Hurricane RITA Update (pressure hits 898 MB or lower)

NHC ^

[jmc1969]

DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AT 623 PM CDT...2323Z...INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO BELOW 899 MB...OR 26.55 INCHES. THE DROPSONDE INSTRUMENT MEASURED 32 KT/35 MPH WINDS AT THE SURFACE...WHICH MEANS IT LIKELY DID NOT RECORD THE LOWEST PRESSURE IN THE EYE OF RITA. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS PROBABLY AT LEAST AS LOW AS 898 MB...AND PERHAPS EVEN LOWER. FOR OFFICIAL PURPOSES... A PRESSURE OF 898 MB IS ASSUMED...

WHICH NOW MAKES RITA THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF PRESSURE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. SOME ADDITIONAL DEEPENING AND INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

[Ostlandr]

IMHO heat would only make things worse. I was just sitting in the car on the way home calculating the energy avaliable in the Gulf. If you lower one pound of water by one degree farenheit, that releases one BTU of energy. Figure just how many pounds of water there are in the top foot or so of the water under the hurricane, measure the temperature change, multiply the BTUs per minute by 0.0235809 to get horsepower (or 0.0175843 to get Kilowatts, if you prefer) and that's a staggering release of energy.
A nuke is a pop gun by comparison- it releases a LOT of energy, but in a thousandth of a second. The hurricane is generating this power continuously.
You could have every plane in the air force dropping dry ice and cryogenic liquids, and it wouldn't make enough difference to matter.

[KarlInOhio]

Just to give an idea of how powerful a hurricane is, the MOAB has about 9 tons of explosives. Assuming it is TNT (the explosive I have some numbers for), that would be about 3.8 x 10^10 joules of energy. An average hurricane releases about 5.2 x 10^19 joules per day. So the MOAB has as much energy as 63 microseconds of an average hurricane. Rita is far more powerful than an average hurricane.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D7.html for hurricane energy info.

[3IDVET]

Seriously Though, THANK GOD IT HAS ALMOST PAST NO...GOD BLESS GALVESTON AND THE TX GULF COAST

[Swiss]

I always wondered if we had all our oil platforms in the gulf create a big oil slick on the ocean if that would weaken an hurricane?

[Thud]

Yup, both Rita and Katrina were huge in area as well as being powerful. The total energy each carried was far greater than the average bad hurricane.

[Heavyrunner]

It does beg the question, however...

The eye of a hurricane is essentially where all of the condensed cool air rushes back to sea level after it has risen to extreme altitude as warm, wet air. The center of the hurricane is essential to maintaining the perpetual motion machine that the storm has become.

A sufficiently large bomb airburst in the eye of a hurricane, it would seem, could disrupt this system by causing the cool central eye to become a superheated column of rising air.

I'm sure it's more complex than that or a Cat 5 headed toward a major population center would almost certainly justify a violation of the nuclear test ban treaty. ;)

[spetznaz]

thermobarics are amazingly powerful , work on pressure principles and are not radioactive . hurricanes are all about pressure , we should at least experiment .

There are two ways to measure the energy released in a hurricane. The first looks at the total amount of energy released by the condensation of water droplets, while the second delves into the amount of kinetic energy generated to maintain the strong swirling winds of the hurricane.

Using the first method, the energy therein is equivalent to 200 times the world-wide electrical generating capacity.

And using the second it is equivalent to half the world-wide electrical generating capacity.

In essence thermobaric bombs would not even register within the hurricane. As for nuclear weaponry the result would merely be a hurricane that has radioactive suspension in it. These things are beasts! Literally. The energy within them is mind boggling.

[arthurus]

"They" will blame Bush. If this storm accomplishes in destruction what Katrina did then the economy will tank big time and we will probably abandon the war/lose the war which will bring more huge expenses down the road as we are faced with rebuilding Chicago or Nashville or wherever the Moslems strike.
How now can Bush and the rest of the New Deal Republicans in Congress not dump at least as much money into Rita's aftermath as was done after Katrina? How now can they not avoid the extreme temptation to raise tax rates to economy destroying levels?<
P> There will be no "belt-tightening" as the Republicans have to increase all other spending to show that they are not being distracted by the storms.

