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To: wagglebee

While i do not believe that human caused global warming has been proved, this is a badly researched article.

For one thing global temperatures declined during the 1800's and stop increasing between 1945 and 1976 so the periods of time being compared are not the right ones if you want to see tha changes.

Another problem is that the article does not consider hurricane cycles.

A final problem is that he fails to look at the strength of hurricanes. Category 4 or 5 stoprms have increased from about 10 a year to almost 20 a year since 1970.


8 posted on 09/25/2005 12:46:34 PM PDT by gondramB ( A government which robs Peter to pay Paul, can always count on the support of Paul)
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To: gondramB

20 category 4-5 per year since 1970? It is a big year if we have 20 per year of all categories, let alone 20 category 4-5.


17 posted on 09/25/2005 1:15:11 PM PDT by Binghamton_native
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To: gondramB; wagglebee
> A final problem is that he fails to look at the strength of hurricanes. Category 4 or 5 stoprms have increased from about 10 a year to almost 20 a year since 1970.

While that may be true (I don't have figures in front of me), there are multiple things that can contribute to increased recorded strength of storms. First, the surface water temps in certain areas (such as the Gulf) -are- higher, which gives storms the ability to get to Cat4 or Cat5; but there's no relationship between those temps and what we think of as global warming. Also, we have much-improved ability to measure and view storms now -- our metrics have effectively gotten better changed. Was Rita a Cat5 storm (she was, at her peak) or a Cat3 storm (when she landed)? All depends on whether you're able to get that transient Cat5 reading at the right time in the right place.

We're looking through a very short-interval window, viewing the "noise" wiggles on a function (global weather patterns) that has multiple interacting earth-temperature cycles, some of which are significantly longer than recorded history. It's just silly (and IMO unscientific) to go around with such a short-term view of something as big and slow as the earth.

Sure, the "noise" is of concern to us -- we're living in it, and it affects us. But there's not a damn thing we can do to change global weather patterns, realistically.

Personally I think the earth -is- in a warming part of a cycle, though not due primarily to human activities. While reducing pollution and emissions is a nice goal, it's because the air will be more pleasant to breathe, not because it's going to make a perceptible difference in global weather. Thinking we have that much effect on Mother Nature -globally- is just so much arrogant p*ssing into the wind.

18 posted on 09/25/2005 1:17:42 PM PDT by dayglored (Listen. Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government.)
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