Latest pictures out of China of PLANs work on the Carrier Varyag

CHINA.COM Military Pics ^ | 10 Octoner 2005 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

As of this date...I believe so, yes. It will create complications in a conflict ...but controllable and manageable as of this date for sure, short of some ecret technological/asymetrical weaponry we are unaware of.

After 2008, should a democrat come into the White House, the manageable nature of this may not stay the case. The military side of it will still be manageable, but the political side may go south in a hurry...and I believe that is exactly what the PRC hopes for. They hope to influence our politicians where any additional cost associated with helping Taiwan is determnined to be "too much" and therefore warrants only a token defense. In that case, they will accomplish politically what they could not do militarily.

Otherwise, IMHO, they will simply use it to show off the flag, worry their neighbors, and get all the training and experience they can until the can field more of their own carriers.

[EricT.]

What will be interesting is when they sail this thing off the coast of California about 100 miles out.

With a 688-I sitting right below it, ready to punch some holes.

[Barnacle]

With all that fire power, it's a good thing that the Chinese are friendly.

Well they are aren't they? I mean... after all, they make all those nice things they sell so cheap at Wal-Mart.

Yep. That's what I call friendly.

[Jeff Head]

Yep.

...we gladly take your money and build all of our nice toys with it."

I am afraid that one day we'll have to spend American blood wrecking all of these new toys that we built with our money. I pray it does not turn out that way...but they are building new, modern ships at a phenominal rate and I do not believe they intend to just play in the bathtub with them.

[Jeff Head]

Or a Virginia...or better yet, a Seawolf.

[Colorado Doug]

Thanks for the ping

[Colorado Doug]

The real threat from China comes from its air force which makes up for its inferior technology with its enormous size.

I think that underestimates China's asymmetric warfare plans. They are already starting to hit us on a number of economic fronts. I have my suspicions about proxies currently in use as well.

[Colorado Doug]

but cannot underestimate any adversary with the wealth, growing technical and manufacturing expertise, and the enormous number of potential fighters the Chinese have.

I would add "WILL" to your list. They have the will and would not bat an eye at losing a few million of their own people. Our fifth column within would start crying for surrender before we lost even a thousand.

[Jeff Head]

I agree. Between these "spot-on" observations you have made, and all of the proxies they are etting up all around us...should a demo come into the white house...or should it go on too long without a Reagan-like response...we are apt to see some very hard times I fear.

[Colorado Doug]

should a demo come into the white house...or should it go on too long without a Reagan-like response...we are apt to see some very hard times I fear.

The worst case scenario for us is if they get enough of their own bought and paid for hacks into office.

[Jeff Head]

Agreed. They've had it before and its allowed them to leap frog twenty-five years. Follow this link and see what that has allowed them to do...they are embarked on one of the most phenominal, agrresive shipbuilding programs since world war II.

[cva66snipe]

This may well simply prove out to be a diversion to a more deadly program China is putting a lot more money & effort into. It made the 15 second news on some stations but China has been putting men in space. The technology yield alone from successful space missions will put them decades ahead of where they are now sooner rather than later.

China may well be taking one out of the old Soviet Union play book and start causing havoc in our missile defense systems. The carrier may well be a threat in the next decade but the space threat could come much sooner and the technology or means they would need to destroy our defenses one they are in space could be quite primitive indeed.

One of China's most needed assets Navy wise they still are not focusing on or are they? Their main problem is how to get their large Army from point A to point B across water. I'm estimating that in a pinch a carrier could likely transport up to 20,000-25,000 troops provided there is no aircraft on board. Five such Aircraft Carrier's or large ships of equal size {freighters etc} being used for such a purpose would make for considerable trouble if they did manage to off loaded troops successfully. All they would need would be a port let's say in Panama or Mexico to off load the troops.

[Jeff Head]

I believe the Varyag will be at sea by 2008 for the Olympics.

As to their space program, they are advancing very rapidly and that will definitely yeild them a lot of dividends.

Regarding military Amphib capability, they have two hundred anf fifty of these:

Thirty of these:

and about twnety five of these.

...and these. And more building (not including what they would certainly appropriate from their commercial fleets).

[cva66snipe]

We're down to 39 Amphibious ships. They were 200 plus in the 50's and 100 plus in the 60's. Actually our entire Naval Force of total fleet avaible is at an all time low in modern history but you will never convince soome that this is not by any means good. If our fleets are destroyed we no longer have the capabilities on a massive scale to rebuild. We would have to rebuild the facilities and tooling first. China doesn't need advanced technology to be a major problem for us. They have more than enough people to make up for that.

[Jeff Head]

...and they are advancing their technology very rapidly at the same time.

Because of those facts (the ones we have been discussing) which were very clear to me in 1999 and 2000, I wrote the Dragon's Fury Series

[batter]

Thanks for the ping. I took a look when it was posted. Sigh.

[DTwistedSisterS]

I love how the russkies needed a slope on their carriers to take off.