[Godzilla]

Hi JP. Since WND and some others put out the October Nuke surprise report, I've been very skeptical. This is the 3d Ramadan for TM and it seems we are ratcheted up on rumors. AQ with nukes IMHO is low probability. A higher probability would be a country wide series of smaller attacks in malls, entertainment facilities (disneyland, etc) and sporting events.

[appalachian_dweller]

>> country wide series of smaller attacks in malls, entertainment facilities (disneyland, etc) and sporting events <<

That's what I'm expecting.

IMHO, AQ's capabilities have been greatly diminished by our actions in Afghanistan and we're killing terrorists in droves in Iraq. That is keeping them busy so they don't have the time to really plan attacks on our home soil.

Given the history and situation in Pakistan and Iran, I'm not totally discounting the threat of a nuke popping somewhere on US soil, but again IMHO, the chances of a that are about 5%. BUT, that only covers THIS rama-dama-ding-dong.

IF radical muslims happen to stage a success coup in Pakistan, this entire situation will change drastically - for the worse.

[brucecw]

Since WND and some others put out the October Nuke surprise report, I've been very skeptical. This is the 3d Ramadan for TM and it seems we are ratcheted up on rumors. AQ with nukes IMHO is low probability.

Let's hope so. They haven't given a lot of indication that they understand the technical details of nuclear bombs - one of their "source materials" found in Afganistan was a reprint from the Journal of Irreproduceable Results for crying out loud. (The Journal was a publication - no longer published - that printed humourous scientific satire). However it's likely that they have at least some members who are more sophisticated and less gullible.

What's more likely is a series of "dirty bombs" - this is much easier (a simple dirty bomb could be built by any reasonably bright high school or even junior high kid who had access to radioactive materials). It would also be in keeping with their usually inflated rhetoric, where the destruction of the Twin Towers was magnified into the conquest of New York. Though it would still be no picnic - a few dirty bombs could cause a huge amount of disruption especially if they dispersed enough radioactive material, but they wouldn't produce anywhere near the destruction of a nuclear bomb or two.

However the clock is ticking for their plans - if they want to claim the mantle of the Mahdi and the new Caliphate, they need to do so soon. Going by the astrological signs that have been claimed for the emergence of the Mahdi, the years 2003-2006 are critical. The astrological signs won't have this good a match for hundreds of years - if they don't make much of a mark soon, it will be that much harder to convince the less fanatical Muslims that they're really the movement of the Mahdi. It is quite clear that they'd very much like to cast themselves in that role.