Posted on 09/27/2005 8:33:38 AM PDT by Aetius
September 27, 2005, 8:07 a.m. Right Nodding The McCain 2008 goal.
Katrina has indeed altered our political landscape: For the first time in years, conservatives have listened to Arizona Sen. John McCain talk about a high-profile domestic issue and have nodded their heads vigorously. The maverick Republican made his reputation by bucking his own party, especially its conservative base, and, after his failed 2000 nomination bid, seemed to want to make a career out of it. Democrats fantasized about a Kerry-McCain ticket in 2004, as McCain occupied his own little world of resentment at how the 2000 nomination had supposedly been stolen from him and of a “progressive” Republicanism at times difficult to distinguish from Democratic orthodoxy.
After Katrina and the countless billions of dollars that began pouring toward the Gulf Coast, conservatives clamored for spending offsets elsewhere in the budget, and there was McCain right there with them, excoriating pork-barrel spending (as he always has) and calling for repeal of the massive new Medicare prescription-drug entitlement. In a major battle between conservatives in Congress who want to cut spending and the party’s leadership, which is — to put it mildly — unenthusiastic about the prospect, McCain is with the conservative rebels.
This is so important because, if he runs, McCain is probably the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008. But he’s an odd front-runner, a front-runner whose campaign is almost certainly doomed unless he handles conservatives better than he did in 2000. McCain will come out of the gate with formidable assets, among them near-universal name recognition, media adulation and credibility as a serious candidate. But if he again lets another major candidate get to his right on nearly everything — as he let President Bush in 2000 — his campaign will again attract independents, but not the Republicans who are by definition necessary to win the Republican nomination.
So McCain is in a different game from other potential candidates. They need money, media attention, and insider buzz. McCain needs the Right to stop loathing him, and he seems to realize it.
When McCain went out on the campaign trail with Bush — whom he held in contempt for years after 2000 — and gave him bearhugs, it was clear that the senator’s presidential ambitions hadn’t died. It is hard to believe that those hugs were heart-felt. Indeed, McCain’s campaign will strain his capacities for insincerity. If a second marriage is the triumph of hope over experience, a second McCain presidential campaign, to be successful, will have to be the triumph of experience over the candidate’s own predilections.
McCain’s natural constituency is the bookers on Hardball With Chris Matthews, or any other public-affairs show; he is “controversial,” while usually managing to say what the media wants to hear. In 2000, it became clear his grand goal was to blow up the current Republican coalition and craft something new, although it was left vague what exactly. He has never demonstrated great affection for social conservatives, whom he blasted in 2000. But he can work around these things. He recently endorsed teaching Intelligent Design in schools, although he probably has as much sympathy for this critique of evolution as the New York Times editorial board does.
McCain will be the strongest performing Republican against Hillary Clinton in early opinion polls; if anything, he is more aggressive on the war on terror than Bush is; he will have a strong theme of returning to a cleaner Republicanism after the ethical lapses of the current congressional majority. And all of this will be wrapped in his appealing thematic mix of patriotism, sacrifice and duty.
The problem for McCain is that he has such a richly layered history of apostasy, including on conservative gospel like the Bush tax cuts. Some of it is of recent vintage, for instance the enforcement-less immigration bill he is co-sponsoring with Ted Kennedy. A strong conservative candidate who unites the Right can take him down. But for that candidate, the less conservatives nod their heads at anything McCain has to say, the better.
I agree that he is untrustworthy. And even if he did make the promises I suggest, I don't think for one second that he would necessarily keep them once he got to nominate a SCOTUS judge.
But the promise to nominate conservative judges who won't legislate from the bench has been a part (to varying degrees) of every GOP Presidential campaign since at least Reagan. The base has believed these promises, and we were duped. We got just two good justices out of five picks, with the current pick, Roberts, remaining a mystery.
I may be crazy, but if McCain the 'tell it like it is maverick' made a similar promise, then I think people would buy it.
And I've thought ever since 2000 that the media's love and adoration for McCain would take serious hit if he were to actually win the nomination. Afterall, its one thing for the media to support a Republican when he's facing off against evil fellow Repulicans, but its another thing entirely when he faces their preferred Democrats. The only question is whether the support and good press would completely evaporate, or if it would hold to a level that for a Republican at least, is good?
And McCain would never be my first pick. There are several potential GOP candidates I'd much prefer.
But if he did win the nomination and he faced off against Hillary, then if I voted I would vote for McCain, and even if I didnt' vote I would pull for McCain in that circumstance. With McCain there would at least be a small chance that good justices would be appointed to the federal bench, whereas with Hillary there is no chance; the Democrats haven't screwed up and picked a good Sup Court justice since JFK's selection of Byron White.
