Posted on 09/19/2005 4:18:09 AM PDT by ex-Texan
Gerhard Schröder was publicly jubilant despite his party's defeat at the polls in the German election last night. Roger Boyes, correspondent for The Times in Berlin, explains the wily political operator's plot to turn defeat into victory.
"By claiming victory today, Gerhard Schröder is bluffing - he's basically trying to disorientate Frau Merkel. His ambition is to reach a position where there is a grand coalition with himself as Chancellor despite his party's second place, and he is playing a typically complex tactical game to get there.
"When a party obtains a majority in an election in Germany, as the CDU has done, it has two immediate briefs: it must appoint a Chancellor and it must form a stable government.
"Herr Schröder believes that Frau Merkel is not able to form a stable government unless it is in a grand coalition with his SPD. He is saying that once she has been turned down by the Greens and the Liberals she will come to him, and he will not play ball.
"He believes that Frau Merkel will eventually be forced to ask him to join her, at which point he will say 'no'. Frau Merkel will then have to tell the President that she has failed to form a government, and the President will turn to Herr Schröder and ask him to try.
"Herr Schröder believes that he can argue that he is the people's choice, whatever the arithmetic may say.
"It is very much in his interests to have protracted negotiations as he remains Chancellor with all of the trappings and status that entails, while day-by-day Frau Merkel's standing will diminish.
"Ultimately, she will be forced to accept to a grand coalition with Herr Schröder as Chancellor or she will be forced to go.
"He's playing a tactical game and he thinks he will still emerge as the ruler of Germany."
Very interesting! This would explain a lot of things that have been puzzling me since last evening.
Visions of Clinton/Gore.
He may get away with this, but in the end the German people will hate him.
Herr Schroeder didn't get 50% of the vote.
In fact, Gore won the popular vote in 2000, and the American public detests him for his lack of grace.
If Merkel won't be able to form a majority without SPD what makes anyone think Schroeder will be able to form a majority without the CDU. The Far Left party has already told Schroeder they will not form a coalition with him (SPD), and without them or CDU he is out in the cold.
A low euro is good for German exports, which is one bright spot. However, overall the German business world is disappointed.
Funnily enough, a Grand Coalition under Schröder with the CDU as junior partners might be quite popular. In all polls, Schröder was consistently the preferred Chancellor compared to Merkel by a very wide margin, however the red-green policies were perceived as a failure. If Schröder now implements changes (say, with a CDU finance minister and/or economics minister), the necessary reforms could go through after all!
Well, Merkel didn't get 50% either.
There's no denying it: here in Germany everybody sees this as a major defeat for Merkel and a victory for Schröder, who came back from nowhere. A paradox.
The next few days will be very interesting.
I will defend Gore a little, as much as I despise him...
Immeadiately after the final counts were in, Gore was fairly "gracious" and was willing to admit defeat..
It was pressure by the Democratic party that encouraged him to fight the election results, and start acting like an A$$..
Later, Gore retired quietly to his teaching post, and seemed to be resigned to the outcome..
Again, ( I believe ) he was encouraged to come out in support of the Democrat myth that the election was "stolen" and he did so for the party, not so much for himself..
I think Gore is too much of a realist to think he ever stands a chance in politics again, at least presidential politics..
He may eventually gain a senatorial seat again, but he will never run for president again..
And if left to his own devices, ( I believe ) there would not have been the gigantic show of "bad loser-ship" after 2000..
Face it, when you really look at Gore, he's a bit of a "dork"....
He was more of a "useful idiot" for the party than anything else...
Ah, but the SPD canform a coalition with the CDU as the JUNIOR partner. Perhaps the CDU grandees will now dump Merkel and do a deal?
Once again the liberal party loses but claims that the winner doesn't have a "mandate." Of course the press plays along. You can bet that had the election put Schroder ahead by the slimmest of margins, the press would have declared him "the clear winner." Talk about Bush/Gore all over again! Liberals are the same across the world . . .
"Later, Gore retired quietly to his teaching post, and seemed to be resigned to the outcome.."
Yeah. But not 2 hours later. Even Kerry and little sissy Edwards had the sense to stop whining (as though they planned to contest) the day after the election.
"He may eventually gain a senatorial seat again, but he will never run for president again.."
I think not.
He lost his own state in the 2000 presidential election.
I disagree with your take. The margin between the two big parties is around 1% or maybe even less. Hardly a clear mandate for Merkel. And don't you believe that the German media give Schröder an easy ride.
They're not liberals, but social democrats. The liberals (FDP) won big time, but will be in opposition. The Greens and the Left party will be out of power too. So no more Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, unless by some slim chance the CDU and the FDP ally with the Greens - theoretically possible, but unrealistic at least at the present.
This was my idea of having Merkel cede the Chancellorship to him but force him to hold to reform policies. Good for the country, bad for the SPD. Once polling indicates enough support has drifted away from them to the more radical left parties, pull out of the coalition and let him drown.
It shouldn't take long.
Consensus opinion in the office this morning was that Gerd was drunk off his kiester last night.
This is a terrible result for Germany. All it promises is years more sclerosis. The German electorate has shown that it has no appetite to make the painful choices desperately needed.
No way. Merkel/CDU was the majority winner (albeit by a whisker) therefore Herr Schroeder will be forced in the end to step down (his own party will force him out). SPD will be the junior partner and will hold the Foreign or Defense Ministry portfolios as well as several critical domestic portfolios.
Well, we'll have to wait and see.
This was what me and the missus thought when we saw him on the TV at 20.15 local time, when he laid into the interviewer for alleged negative reporting, and also shocked the other party leaders. Strangely unprofessional of him, we thought. He's said to be able to hold his booze pretty well, but maybe he had a glass or two over the limit when the results came in. Westerwelle - that shifty little shirt-lifter - implied as much.
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