Posted on 09/24/2005 8:02:12 AM PDT by SirLinksalot
Nine Fads to Ignore
(IN NO PARTICULAR ORDER)
By Business 2.0 Staff, October 2005 Issue
1. PODCASTING Yes, it’s nice to get MP3s downloaded to your iPod. But where are the revenues? Podcasting will continue, but as a business, it’s the latest iteration of CB radio.
2. SPACE TOURISM Travel to the final frontier is riskier than buying a vacation home in Aspen. When the first billionaire perishes in the icy void of space, it’ll take years for this nascent industry to bounce back.
3. OUTSOURCING It works for rote or clerical tasks, but creative and management functions are still most effective close to home. If your job hasn’t been outsourced by now, it’s unlikely to happen in the years ahead.
4. DOWNTOWN CONDOS In cities like Chicago, Miami, and San Diego, short-term speculators snapped up many of these “entry-level” homes. With price-to-rent ratios at absurd highs, it’s time to head for the exits.
5. CHINA RULES THE WORLD Don’t forget your recent history: Japan didn’t surpass the U.S. economy in the 1980s, and it’s unlikely that China will in the next half-century.
6. HIGH-DEFINITION DVDS Which will it be: HD-DVD or the incompatible Blu-Ray format? Get ready for a rerun of VHS vs. Betamax -- if, that is, consumers want high-definition DVDs at all.
7. HYDROGEN-POWERED VEHICLES The technical challenges are huge, and they will probably take 10 to 15 years to overcome. Until then, you can safely ignore hydrogen hype.
8. PRIVATE-LABEL MOBILE-PHONE SERVICES Lucrative niches are few and far between, and the best ones (such as teens or sports fans) are already taken. Whatever’s left is likely to be too small or too hard to reach to turn a substantial profit.
9. CELEBRITY CLOTHING BRANDS Sean “Diddy” Combs made celeb-branded clothing fashionable. Beyoncé, Jennifer Lopez, and Gwen Stefani followed. Now comes proof that this fad will fade: Jessica Simpson has launched her own line of plus-size jeans.
I don't agree with the space tourism bit, I think they'll market it as extreme adventure tours, as long as they have a death rate lower than a comparable climb of Mt. Everest, they should be fine.
I see the space tourism -- it's risky, all right -- but I think it will ultimately last, after a few contortions like the one described.
China, also, has enormous potential. Whether they will effectively exploit it remains to be seen, but it's there. Japan is just a rock in the ocean. But China has a large land mass and 1/4th of the people in the entire world. That's not going to go away.
10. Moving offshore. Most of the companies that move jobs to cheaper labor markets, especially when they don't sell products there, are only buying time before they go out of business.
11. Tax incentives to manufacturers. Quite frankly, goods made today last a lot longer than they used to, and take significantly fewer people to make. That's a deadly combination to people who plan to make their living as factory workers, especially unskilled laborers. Without the promise of jobs you won't see the raison d'etre for the incentives.
12. College education. Quite frankly, having a degree doesn't guarantee that you're gonna have a good job anymore. However, people who hope to live in the middle class will definitely need some sort of job skills that will require extensive education. Look for education to adjust to that reality.
"3. OUTSOURCING It works for rote or clerical tasks, but creative and management functions are still most effective close to home. If your job hasn’t been outsourced by now, it’s unlikely to happen in the years ahead."
Most of the list I agree with, but this seems a bit suspect. Any job that can be reduced to a routine is still at risk.
And I think he is underestiomating pod-casting. The same stream can be used for internet radio with tie-ins and revenue potential; its more like blogging than CB-radio.
"Any job that can be reduced to a routine is still at risk."
Yes, it is at risk. However, sending it to China, etc doesn't make as much sense as automating it with robots, computers, etc.
> 6. HIGH-DEFINITION DVDS Which will it be: HD-DVD or
> the incompatible Blu-Ray format? Get ready for a
> rerun of VHS vs. Betamax -- if, that is, consumers
> want high-definition DVDs at all.
They want 'em. if only because they spent extra to get
that HDTV, but whether any HD disc format succeeds may
depend on the DRM (never forget the original DIVX fiasco).
Will the HD player actually allow itself to deliver an
HD image to your existing HD TV? Don't count on it.
As to which HD format will dominate, it may not matter,
just as it doesn't matter whether DVD+R is outselling
DVD-R in the recordable media market. It isn't that hard
to build a player that can read any format.
Outsourcing - it's no longer that tasks are being outsourced - whole projects are being outsourced.
China owns our debt, and we help by buying all their products - not exactly identical to Japan.
Diversity - this is going to die.
This is being nitpicky, but you should say offshoring instead of outsourcing. I know they are often used interchangeably here, but they are two different things.
(Yes, I am in B-school :P).
10. Good one. Transportation costs to reimport or export their products will increase the speed at which it happens.
ping
13. LIBERALISM - surely it's had its day now?
"China owns our debt, and we help by buying all their products - not exactly identical to Japan."
Your memory of the 1980's Japanese buying spree is limited. I think they bought NYC's Rockefeller Center, for instance. They very quickly moved past the Saudis to claim the #2 spot in foriegn investment, and foriegn debt holding, right behind the Brits.
good article (something that never goes out of fashion)
I listened to a talk on H2 fuel cell development two years ago. The vehicles presently cost 10X too much and are 3X to heavy to compete with gasoline.
If minds had anuses, blogging would be what your mind would do when it had to take a dump.
I just don't understand the fascination with blogs. It's nothing more than personal home pages were in 1997. Especially in the corporate environment, such as GM's FastLane blog, which, coincidentally, lists a "PodCast" as its first item.
I agree consumers want HDDVD (whichever format) and people will put up with an encryption layer (but not a per-play charge, as you note correctly), but it actually isn't easy to come up with a player that reads both HD-DVD and Blu-ray HD formats. The laser wavelengths are different, it's not just a matter of deciding what the data coming back means.
> ... but it actually isn't easy to come up with a player
> that reads both HD-DVD and Blu-ray HD formats. The laser
> wavelengths are different, ...
So use a tunable laser or dual laser.
Same is true for BluRay and CD, but I expect every BR
player will play all the legacy red laser CD formats,
just as current DVD players do.
Sure it costs more, but so does waging a VHS-Beta war.
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