Posted by AFPhys to jeffers
On News/Activism ^ 09/24/2005 2:15:36 PM EDT · 225 of 1,083
I've seen the 360º predictions on some of those models. I simply don't believe them.
My : I believe they are acting like early "computer chess" programs which, in unclear positions, randomly moved their king back and forth. The lack of strong steering currents has hold of their logic now, but the GFS seems less prone to that. For that reason, I believe the GFS since more (not all) history supports that.
(I certainly had to use "I believe" a whole bunch in that paragraph, didn't I? ...LOL)
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These poor models just don't know how to behave when their input conditions are "weak", and they do random oscillations that result in things like loops, that are actually very rare.
Yes, there certainly is a discrepancy between Weather Underground and AccuWeather, wow!
Some of'em are more trustworthy short time than long range, too...Loops are rare...Juan did one, and Ivan did one...lets hope Rita doesn't do one.
But Phillipe's remains are possibly going to form a new tropical system. Wonder if they'll rename it or go back to Phillipe?
hmmm... that was supposed to be something like:
My < strongly held belief> ...
(I've got to be more careful about those <'s ...)