[arthurus]

"They" will blame Bush. If this storm accomplishes in destruction what Katrina did then the economy will tank big time and we will probably abandon the war/lose the war which will bring more huge expenses down the road as we are faced with rebuilding Chicago or Nashville or wherever the Moslems strike.
How now can Bush and the rest of the New Deal Republicans in Congress not dump at least as much money into Rita's aftermath as was done after Katrina? How now can they not avoid the extreme temptation to raise tax rates to economy destroying levels?<
P> There will be no "belt-tightening" as the Republicans have to increase all other spending to show that they are not being distracted by the storms.

[Izzy Dunne]

A sufficiently large bomb airburst in the eye of a hurricane, it would seem, could disrupt this system by causing the cool central eye to become a superheated column of rising air.

Sure - that'll work.

The key is in the words "sufficiently large".

Why not Nuke 'em?

[Tennessee_Bob]

Thermobarics put out heat, right?

[Tennessee_Bob]

So, nuking a hurricane would be just as effective as that guy in Mississippi mooning the hurricane - it just wouldn't have the comic relief...

[AFreeBird]

Maybe Teddy could drink it under the table

[GW and Twins Pawpaw]

Reports on TV indicate that Rita has become the third most powerful storm on record. John Sealy hospital in Galveston was evacuated (first time in its history). I have heard from people in Houston that there are about three million people attempting to leave the area. Hotels in Dallas, 250 miles to the north, and San Antonio, 200 miles to the west are approaching their capacity. I am in Lubbock and the story here is that all the Katrina evacuees are gone and we're expecting 500-1,000 folks fleeing Rita. I have to go to Houston next week and it will be interesting to see what level of damage the city suffered....

[3IDVET]

I think you're right, and hurricane season isn't over yet. I think we will eventually have no choice but to abandon Iraq, and a big part of the war on terror. But like you said, when they are rebuilding whole cities because of terror...And I don't think it will be one at a time, either, if al-quaeda has it's way and follows it's doctrine it could 2, 3, 4 cities leveled or FUBAR....

[injin]

You don't have to attack the entire hurricane. That is the point. You don't have to put power against power, you just have to disorganize the eyewall. If you have a 25 mile eyewall the circumference is 78.5 miles. If a BLU-82 puts out a 6 mile shock wave, 7 of them detonating simultaneously near the eyewall would have overlapping effects. all you need to overcome is a pressure gradient of about 1.5 psi. Anybody who tells you that you cannot disrupt the eyewall with a pattern of 15,000 pounder thermobaric explosions is an idiot. There is a good way to settle the dispute---try it. Cost of a BLU-82 is $27,000. Cost of not trying it is what? Maybe $100 billion dollars per city and a thousand lives at a time. These guys are going to look pretty bad if somebody decides to try this sometime in the future and find out it works. By then we will have lost New Orleans, Houston, Miami, etc.

Does anyone dispute that when the eyewall disintegrates the hurricane falls apart?

Somebody should suggest to the nay sayers that you don't have to blow a hurricane apart to have a beneficial effect on it. Suppose you hit it ten miles off shore, and it takes the winds down to 90 mph instead of 150 mph. Before there can be a reorganization it will be over land. Big difference. Isn't it worth trying. This whole thing kind of reminds me of the Space Shuttle. Don't bother to try and fix the problem. Let everybody die first, then we'll talk about what went wrong later.

'this from a gentleman who won the USAF Geller top science officer award for two yrs running '

[Halgr]

Splendid Idea....now to talk the President into trying it....

Cause thats the only way it will happen

[DallasMike]

 

 

[injin]

well , I am hoping he might be reading this ;^)

[Rippin]

Does anyone dispute that when the eyewall disintegrates the hurricane falls apart?

---

Yep, it will reorganize quickly if it takes just a sudden shock. But at least you are thinking about it. Someone needs to invent the hurricane dissolver.