DT-wxrisk Today, 11:42 AM Post
the Op 12z GFS is NOT BULLY!
In fact is is downright SILLY
if you think a 3 contoured closed 500 low is going to form over Vegas and southern calif in mid - late SEP you must be high . It is THAT huge 500 low --- way over done by the GFS -- that allow for RITA to make this turn NW right before landfall ....
gambling on the GFS with a Bizzare unlikely solution in late sept is NOT the way I am leaning
Oh, I know Dave Tolleris (DT.)
Kind of a strange guy, long story. Anyway, he has this weird pathological hatred of the GFS. It's not like the GFS is off by itself with some weird solution.
I just got a look at Eastern, in particular them pointing toward the GFDL model, which is suggesting (and yes, I think it's nuts) that Rita will make CAT 5 much, MUCH earlier (i.e., near Key West).
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=52689
The posters there are pointing out that the GFDL usually over-compensates on the intensity, but even given that, Rita could be notably stronger than the CAT 2 that most have suggested for arrival at Key West...