Polish Solidarity duo to face off for presidency

Reuters ^ | 10/10/05 | Pawel Kozlowski

[Valin]

WARSAW (Reuters) - Poles picked two centre-right candidates with roots in the Solidarity movement for a run-off presidential ballot on October 23, which may be decided by leftist voters suspicious of both contenders.

Exit polls and partial results of Sunday's election gave free-market enthusiast Donald Tusk around 36 percent of the vote, a 3-point lead over conservative Lech Kaczynski, but short of the 50 percent needed to avoid a second round of voting.

Both finished well ahead of 10 other candidates, cementing a swing to the right in Poland after their parties trounced the scandal-tainted ruling left in parliamentary polls last month.

Markets should be relieved on Monday that reformer Tusk came in ahead of Kaczynski, who campaigned hard on a promise to protect the welfare state in the European Union newcomer.

Analysts say those who backed populists and leftists on Sunday hold the key, and both rivals reached out to those frustrated by the hardships of Poland's long trek into the

EU.

"The second round could be decided by who will gain votes from the voters who want the state to take care of them," said sociologist and commentator Edmund Wnuk-Lipinski.

Analysts said Kaczynski's economic programme may be more attractive for orphaned leftists and populists than Tusk's offer, but some voters may be afraid of the conservative's fiery anticommunist rhetoric and close links to the religious right.

Kaczynski, 56, hit hard his top campaign themes -- a clear break with post-communist Poland, the "Third Republic" he says was marred by cronyism and corruption and his defence of the welfare state against "liberal economic experiments".

Tusk, 48, appeals to better-educated, more affluent Poles who see EU membership and free markets as an opportunity rather than a threat, but also tried to reach out to those who fear change.

Outgoing President Aleksander Kwasniewski -- Poland's most popular leftist, who cannot run for a third term -- declined to say who he would vote for in the second round but earlier signalled he would back moderate Tusk over Kaczynski.

"Tusk's lead, which suggests he will win in the second round, will mean a stronger position in the government for his party, the Civic Platform -- which would be well-received by the markets," said Katarzyna Zajdel-Kurowska of Citibank.

The rivalry between Tusk and Kaczynski has complicated their parties' efforts to form a coalition government and agree a programme to revive growth and cut unemployment.

Far-left populist Andrzej Lepper came third with around 13 percent of the vote. Marek Borowski, a Social Democrat, got some 10 percent, despite an endorsement from Kwasniewski.

Polish presidents have little direct influence over economic or social policy, but the vote will determine the balance of power in the next coalition and therefore the scope and speed of reforms in the nation of 38 million people.