It may seem as though I am fixated on the judiciary at the expense of other issues. To an extent I would agree with that assessment, but on the other hand,since we live under a system of judicial supremacy, I don't think its possible to pay too much attention to it.
I understand that Racicot wanted to go off into the private sector to provide financial security for his family. You can't blame the guy for that, but he could have beaten Max Baucas and chose not to run, and I think many in the party will remember that if he were to run for President.
I like George Allen, and though I need to read up more on him, my gut reaction to the early stable of possible contenders is to favor him over the rest.
The thing about Rick Perry that worries me is the fear that he would be as bad as Bush on immigration. And there may be a Texas-fatigue factor that would work against him. He should focus on winning relection next year, and then running for Senate if Hutchinson should retire sometime after that.
I think McCain's HUGE weakness remains immigration. He is too "open-border." If he were a Tancredo-ite, the nomination would already be his.
McCain is not to be trusted.
I wore my asbestos suit in this morning, anticipating such a posting...so here goes: If McCain were president instead of Bush..
1) Iraq would have been won by now;
2) Incompetent FEMA heads would have never been appointed;
3) We would not be faced with incontrollable deficits;
4) There would be a veto proof Senate for GOP;
5) RATs would be abandoning their Democratic party faster than a priest at a strip club!
The repubs who vote in primaries in red states would not buy it.
Primary voters are a small subset of voters and they are both more politically aware and more conservative than registered Republican voters as a whole.
McCain has no chance with them at all. He has pi$$ed on them many times and they have long memories. He is also too old and he looks it, unlike RR.
The leftist media loves him because he stabs the base in the back with predictable reliability, but the truth is, he hasn't enough charm to schmooze the base on the primary circuit, doesn't matter how much journalistic KY jelly the media heaps on him.
The judge issue is not even close to being solved and certainly not be 2008. Probably the only way Bush gets another pick is if one of the Justices dies, and I don't see that happening soon.
I can't imagine a more un-Amercian concept than silencing speech. He should be fought tooth-and-nail in the primaries.
I would not bet on too many of those. McCain's biggest problem was he surrounded himself with a bunch of RINO advisors. McCain's lead advisor was the main player convincing Bush Sr. that Souter was a conservative, eventhough he knew otherwise. Considering the company McCain keeps, those predictions would be highly unlikely.
McCain would do nothing about the deficit; McCain would do NOTHING different in Iraq; but one thing is true. We'd be overrun by our brown amigos by now, far more than we are. He's a loser.
Just watch. Judges will not be an issue by 2008 - - - except as they might be involved in ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION, which will be the issue.
...You're speaking, of course, of Warren Rudman--one of the most conservative senators to have ever served. Souter was Rudman's deputy when he was Atty. Gen. of N.H., so it's true that he backed Souter's appointment. HOWEVER, Bush the Elder was advised not to nominate him by plenty of other voices (Jesse Helms among them) who viewed Souter as a bit too effeminate (if not outright homosexual) but Bush The Elder went ahead an did so anyway and, THEREFORE, he was at the place where the proverbial buck stops. Although I voted for them 3-out-of-3 times, I wish the Bushes (both Poppy and Shrub) would be a bit more accountable when it came to things they are responsible for--McCain, at least, is!
Should McCain choose to run for the GOP nomination in 2008, I don't know if he'll get this conservatives support. OTOH. If McCain wins the GOP nomination, I don't see how conservatives can't vote for the mavarick one. What's the alternative? The choices are limited. Pro-choice liberal, centrist, moderate. A third party loser. McCain does have a long way to go to impress conservatives. His rhetoric on pork barrel spending is right on the money. Mccain is pro-military and pro-life. But actions speak louder then words. McCain has to offer more then just media driven platitudes.
"McCain does not look healthy enough to be President".
He also is not sane, honest or smart enough.
My knowledge of Rudman, admittedly somewhat limited, is he was in fact one of the most liberal GOP Senators of all time. If you can find somewhere that show Rudman was conservative, I would appreciate it. But everything I have seen on the man suggests Rudman and Souter are liberal clones.
I don't think anyone knows the *real* John McCain. What appears above the surface makes me not want to have to find out what he tries to keep submerged.
Bingo. You win the prize. This is exactly the problem. McCain has a lot of emotional baggage inside. I can just feel it in some of his reactions. He has axes to grind. I think if Prez he would be a vendetta type who would go after anyone he perceives as his enemy. In spite of that joking, witty exterior, he has a mean streak. He holds grudges, as we all know; his grudge against Bush was overt. I just wouldn't trust this man with his finger on the button. I don't know why, but everytime I think about McCain, I think of Dr. Strangelove.
You say that as if those are requirements to be President.
I'd rather see Hillary as president than McCain.
Nyet.
He voted to ban gun shows.
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