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Update: Category 5 Hurricane Rita - Live Thread, Part II
NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

Posted on 09/21/2005 1:36:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Category 3 Hurricane Rita became the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season during the night. Hurricane Rita threaded the needle through the Florida Straits and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Storm damage in the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula was light, with scattered power outages, scattered tornados, and mild to moderate flooding.

Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Galveston County TX and New Orleans. Additional evacuation orders in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area are anticipated throughout the day.

Crude oil prices reacted as oil producers shut down and evacuated workers from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico

Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18


TOPICS: News/Current Events; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: hurricane; katrina; katrinassister; rita; tropical; twinhurricanes
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Per usual, do not post graphics >50KB, no radar loops, no webcams. Post links to this busy thread.

Please cite sources for information.

1 posted on 09/21/2005 1:36:25 AM PDT by NautiNurse
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To: aberaussie; Alas Babylon!; Alia; alnick; Amelia; asp1; AntiGuv; Bahbah; balrog666; blam; Blennos; ..

Category 3 Hurricane Rita

Winds 120 mph, pressure 956mb, moving west near 14 mph.

2 posted on 09/21/2005 1:39:52 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: All
Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 15

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 21, 2005

...Major category three Rita moving into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico and continuing to strengthen...

 
at 5 am EDT...0900z...the Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the
Florida Keys is discontinued east of the Marquesas Keys...including
Key West.  A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the
Florida Keys from the Marquesas Keys westward to the Dry Tortugas.

 
Interests in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Rita.

 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

 
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 24.3 north...longitude  84.6 west or about  175 miles...
285 km...west of Key West Florida and about  160 miles... 255 km...
west-northwest of Havana Cuba.

 
Rita is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr...and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.  This
motion should bring the center of Rita farther away from the
Florida Keys over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today.

 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph...195
km/hr...with higher gusts.  Rita is a category three hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale.  Strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours...and Rita is expected to become a category four
hurricane sometime later today.

 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to  45 miles... 75 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 140 miles...220 km.

 
Estimated minimum central pressure is  956 mb...28.23 inches.

 
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 ft above normal tide levels
is possible in the Tropical Storm Warning area.  Storm surge
flooding elsewhere in the Florida Keys and South Florida should
subside today.

Rita is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1
to 3 inches over extreme southern Florida and the Florida Keys. 
Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches...with maximum amounts of 10
inches over the higher elevations...are possible over northwest
Cuba.  Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over the
northern Yucatan Peninsula.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...24.3 N... 84.6 W.  Movement
toward...west near 14 mph.  Maximum sustained
winds...120 mph.  Minimum central pressure... 956 mb.

 
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

 
Forecaster Beven

3 posted on 09/21/2005 1:40:44 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: NautiNurse

First?


4 posted on 09/21/2005 1:42:38 AM PDT by Flyer (Houston FReepers ~ http://houstonliberty.com/forums/ ~ (SW Houston)
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To: All

5 posted on 09/21/2005 1:43:16 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: Flyer

yep - how are you this morning?


6 posted on 09/21/2005 1:43:46 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: NautiNurse

Dear Lord......................


7 posted on 09/21/2005 1:45:07 AM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane season)
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To: NautiNurse

Yikes, 120mph already.


8 posted on 09/21/2005 1:46:13 AM PDT by Crazieman (6-23-2005, Establishment of the United Socialist States of America)
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To: NautiNurse

I'm going to go catch a nap - see you in a couple of hours (school bus arrives in 2.5 hours)


9 posted on 09/21/2005 1:46:35 AM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane season)
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To: Flyer
Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 15

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 21, 2005

 
the reconnaissance mission scheduled for this morning was scrubbed
due to electronics problems on multiple aircraft.  However...before
the eye went out of range of the velocity data from the Key West
WSR-88D...winds of 100-115 kt were seen at between 9000-13000 ft. 
Additionally...satellite intensity estimates are 115 kt from all
agencies.  Based on this and extrapolation of trends from the last
aircraft mission...the initial intensity is increased to 105
kt...and this may be conservative give the satellite appearance.

