Right now basically all the useful models have landfalls from Galveston to the LA/TX border.
Both NOGAPS (Navy) and the UKMET (British) models have the LA/TX border landfall at the moment.
Is the track the eye, meaning anything to the East of the eye gets hit strongest? If so, NOLA May have some problems.
What is the one in Orange on the map I posted?
If it hit halfway between Galveston and Beaumont, that would be the best of a bad situation. If it hits Galveston it definitely shoves the bay west into Houston and does untold damage to the petrochemical plants.
With the new forecast this morning, I'm no longer the bullseye and would only get the western side of the storm, so someone else's misery would be good news for me, in relative terms.
I'm not ready to celebrate yet, but last night it looked like my house would be destroyed. Today it looks survivable.
At a local level, I can't find a gas station with gas. The supermarket was empty this morning except for frozen food. They had a little bottled water left when I was there, but they were rationing it two to a customer, and unless more is on the way, it's long gone by now.
I went to the hardware store to see if I could get a tank of propane. The answer was no, of course, but people were grabbing gasoline jugs like crazy. I wanted to ask them where they expected to fill them, but I bit my tongue.
The town is in gridlock. People are running out of gas on the freeways. Many have been there for over 12 hours and have moved just a few miles. The operation to open both lanes of freeways leaving town is underway, but not operational yet.
That will help enormously, but it also means no more food, gasoline or other supplies will be coming to the residents who have decided to stay.
The decision to go or stay has passed for most people, and if you don't have supplies to last until help comes, whenever that might be, you're in trouble.