Posted on 09/20/2005 5:56:17 PM PDT by Flavius
Tehran six months off nuclear arms ability: Israel Abraham Rabinovich September 21, 2005
IRAN may be only six months away from acquiring the capability to produce nuclear weapons, Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom has claimed.
The assessment, which he said was based on Israeli intelligence, differs from US intelligence assessments that Iran could not begin producing nuclear weapons for another decade.
"Our experts say they are very close to this (production) stage," Mr Shalom said. "They may need only another six months."
He did not say how long it would take Iran to produce weapons. The warning came as British diplomats said most members of the 35-nation International Atomic Energy Agency were in favour of referring Iran to the UN Security Council because of its nuclear program.
As member states of the nuclear watchdog met in Vienna to decide how to respond to Tehran's defiant stand, British, French and German officials lobbied for possible international sanctions against Iran.
A British diplomat said: "We have a critical mass of support."
He said the approach set out by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in his speech to the UN General Assembly on Saturday had hardened attitudes towards Tehran.
About 20 countries are now thought to favour referral to the Security Council, including all EU states, the US, Australia, Singapore and Peru.
Twelve of the Non-Aligned Movement states are opposed but may be persuaded to abstain. The strongest opponent, Russia, says matters concerning Iran's nuclear program should be dealt with only by the IAEA.
The Bush administration, which has long campaigned to have Iran referred to the UN, said yesterday that the move was "long overdue".
Israel has been watching with caution the negotiations over North Korea's nuclear program.
The head of the Knesset, or parliamentary, foreign affairs and defence committee, Yuval Steinitz, said North Korea had provided long-range missiles to Iran, Iraq, Syria, Egypt and Libya.
North Korea had supplied Iran, as well as Egypt, with technology for the No Dong 1200km range surface-to-surface missile, capable of delivering nuclear warheads.
Israel has always maintained a policy of ambiguity regarding its own nuclear capacity, neither confirming nor denying it. There is no pressure regarding the issue from the US or Europe and none is expected.
If such pressure should arise in the future, Israel is likely to declare it is the only country in the world whose existence is openly threatened by some of its neighbours, notably Iran, where some senior officials have openly spoken of their desire to see Israel destroyed.
Israeli observers believe the European nations are reluctant to put pressure on Iran over its nuclear development for fear Tehran would substantially raise the price of its oil.
Few options, eh ?
"The assessment, which he said was based on Israeli intelligence, differs from US intelligence assessments that Iran could not begin producing nuclear weapons for another decade."
If this truly is the US intelligence estimate, I'd say it is politically driven bunk.
Over 60 years ago, the US made nuclear weaponry from scratch, the first time, in under five years. So why would it take Iran ten years now? Why would we estimate such a ludicrous timeframe?
Could not any nation buy off-the-shelf components in a short timeframe?
Hey, whether you're talking Iraqi WMDs or the size of the Soviet economy over its entire history, it's not like our intelligence services are anything to bet the farm on.
"the US made nuclear weaponry from scratch, the first time, in under five years. So why would it take Iran ten years now?"
Cause we're twice as smart?
"Over 60 years ago, the US made nuclear weaponry from scratch, the first time, in under five years. So why would it take Iran ten years now? Why would we estimate such a ludicrous timeframe?"
Excellent point.
"Hey, whether you're talking Iraqi WMDs or the size of the Soviet economy over its entire history, it's not like our intelligence services are anything to bet the farm on."
Sad and true.
I think the Brits, Israelis have always been much better than us.
Several nations have had nukes.
Apparently the fear is that Iran would bomb Israel.
I feel Iran needs clarity on the issue of consequences. It would be the last act, by Iran as it is known today.
The issue needs to clearly be: Is Iran ready for a nuclear battle, against Israel plus the US?
If not, don't start one.
Regardless of how long it takes them to accquire a nuclear device, the bottom line is unless Russian and China side with the EU and US in the UN and on other planes, Iran shall get the weapons. They now have the technical ability to manufacture such a device, make no mistake. Those days way back when in Oakridge Tennessee are a false analogy to use. To different worlds. The Russians have a lot invested in building up Iran's nuclear program. Just like they and the French did with Saddam in the 70s. The Russians just are not going to stop selling them stuff and setting up their hot labs, centerfuges etc., because the US and EU don't want them to manufacture nuclear weapons. And there is nothing saying the Iranians cannot get into more deals with the Chicoms in the way of selling them low cost oil, in exchange for goods they normally require from the outside world. The Chicoms get plenty of low cost oil, they laugh at the US and EU as Iran drops out of OPEC. The Russians giggle as they continue to build their oil markets infiltrating the US etc., such as with Lukoil, they keep selling hardware, technologies, and reasonable cost nuclear fuel rods to Iran to power their reactors, and the US is out on a limb. Anything we have transfered to the Chicoms can easily be given to the Iranians for the cost of $30/barrel crude oil.
Let us not forget those little facts about Saddam blackmailing the French with oil verse technology transfers.
As Iran just stated they have no problems with raising the price to $100/barrel of crude oil for the infidels. Of course that is a two edge sword and probably more for postureing. Then again it would place a lot more demand on the OPEC nations and say Canada to try to make up the difference. Of course the Russians could step in and save the day by announcing they will make up the difference, assuming they could quickly increase their drilling and distribution capacities.
Such a scenario could end up taking place. As the Chicoms continue to become a world power in the market place manufacturing their own goods, redistributing what they buy from EU and US for instance to say Iran and other third world power that lets them in, the US falls further in it's ability to attempt to control third world nation's course regarding manufacturing WMD's of all sorts. For those that don't think the Chicoms and Russians don't have bargaining chips I think they may be in for a big surprise as things develop. Not a rosey picture, that is for sure, but the world is not made of rose buds.
Sadly, John Kerry, Jimmy Carter Hillery and most of the world would believe them
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