The initial motion is 275-280 degrees at 12 kt.  Rita should
continue to move generally westward for the next 36 hr or so on the
south side of the strong deep-layer ridge over the northern Gulf
Coast.  Beyond that time...the large-scale models forecast the
ridge to weaken and shift eastward...allowing a more northward
motion.  The models have come into somewhat better agreement on
this run...as the GFS has shifted westward from its previous
forecast...while the NOGAPS and GFDN have shifted northward from
their south Texas landfall.  The forecast track is close to the
consensus models and the FSU superensemble...being nudged slightly
north of the previous track during the first 48-72 hr and slightly
westward thereafter with a landfall on the middle Texas coast in
just over 72 hr.  However...these changes are in the noise level.

 
The satellite signature of Rita gives every impression that rapid
intensification is continuing...and while the equatorward outflow
channel mentioned earlier is not as apparent now the poleward
outflow channel is still going strong.  Thus intensification could
continue until a concentric eyewall cycle occurs or until the eye
moves west of The Loop current in about 24 hr.  The GFDL model
peaks Rita at about 120 kt in 12-18 hr...the SHIPS model peaks it
at 122 kt in 48 hr...and the superensemble peaks it at 131 kt in 48
hr.  The intensity forecast will bring the system to 125 kt in 24
hr as a blend of these forecasts.  However...it would not be a
surprise if Rita became a category five hurricane in the next 24 hr
before weakening somewhat due to a concentric eyewall cycle or the
lower ocean heat content west of The Loop current.  Rita should
maintain major hurricane status until landfall...then weaken after
landfall.

 
Forecaster Beven

 

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      21/0900z 24.3n  84.6w   105 kt
 12hr VT     21/1800z 24.4n  86.5w   115 kt
 24hr VT     22/0600z 24.7n  88.7w   125 kt
 36hr VT     22/1800z 25.2n  90.8w   125 kt
 48hr VT     23/0600z 25.9n  92.8w   125 kt
 72hr VT     24/0600z 28.0n  95.5w   120 kt
 96hr VT     25/0600z 31.5n  97.0w    50 kt...inland
120hr VT     26/0600z 35.5n  96.5w    25 kt...inland dissipating

10 posted on 09/21/2005 1:46:50 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: Gabz

Thanks for hanging in all night.


11 posted on 09/21/2005 1:47:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: NautiNurse; Gabz; Howlin; Dog Gone; WhyisaTexasgirlinPA

Dang, my internet connection has been crappy, crappy slow since yesterday afternoon.

I have a long day at work today. I think I have the boss convinced to call it off for Friday - now I think I need to talk him into calling it off for Thursday, too.

I may go hit a 24 hour grocery store in a little bit before I head off to work. I may not be back on the thread until this evening.


12 posted on 09/21/2005 1:48:52 AM PDT by Flyer (Houston FReepers ~ http://houstonliberty.com/forums/ ~ (SW Houston)
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To: NautiNurse

No problem, FRiend - will be back later this morning - but will have no choice but to bug out between 5-10pm tonight.


13 posted on 09/21/2005 1:49:40 AM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane season)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for the new thread.


14 posted on 09/21/2005 1:49:45 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: Flyer

Good idea for the pre-dawn shopping.


15 posted on 09/21/2005 1:49:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: NautiNurse

OH - BTW - decided to leave all the dishes and pans for hubby to do :)


16 posted on 09/21/2005 1:50:23 AM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane season)
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To: NautiNurse
The interesting thing is that it grew so fast over _relatively_ cooler waters, and now is heading into warmer waters. See the graphic on this page:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/gulfmex.c.gif (~ 68K)

17 posted on 09/21/2005 1:50:38 AM PDT by Heatseeker ("I sort of like liberals now. They’re kind of cute when they’re shivering and afraid." - Ann Coulter)
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To: NautiNurse

How does Beven get the 5:00 A.M. Statement out before 5:00 A.M.?


18 posted on 09/21/2005 1:50:47 AM PDT by leadpenny
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To: Howlin

It took a bit of time to transfer everything from FL/Atlantic to TX/GOM info.


19 posted on 09/21/2005 1:51:08 AM PDT by NautiNurse (The task before us is enormous, but so is the heart of America.)
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To: Flyer

Stay safe.


20 posted on 09/21/2005 1:51:12 AM PDT by Gabz ((Chincoteague, VA) Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane season)
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