[raygun]

I think she's sloughing off that parasitical inner eye. Once that inner eye dies (eye has to be larger than 24NM), and she retains here annular form, she'll be officially recognized as being an annular hurricane. Once she's fully annular, she won't be giving up ANYTHING for at least 12 hours (provided she can hold it for three hours to begin with). She could set a record with respect to longest period of annular form, and make landfall just as she is right now.

What kind of impression she could make when she shows up? Well, you start with low tide, add to that 1' per 1" HG depression from standard pressure. She's at 915mb. That's approximately 2.9' for surge dome (if she deepens that would change). Add on top of that wind wave (NOGAP forecast about 38'), and then add to that slope wave. This is entirely determinant upon sea bottom topography. I have no idea what kind of surf is available off of the coast of Houston. If surfing is good, then add whatever seems like a good number. That's what would come in at low tide when Rita makes landfall. Make adjustment for any other tide as appropriate.

[steveegg]

Ouch. Don't you have any good news?

[Howlin]

and she retains here annular form, she'll be officially recognized as being an annular hurricane

I knew it!

[ArmyBratsMom]

I have no idea what kind of surf is available off of the coast of Houston. If surfing is good, then add whatever seems like a good number.

That number would be zero. Galveston is known for a lot of things, but surfing is not one of them. {:o)

[steveegg]

New Vortex Data Message - eye fix at 5:11 pm CDT - Max flight-level winds 132 knots in the NW quad (replaces the old 133 knots/NW quad that a NOAA plane found just after 2) -

000
URNT12 KNHC 222219
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/22:11:00Z
B. 25 deg 58 min N
  089 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2326 m
D. NA  kt
E. NA  deg     nm
F. 054 deg 124 kt
G. 312 deg 019 nm
H.         913 mb
I.   9 C/ 3065 m
J.  19 C/ 3049 m
K.  15 C/ NA
L. OPEN E
M. CO14/35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 /  1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01       OB 11
MAX FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 21:24:10 Z

Other significant changes from the last run (eye fix at 4:20 pm CDT, 51 minutes prior) -

- Movement 5 minutes north, 8 minutes west
- Eyewall now open on the east (was open on the southeast)
- Concentric eyewalls now 14 and 35 nm wide (was 16 and 41 nm wide)