thus you either have me confused with someone else, or you are simply lying in order to make whatever poin you are trying to assert.

Thus you have that one wrong.

As for the Mirage 2000-5 deal, that is the leading contender. And infact India went ahead and purchased Qatar's stock of Mirage 2000-5s, and some key members of the IAFs head honchos clearly favor the Mirage. And at the bottom of this post is an excerpt that shows which aircraft is the favorite (hint: it starts with an M and ends with 2000-5/9). So, to answer the second part of your post, I am in deed saying that the Mirage is the odds-on favorite. And so does the Indian airforce for that matter.

However I have also maintained that the SuperHornet has a very good chance of winning (but I guess you were too busy reading illusory posts of me saying 'Airbus would beat Boeing' to notice that), and thus wouldn't not be at all surprised if the S.Hornet made the French cry "mommy' again.

And just to reiterate, the Mirage is the leading contender. Like it or not it is. However the SuperHornet could easily get the prize, especially if the US throws in some sweetheart deal (and it is working overtime towards that). Thus it would be to no ones great surprise if the S.Hornet flew with Indian colors (something I believe I also said in my last post, but apparently that part was also invisible). The MiG-29 variant (MiG-35) comes next, but that is a longer-shot due to the maintenance costs for the Fulcrum. It may be cheap to buy but it is expensive to maintain. However the Russians are pulling all the stops trying to sell the super-fulcrum to India, so it is still a possibility. Then comes the Gripen, and the F-16. Both of these are long shots at best , for different reasons.

Going back to the Airbus Boeing deal and the statements you claim i made. That is funny, especially as the premise to you trying to say what I stated on the Mirage 2000 being flawed. It is worse than a strawman argument since it is based on a fallacy. I have laughed at the reactions the French had when India went with big-B, and have put that down on several posts. In fact on one thread I even said that maybe the next thing France will be doing is ranting if their Mirages loose out to another plane for the 126 fighter deal! Yet you say I was claiming boeing would win. Actually one of the positive comments I have made on airbus are probably when i told some freeper who was saying that there safety record was deplorable that in reality Airbus-Boeing safety was more or less comparable, and another time when I said something to the effect that Airbus seemed like it was garnering serious sales in certain areas (when Airbus outsold Boeing for the first time some time back). None of these had anything to do with India, and I never said that Boeing would lose to Airbus.

Oh, and the Mirage is still the lead contender.

An exerpt:Senior Lockheed Martin executive Mike Kelly has now come on record to state that his company was prepared to answer all Indian needs. “If the Indian requirement is beyond any existing fighter planes, we are prepared to make upgraded F-16s to Indian specifications with complete transfer of technology.”

The official and public comments by Lockheed Martin officials, sources pointed out, were now making up for “lost time,” with the company making it apparent that it was very much in the race for bagging this contract. The Indian Air Force is divided about purchasing the F-16s, although as the sources said often “political decisions” override military objections.

Three reasons are cited by senior officers for not opting for the F-16, with the Mirage 2000 still being listed as a top favourite here. One, that there is no certainty that the US Congress will not stop supply of the aircraft or even spare parts at a moment’s notice. Two, the deal might not come with the infrastructural support that is required to make the option viable, and this could run into costs too heavy for the Indian military to bear at this point. And three, it might not be tactically wise to have the same aircraft as Pakistan.

And here is another comment by the Indian AirChief Marshall:

The Indian Air Force’s present strength and equipment status, though far from optimal, is adequate to maintain its advantage vis-a-vis the Pakistan air force (PAF). Together with its overall strength, the operational fleet viability of its two front-line multi-role aircraft, Mirage-2000 and Sukhoi-MK/MKI, is formidable. The numbers of the latter will increase as 140 of them are to be produced indigenously. The strength of the battle-proven Mirage-2000 ought to have been more than the existing two squadrons. We have excellent and extensive maintenance facilities for the Mirages, which can support additional squadrons.

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