Update: Category 5 Hurricane Rita - Live Thread, Part II

NHC - NOAA ^ | 21 September 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[NautiNurse]

Category 3 Hurricane Rita became the fifth major hurricane of the 2005 season during the night. Hurricane Rita threaded the needle through the Florida Straits and moved into the Gulf of Mexico. Storm damage in the Florida Keys and South Florida Peninsula was light, with scattered power outages, scattered tornados, and mild to moderate flooding.

Mandatory evacuations are in effect for Galveston County TX and New Orleans. Additional evacuation orders in the Greater Houston Metropolitan Area are anticipated throughout the day.

Crude oil prices reacted as oil producers shut down and evacuated workers from platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

The following links are self-updating:

Public Advisory Currently published every 3 hours 5A, 8A, 11A, 2P, etc. ET
NHC Discussion Published every six hours 6A, 11A, 6P, 11P
Three Day Forecast Track
Five Day Forecast Track

Rita Forecast Track Archive
Forecast Models
Buoy Data Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Buoy Data Western Gulf of Mexico
Current Weather Warnings and Watches for Texas

Images:

Storm Floater IR Loop
GOM WV Loop
GOM IR Still Image
Visible Storm Floater Still (only visible during daylight hours)
Color Enhanced Atlantic Loop
Key West Long Range Radar Still Image

Streaming Video: (coverage may be intermittent)

KHOU-TV/DT Houston: mms://beloint.wm.llnwd.net/beloint_khou
WWLTV NOLA

Additional Resources:

Coastal TX Evacuation Maps
KHOU Houston
KTRK ABC News Houston
Hurricane City
Wxnation Houston

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

Previous Threads:
Hurricane Rita Live Thread, Part I
Tropical Storm Rita
Tropical Depression 18

[numberonepal]

I put together a small analysis here

[ARealMothersSonForever]

We joke about King Ranch because it is desolate. And they have their own county government. We also say when someone really screws up "that was about as brilliant as poaching on the King Ranch". Poachers get shot on sight there.

[carl in alaska]

Texas cost = Texas coast

[james_f_hall]

It did once. It has to be a small compact hurricane though. What this one should do is fizzle and die! I don't think it will, but we can pray for that.

[Strategerist]

Accuweather is taking the position that it's already a CAT 5

Because their fanbase wants it to be a Cat 5. Another example of pointless idiocy from Accuweather.

It may well be a Cat 5 in a couple of hours, but it isn't one now, based on recon. The SOLE criteria for categories is maximum sustained surface wind speed.

[steveegg]

I just heard Shep say the storm is at 140 mph. MSNBC SAYS 150 MPH.

Shep's still quoting the 10 am CDT advisory, while MSNBC is using the 1:15 pm CDT update. The next full advisory is due out about 4 pm CDT, and if it doesn't have Rita at a Cat 5, I'll be surprised.

[Knitting A Conundrum]

I'll remember that....good to know.

[johnb838]

People who haven't been asked to evacuate are leaving and adding to the congestion

I don't blame them. There are no shelters in Houston. Houston is not deemed a safe place to shelter. But those of us not in the flood plain have not been told to evac as we are to evac in waves, with the coastal people first. Bottom line, we aren't getting out and we have nowhere to go.

George Bush doesn't care about Houston.

[My back yard]

Update on Hurricane Rita & ACL Just like you, we are keeping a very close watch on the weather and are being advised by meteorologists. We do expect some rain on Saturday, so be sure to bring an umbrella and wear your rain gear. If weather conditions appear to present any kind of danger to fans, musicians or crew, we are prepared to make the necessary adjustments to maintain safety. Until then, the Festival is on, rain or shine. Look here for updates.

This is what I see up on the official site for the Austin City Limits.

[steveegg]

The models had converged on that track about 16 hours before that point, IIRC.

[abb]

Plus, Accuweather don't get to do the telling. NHC does, lol.

[bwteim]

Knew you'd get it;)
It appears to a standard approach by some: denial, dispute, dissemble.
AKA CYA

[WoodstockCat]

other issue to consider and I agree with the comparison to Jackson (Gulfport, MS to Jackson, MS 162 miles, Corpus Christi, TX to Austin, TX, 220 miles) is the terrain.
It's pine trees and basically flat from Gulfport to Jackson. The more "stuff" the storm has to go over and through will dissapate some of the strength of the storm as it moves ashore (that with losing it's power supply).

[Knitting A Conundrum]

Neat page that discusses the various models:

http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm

[padfoot_lover]

Jaded,
Please stay safe wherever you go....

Am staying but will leave to stay with family in SA if we're out of electricity for more than a few days.

(Chapel closed down after communion service and tabernacle emptied out....)
Take care and see you soon!
Padfoot_Lover

[Howlin]

Shep just joined the 150 mph party.

920 mb

[Zacs Mom]

"Accuweather is taking the position that it's already a CAT 5"

I'm guessing they are basing this upgrade on this info:

Decoded Recon Reports
Wednesday, September 21, 2005 1:22 PM ED

During reconnaissance of tropical system RITA a maximum sustained wind speed of 75 mph at 9997 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 78 mph at 9997 feet, were found by the government plane.

[RDTF]

Well you may be right about their motives, but they aren't too far off. IMO they have been accurate with Rita and with Katrina when others were being too conservative.

[Knitting A Conundrum]

And this is what the nhc people say about the models:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml

[PigRigger]

Nice pic, but NN has requested graphics be less than 50 KB.

Yikes, my mistake....will not happen again....