There must have been some kind of disconnect on this thread. A poster stated person to person spreading. I merely asked for proof. So far, none.
Hi, if I may interject?
There have been a few cases of person to person spread, in Vietnam and in Jakarta. They do not fit the definition of pandemic spread, as they are mostly within families. Furthermore, there is no evidence that the index patient in each case has spread to patient #2, and then that patient #2 has infected someone else. So far, it stops at patient #2.
You can believe me or not, but I have kept up on this issue for literally months, at this site and others. There is a lot of precise information in the links found at the Avian Flu Surveillance Project thread. If you do a search for that title, you'll find it. There are countless links there.
There is, however, a significant chance that as more animals and people are infected with H5N1 (and Jakarta has a large outbreak from a zoo) a recombination of H5N1 and another influenza virus already present in the same person will occur. Viruses do this.
At that point, the deadly pandemic that most are concerned about will begin. Ordinary flu is extraordinarily contagious, and when combined with the morbidity and mortality of bird flu, the outlook is serious. WHO, the CDC, China, Great Britain, New Zealand, Australia, and many other countries are greatly concerned and attempting to stockpile Tamiflu, Relenza, and other antiviral drugs as quickly as possible. There are few Tamiflu manufacturers, and it takes an entire year to manufacture a batch. Furthermore, there are signs that Tamiflu is losing its effectiveness as a treatment for influenza.
You may not wish to do all the looking and learning that we've done, and that's fine. Draw your own conclusions, it's no problem. I'm not trying to convince anyone, but I'm happy to share information.
I can't argue with your premise.
As far as i know, and I'm not up on this 100%, there have been some scares, some investigations of the reported possibility, but thus-far, there have not been any transmissions that fit the definition of a beginning pandemic.
Members of families have indeed caught the bug, but the transmission method does not yet fit what they are fearful of.
Keep in mind that the Chinese have a nasty habit of not telling anyone until the crap hits the fan. Also, the rumors are thick.
But you are right, I don't think there is an affirmed reported case of person to person that does not involve some other method of transmission and that sorta confuses the issue a bit.
But it does not mean that it won't happen. This thing is akin to a tropical depression where all the other weather factors say it will become a hurricane.
But so far, they have kept a lid on it.