Arnold Resurgent? (Survey USA, Five propositions are all leading comfortably with likely voters)

Powerline ^ | October 06, 2005 | John

[Names Ash Housewares]

Arnold Resurgent?

Last summer, I spoke at an event at which Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger also talked. He was in the midst of doing battle with the Democrats in California's legislature and, above all, with the public employee unions, who were spending large amounts of money on advertising. At that time many were saying that his "reform" agenda, embodied in five propositions that will be on the ballot in November, was in deep trouble. Arnold expressed confidence and said that in his bodybuilder days, what he and his competitors most feared was peaking too soon. He argued that his opponents had peaked, and by November the voters would support his reform proposals.

In polling released Tuesday by Survey USA, the five proositions are all leading comfortably with likely voters--one by eleven points, the other four by at least twenty.

The survey only included a little over 500 likely voters on each issue, and there is plenty of time for voter sentiment to change. Still, a month out from the election, Arnold's bet is looking pretty good.

[Names Ash Housewares]

The Unions are nervous. Survey USA predicted pretty close the recall results, and had Arnold beating Bustemente too though Arnold did even better then they predicted on that one.

[SmithL]

1	Asked of 529 Likely Voters
	Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

First, Proposition 73. Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?

59%	Yes
39%	No
2%	Undecided

2	Asked of 528 Likely Voters
	Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

Next, Proposition 74. Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No?

55%	Yes
44%	No
2%	Undecided

3	Asked of 529 Likely Voters
	Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

Next, Proposition 75. Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?

60%	Yes
37%	No
3%	Undecided

4	Asked of 507 Likely Voters
	Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.4%

Next, Proposition 76. Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?

58%	Yes
36%	No
6%	Undecided

5	Asked of 517 Likely Voters
	Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%

Finally, Proposition 77. Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no?

59%	Yes
36%	No
5%	Undecided

[Dont Mention the War]

Excellent news.

[Kay]

Thanks for posting. The liberal media always wants conservatives & their reforms to look like losers.

[Ben Mugged]

California is climbing out of the liberal morass. The pendulum is swinging.....

[RichInOC]

Outstanding. Make it happen.

[marsh_of_mists]

He's been doing a pretty darned good job lately, for a RINO.

[Kay]

Problems could occur if few people go out to vote for a special election. ATST, looks like this is from "likely voters" and those are the people who generally vote in all elections.

[RedFred In A Blue State]

Finally! Maybe my red state will start hueing blue? (hey, a guy can dream can't he?)

[Kay]

Don't hold your breath....

[calcowgirl]

Already posted--a few times.

New! Poll Shows Overwhelming Support for Reform (California Propositions 73-77)
Survey USA via Santa Clara County GOP ^ | 4 October 2005
Posted on 10/04/2005 3:59:59 PM PDT by CounterCounterCulture

California Special Election: Arnold Winning on All Initatives
SurveyUSA ^ | October 3, 2005 | SurveyUSA
Posted on 10/04/2005 11:05:31 PM PDT by furquhart

[Kay]

Did you get that backwards?

[marsh_of_mists]

I think you mixed up your reds and your blues.

[sourcery]

The Unions are nervous.

California: Where the Governor's a body-building action hero, and the Unions are nervous.

[therut]

How about the handgun ban in San Francisco???

[Prost1]

Let's watch the dems stuff the ballots on election day and everyone declare how close the election was...

[Ben Mugged]

I'm a hopeless optimist. I see protesters in the park with "Bush lied" signs, I see adult book stores opening within eyesight of schools, I see children in bible school telling teachers "I don't have to pray, my teacher told me so", I see Mexican nationals flying the Mexican flag on US soil, and yet one guy pulls up next to me at the red light and tells me "I like your Bush / Cheney bumper sticker" and I have hope. I nurture that hope.

[TheDon]

What is everyone's take on Prop 77? Seems like not such a good idea to me. Anyone know how other states deal with this issue?

[clamper1797]

What is everyone's take on Prop 77?

From what I hear ... it's not a good idea ... but I'm still looking into it

[doug from upland]

Prop. 75 will be a combo earthquake/tsunami hitting the union thugs.