Posted on 10/01/2005 7:36:05 AM PDT by NautiNurse
...Twentieth tropical depression of the season forms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea... ...Tropical storm watch and warning issued for the Yucatan...
at 10 am CDT...1500z... the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta gruesa northward to Cabo Catoche.
At 10 am CDT... the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for the northwestern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche westward to Campeche.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 10 am CDT...1500z...the broad center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 19.3 north... longitude 85.8 west or about 125 miles... 205 km... east-southeast of Tulum Mexico and about 110 miles... 175 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph ... 9 km/hr... and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. However... the depression is still in the formative stage... so some erratic motion may occur. On the forecast track... this system is expected to make landfall along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or early Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall occurs... and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to assess the actual strength of the system.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches... with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches... will be possible across the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize.
Repeating the 10 am CDT position...19.3 N... 85.8 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 30 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM CDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Hang in there. Keeping you in my thoughts and prayers.
Given how the last couple have trended to their right of the initial projections, the folks from the Valley to Victoria probably shouldn't relax yet.
It's going well considering. We have excellent leaders in our neck of the woods. We are NOT New Orleans. So far noone in my family has lost their homes which is a miracle because most have large old trees on their property. There are so many homes though that are severely damaged or totally demolished from the trees. They have arrested at least one tree removal company for looting. So the out of state vultures have arrived.
Have heard that before. Wife said no more hurricanes, it is unacceptable.
Good, looks like Bush and Rove are finally using their weather modification machine to attack Mexico. There's one going after Baja California as well.
...Depression becoming better organized and strengthening...
a Tropical Storm Warning for the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta gruesa northward to Cabo Catoche.
A tropical storm watch for the northwestern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo Catoche westward to Campeche.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 1 PM CDT...1800z...the broad center of Tropical Depression Twenty was located near latitude 19.3 north... longitude 85.8 west or about 125 miles... 205 km... east-southeast of Tulum Mexico and about 110 miles... 175 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.
The depression has been stationery... but a motion toward the west-northwest near 6 mph...9 km/hr... is expected to begin later today and continue for the next 24 hours. However... the depression is still in the formative stage... so some erratic motion may occur. On the forecast track... this system is forecast to make landfall along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight or early Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall occurs... and the depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. During the past hour... NOAA buoy 42056 located north of the center briefly reported a sustained wind of 36 mph...58 km/hr. An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to better assess the actual strength of the system.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches... with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches... will be possible across the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Belize.
Repeating the 1 PM CDT position...19.3 N... 85.8 W. Movement stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 4 PM CDT.
Forecaster Stewart
twenty, you say? I still have spring water from post-Dennis. I hope "twenty" poops out.
Depending upon tracks, could be a Stan or a Tammy.
Would someone please tell me about the 'LBAR' track at this link?
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
I hope to hear LBAR is often wrong because it shows it going right thru my home.
LBAR -- Limited BARotropic. Limited alright, limited in its ability to forecast tropical cyclones. Generally ignore it.
Thank you!! That is just what I wanted to hear. lol
Bookmark
Wow!
http://insider.washingtontimes.com/articles/view_upi.php?StoryID=20051002-073019-4556r
Tropical storm Stan hits Mexico
By Joseph Chrysdale
Oct. 2, 2005 at 8:08AM
Miami, Oct. 2 (UPI) — Tropical storm Stan washed over the Mexican Yucatan peninsula Sunday with winds of 45 mph as another tropical depression developed over the Atlantic Ocean.
At 8 a.m. EDT, the center of Stan was 75 miles south-southwest of Cozumel, moving west-northwest at 6 mph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami reported. Rainfall ranging from 5 to 10 inches was predicted.
The system was expected to weaken to a tropical depression while over land, but could "re-strengthen to a tropical storm after emerging over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early Monday," forecasters said.
Meanwhile, tropical depression 19 was described as "poorly organized" over the Atlantic, about 715 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. The storm front was moving north-northwest at 8 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph, although strengthening was expected.
Mexico will see another dose of Stan as long as it survives the Yucatan crossing. SE Texas appears out of the picture at this point.
Local Orlando news is saying that the moisture on the east coast of Florida will affect our weather all week with rain off and on and then..GO INTO THE GULF! AT THAT POINT IT BEARS WATCHING ACCORDING TO THE METEROLOGISTS.
My BIL lives out in the country around Liberty. He's been told it may be a month before he gets power back. He came and borrowed our generator.
It's gusty here today. Must just be nice Gulf breezes.
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