" And with a conservative, you are in danger of losing the swing states."
Yes, because that a happened in 1980, 1984, and in 1988 when people thought GHWB was actually a conservative.
Things went so well in 1976, 1992 and 1996 when the base was unmotivated for the republican candidate.
You win with your base - the 'swing' voters follow the leader - they don't make you a leader.
These are very bad examples to use when trying to make a historical point. The GOP was doomed in 1976 because it was the first election after Watergate -- and Ford couldn't even run as a credible incumbent because he hadn't even been elected as Vice President, let alone President.
If anything, 1992 and 1996 confirm the enduring popularity of conservatism in this country. Bill Clinton would have spent the last 13 years living in a trailer in Arkansas if it hadn't been for Ross Perot's third-party run in 1992 -- and Clinton couldn't even get 50% of the popular vote at the height of his popularity in 1996.