Replies

Tropical Depression Twenty Intermediate Advisory Number 1a
Statement as of 1:00 PM CDT on October 01, 2005


...Depression becoming better organized and strengthening...

 
a Tropical Storm Warning for the eastern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula from Punta gruesa northward to Cabo Catoche.

 
A tropical storm watch for the northwestern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula from Cabo Catoche westward to Campeche.

 
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 1 PM CDT...1800z...the broad center of Tropical Depression
Twenty was located near latitude 19.3 north... longitude 85.8 west
or about 125 miles... 205 km... east-southeast of Tulum Mexico and
about 110 miles... 175 km...southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

 
The depression has been stationery... but a motion toward the
west-northwest near  6 mph...9 km/hr... is expected to begin later
today and continue for the next 24 hours. However... the depression
is still in the formative stage... so some erratic motion may
occur. On the forecast track... this system is forecast to make
landfall along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight
or early Sunday.

 
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast before landfall occurs... and
the depression could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight. During the past hour... NOAA buoy 42056 located north of
the center briefly reported a sustained wind of 36 mph...58 km/hr.
An Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft is enroute to
better assess the actual strength of the system.

 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

 
Total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches... with isolated
maximum amounts of 15 inches... will be possible across the Yucatan
Peninsula and northern Belize.

 
Repeating the 1 PM CDT position...19.3 N... 85.8 W.  Movement
stationary.  Maximum sustained winds... 35 mph.  
Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

 
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at 4 PM CDT.

 
Forecaster Stewart