Although he ended life on a down-tick (self-inflicted bullet to the head) Jesse Livermore was generally considered one of the sharper market watchers around. His analysis of the 1907 stock market crash ("Panic of '07") focused on the catastrophic effects on all markets of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. His thesis focused on the idea that it was months before the true extent of the damage filtered through the markets and by the time it did the downward spiral could not be halted -- even by Treasury Department intervention in the bond market.
October 24, 1907 -- no buyers, none. By mid-November the Dow had lost 48% from its previous year's high.
The only good news from Hurricane Katrina is that the event acts as the very rare perfect intelligence indicator. If the opposition has the capacity to initiate a spectacular strategic/economic attack then they are forced to launch under Islamic strike doctrine. The exponential force multiplier garnered with Western emergency responses "stretched" to the limit opens the opportunity for a crushing "break" assault.
Under such a scenario oil would zoom to a hundred and the Dow would fall sharply. All this with the Iranian Oil Bourse slated to open in March and begin trading crude in Euros. Under no circumstances can this be permitted.
Then again, if no strike comes during the window of vulnerability it will be a near-certainty that Western intelligence structures have over-quantified the Qaeda threat. A strategic review will then be mandatory -- and many security operations may have to stand down or be eliminated.
Nothing like having a perfect intelligence barometer with a high-pressure system tracking west...
Thus with oil ready to charge north once more, the stock market entering its most vulnerable month and Ramadan right around the corner -- the stage is set for more intense pressure on the dollar. Then again, its not like many billions more can't be created with a few keystrokes...
J
bttt for later read.
Yes, it could be the threat of a hugh terrorist strike. If there is a terrorist strike of the nuclear type, that won't end the threat because there could be another. I suppose somebody is riding the crest of this wave--somebody always is right there. Whoever it is, is probably far nastier than any James Bond villain.
"Then again, its not like many billions more can't be created with a few keystrokes..."
Exactly. An nuclear attack on America is now considered a "when" not an "if". When it occurs, our country has demonstrated we are woefully unprepared. Markets will mean nothing when the economy collapses, the shipping industry stops shipping food and people get hungry.
No surplus production capacity in crude=no cushion to stabilize prices=extreme volatility in energy prices=inability to make good investment decisions=stock market crash.
And that's without any action at all on the part of Islamic terrorists.
It's easy to forget that N.O. is a critical port for both imports and exports; clearly, it isn't ready for full-scale operations yet. What happens as the grain harvests come in and need to be exported?
We may not have a dow crash, but per Mauldin's Bull's Eye Investing, we're badly overpriced.
As for oil...peak oil is here. We're going up from here. A lot.
I'm still waiting for anyone to take me up on a bet I proposed last month -- when I suggested that oil would be back down at $40 before it ever reached $100.