Update: Category 5 Hurricane Rita - Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Category 3 Hurricane Rita became the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season during the night. Hurricane Rita threaded the needle through the Florida Straits and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Storm damage in the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula was light, with scattered power outages, scattered tornados, and mild to moderate flooding.

Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Galveston County TX and New Orleans. Additional evacuation orders in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area are anticipated throughout the day.

Crude oil prices reacted as oil producers shut down and evacuated workers from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[jacquej]

I am very understanding of your impulse to get to a safer place. It is unfortunate that your husband isn't understanding that you are a new mother of a 3 month old, and you do not need the anxiety at this point in motherhood, but some men just don't "get it".

My advice to you would be to explain to him that your anxiety level just isn't good for the new baby, and while he is "probably right" (that you are being "silly"), that you think it best for the baby that you do all you can to feel calm. Tell him that it is just new mother hormones, or something.

Then pack up your baby and leave, with a big hug and kiss to him for being "understanding" of your emotions, never having beeen through something like this, etc...

Look at it this way... it is more important for your baby for you to feel comfortable for the next few days, then for you to be sitting there and worrying your head off. If nothing happens to your present location, your bugging out doesn't matter. If soemthing does happen, and you didn't bug out, it would be a big marital "issue" for the future...

It is always good to try to avoid those "I told you so" discussions when you are the one making them. It is much better to let hubbie be the one saying it to you... (womanly wiles at work)

[tcrlaf]

What's the name of the ship???

[ken5050]

Thanks.. I wonder if some camera crew will ride it out with them...

[Vintage1]

I've got family in San Antonio - any educated guesses on the impact in that area? Any information/opinions on this are appreciated. Thanks.

[AliVeritas]

You know what's funny, DU doesn't like him... they call him Tweety. I bet they liked him when he was accusing FEMA though.

[Sprite518]

I am not really sure... Nevertheless, I laugh at anyone that calls Fox News right wing.. I guess if you report both sides of an issue then that is right wing??? LOL!

[blondee123]

Anyone have an internet site for Houston police, live audio? Been trying to find one.

[Howlin]

LOL....hey, we can hope, can't we?

I think I am going local TV this time, so I don't have to hear those pontificating jerks again.

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 17
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 21, 2005

 
and yet another category five hurricane this season. Data from both
NOAA and Air Force hurricane hunters indicate a significant
pressure drop today and winds have increased to 145 knots. This is
based on a 700 mb wind of 161 knots recently measured by an Air
Force plane and a recalibrated SFMR surface wind of 146 knots. 
Satellite intensity estimates were unanimously 140 knots from all
agencies.  Because Rita will be crossing an area of high heat
content during the next 12 to 24 hours...it is expected that the
hurricane will maintain its strength. Thereafter...the ocean heat
content is not as high and the intensity changes will be controlled
mainly by eyewall replacement cycles and decreasing heat content.
Some weakening is anticipated but Rita is forecast to make landfall
as a major hurricane...at least category three.    

There has been no change in the steering pattern and Rita is moving
westward or 275 degrees at 11 knots. The high pressure system that
has been forcing Rita westward is forecast to weaken and shift
eastward. This will allow the hurricane to turn gradually toward
the west-northwest and northwest during the next day or two. The
core of Rita is basically moving toward the Texas coast and this is
consistent with the track model consensus.

The wind field associated with the hurricane has begun to expand 
and tropical storm force winds already extend about 150 N mi in the
northern semicircle.  Because additional expansion of the wind
field is anticipated...a Hurricane Watch and a tropical storm watch
have been issued for the northwest Gulf Coast.   

 
Forecaster Avila

 
forecast positions and Max winds

 
initial      21/2100z 24.4n  86.8w   145 kt
 12hr VT     22/0600z 24.5n  88.5w   145 kt
 24hr VT     22/1800z 25.2n  90.6w   145 kt
 36hr VT     23/0600z 26.0n  92.7w   135 kt
 48hr VT     23/1800z 27.0n  94.5w   125 kt
 72hr VT     24/1800z 30.5n  97.0w    65 kt...inland
 96hr VT     25/1800z 33.0n  97.0w    30 kt...inland
120hr VT     26/1800z 36.0n  96.0w    25 kt...inland

[Howlin]

I think it has.......I can't remember any other storm intensifying this fast!

[burzum]

Nope. The advisory is out. Pressure at 914 mb. The other pressures mentioned by various posters were either mistaken or bogus.

Not necessarily. It takes time to review and decide what to write in an advisory. It is a bureaucratic process that can't react to information without a delay time. Also, if conflicting information comes in they would probably write the report conservatively.

[Howlin]

Pity, ain't it? :-)

[Sprite518]

Are you even aware that China has been threatening Taiwan?

How are we stretched? You have got to be kidding me??

[AliVeritas]

Tell me there's not such a thing as a cat 6... right?

[james_f_hall]

70miles!! That's up from 45miles. Becoming a wider area of destruction now.

[JFC]

Like we always claim here in in Texas....


Everything is bigger in Texas.

[Types_with_Fist]

Tell me there's not such a thing as a cat 6

There isn't but it seems there should be.

[sinkspur]

Are cruise ship locations here? My friend's daughter is on a cruise outa Galveston..Honeymoon:) They left Saturaday and are due back this Saturday...I gues ships will just stay out at sea?

More like stuck near the Yucatan. Rita almost fills the Gulf of Mexico as it is and the ship will have to hang out for several days near Honduras. That's not a bad place to be marooned, actually. Roatan's got nice diving.

[Howlin]

Why is the traffic outgoing in only one lane?

[Robert A Cook PE]

Minor effects in San Antonio - though not negligible.

The current path shows it moving northwards as it hits the coast 200-250 miles east of SA. So SA would get back-side rains, winds from the north (maybe 50-75 if eye = 125, probably less: expect 45-60 mph.)

There will be wind and tornado and rain damage, but not major problems. Much more than any front of squall line though!