Posted on 10/04/2005 11:05:31 PM PDT by furquhart
Here Are The Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #7043
Geography Surveyed: California Data Collected: 09/30/2005 - 10/02/2005 Release Date: 10/03/2005 12:25 PM ET Sponsoring News Organizations: KABC-TV Los Angeles, KGTV-TV San Diego, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KXTV-TV Sacramento
Analysis: In an election today, 10/3/05, 36 days to the 11/8/05 vote, California voters approve Proposition 73, Proposition 74, Proposition 75, Proposition 76 and Proposition 77, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll of 532 likely voters. Proposition 74, on teacher tenure, passes today by 11 points, 55% to 44%. Propositions 73, 75, 76, and 77 all pass by at least 20 points. Republicans support all 5 Propositions by at least a 57-point margin. Democrats oppose all 5 Propositions by at least a 10-point margin. Support for all 5 measures is strongly tied to approval of Governor Schwarzenegger. Those who approve of the job the Governor is doing, vote overwhelming "Yes" on all 5 Propositions. Those who disapprove of the job the Governor is doing oppose all 5 Propositions. Interest in ballot measures intensifies as the election approaches and ad dollars are spent to influence voters. These numbers can and should be expected to fluctuate, perhaps significantly.
Filtering: 1,200 California adults were interviewed 9/30/05 - 10/2/05. Of them, 989 were registered voters. Of them, 529 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 73. 528 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 74. 529 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 75. 507 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 76. 517 were judged to be "likely" voters on Proposition 77. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters.
Introductory Question Text: On November 8th, California will hold a special election. We're going to ask about some of the Propositions on the ballot....
Related Research: In an entirely separate SurveyUSA public opinion poll conducted of 600 state of California adults 9/29/05, 68% said the issue of gay marriage should be decided by California voters, and 63% supported Governor Schwarzenegger's veto of a bill to legalize gay marriage.
1 Asked of 529 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%
First, Proposition 73. Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?
59% Yes 39% No 2% Undecided
2 Asked of 528 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%
Next, Proposition 74. Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No?
55% Yes 44% No 2% Undecided
3 Asked of 529 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%
Next, Proposition 75. Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?
60% Yes 37% No 3% Undecided
4 Asked of 507 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.4%
Next, Proposition 76. Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?
58% Yes 36% No 6% Undecided
5 Asked of 517 Likely Voters Margin of Sampling Error for this question = ± 4.3%
Finally, Proposition 77. Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no?
59% Yes 36% No 5% Undecided
x Complete Interactive Crosstabs i Statement of Methodology ! © 2005 SurveyUSA / Contractual Obligations
That's a surprise. Last I heard, except for one they were all tanking.
That's what I heard too.
Though I understand that the pro-sides have started advertising - perhaps that has something to do with it.
In general, I'd say that SurveyUSA is the best state-level pollster based upon what I recall from the last few cycles.
I think it is breaking news... the democrats only opposed all 5 by a 10 point margin....
That shows a shift to common sense in california.
Um...huge sample here. [/sarcasm] Seriously, I'm a little 'Polled' out right now. Not to mention the fact that, unless all the other polls were wrong, I don't beleive that there would be this HUGE change from most of them losing (except for Paycheck Protection, maybe Redistricting, and the Drug Props) to all suddenly be passing.
Not that I trust any polls except the one on election day, but still, this one looks a little suspicious.
Not bad for the Son of a nazi -as Katie Couric called him a few years ago.
None of us should forget what the media did to Arnold. Ever.
And we should also beware what they'll do after these newsbites make the airwaves. The left will get even dirtier whenever a republican succeeds.
532 is a decent-sized sample for a state-level poll.
But I also see now, upon furthing searching, that this was already posted - so I suppose it can be pulled.
Yep. The unions have spent untold millions on TV, radio and billboard ads slamming Arnold (and to a lesser extent these initiatives) for months now. Over the last two weeks or so there have finally been some pro-reform ads, and Arnold is starting to push them personally. It's an amazing turnaround, and our side has just begun to fight back.
Since the poll is of likely voters it is possible that the original sample had around 1000 adults and turnout is predicted to be incredibly low.
Survey USA nailed the nailed the recall election in California in 2003.
Figures don't lie, but liars often figure.
He'll...be...back...
Next, Proposition 75. Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?
60% Yes 37% No 3% Undecided
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This is the real kicker... But watch the unions weasle their way around it if it passes. It is really amazing that 37 percent of folks think this sort of thing should be going on...
(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)
Quite. Paycheck protection is the vital one here. If it passes in California, it'll hopefully spread all over the place. California, of course, is often the launcher of trends.
In that case, I give this poll a little more credibility (when I don't give polls much of it in the first place). And I do want to be optimistic that we are winning this, and all the millions the unions spent were wasted. However, after hearing that Arnold was going down, and his initiatives were failing from the MSM, the idea that SUDDENLY, we have a turnaround seemed...off.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, DON'T trust the MSM. But they wouldn't be drumming it up as intensely as they do if it wasn't at least partially true...right?
(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)
Especially this one
Next, Proposition 75. Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?
60% Yes 37% No 3% Undecided
That raises the bar agains public unions raising money for the Rats unless they get permission. Presumably they will try to get a blanket authorization from their members, but this is a foot in the door, and it will be hard to undo. Imagine trying to pass a law saying unions had blanket permission to do as they see fit with union dues! Very hard sell.
Now its time to start working on forbidding public unions from ANY contribrutions. After all, its a HUGE conflict of interest for unions to give money to the same people they will be bargaining with.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1496640/posts
New! Poll Shows Overwhelming Support for Reform (California Propositions 73-77)
Survey USA via Santa Clara County GOP ^ | 4 October 2005
Posted on 10/04/2005 3:59:59 PM PDT by CounterCounterCulture
The CA MSM has been trashing the Gov along with the HUGH ad campaign against him all year.
Looks like the Union thugs have waisted a lot of money Ha ha ha.
Thanks for beating me to linking. :-)
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