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Posted on 09/18/2005 1:56:41 PM PDT by NautiNurse
...Rita continues west-northwestward toward the Florida Keys...
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the government of the Bahamas has discontinued all warnings for the central Bahamas...and downgraded the Hurricane Warning for Andros Island to a Tropical Storm Warning. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the northwestern Bahamas... including the Abacos...Andros Island...Berry Islands... Bimini...Eleuthera...Grand Bahama Island...and New Providence.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys...and from Golden Beach on the Florida southeast coast southward to East Cape Sable...then northward to Chokoloskee on the southwest coast.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Villa Clara...Matanzas...Ciudad de Habana...and la Habana.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from Deerfield Beach Florida southward to north of Golden Beach.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida West Coast north of Chokoloskee to Englewood.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect along the Florida East Coast from north of Deerfield Beach northward to Jupiter Inlet...as well as for Lake Okeechobee.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila...Sancti Spiritus...Cienfuegos...and Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the remainder of the central and northwestern Bahamas.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Rita was located near latitude 23.7 north... longitude 79.5 west or about 160 miles... 255 km... east-southeast of Key West Florida.
Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph ...24 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On the forecast track...the center of Rita will be passing near the lower Florida Keys around midday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. Reports from reconaissance aircraft continue to indicate that Rita has not strengthened over the past few hours. However...Rita is expected to become a hurricane later today.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 120 miles ...195 km from the center.
Latest minimum central pressure reported by reconaissance aircraft was 988 mb...29.18 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...are possible in the Florida Keys in areas of onshore flow. Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 4 feet is possible along the extreme southeastern Florida coast.
Rita is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the western Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Storm totals of 6 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in the Florida Keys and central and northwestern Cuba. Storm total accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible across the southern Florida Peninsula.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...23.7 N... 79.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 15 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 988 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 am EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
the radar presentation of Rita is slowly becoming better defined... but the cyclone still lacks a clear and persistent eyewall signature. Flight-level and dropsonde observations from the Air Force reconaissance aircraft still do not quite support upgrading Rita to a hurricane. A peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 72 kt winds would correspond to 65 kt in an eyewall...but Rita does not have a true eyewall and dropsonde data indicate that 90 percent is not the appropriate adjustment with this storm at this time. The intensity will be held at 60 kt at this time.
Rita remains basically on track...with an initial motion of 285/13. Little change has been made to the official forecast in the early going...as Rita moves south of mid-level high pressure through the Florida Straits. Late in the forecast period...the GFS...UKMET... and GFDL models have shifted westward toward the middle Texas coast...while the NOGAPS is still on the south end of the guidance envelope in extreme south Texas. The official forecast is adjusted a little westward toward the dynamical model consensus. At this point it is way to early to specify where the Gulf landfall might occur.
Rita is still expected to reach hurricane strength very soon. The upper-level flow pattern is favorable for strengthening but not overly so...with outflow a little squashed to the north and non-existent to the south...and the upper anticyclone located well to the east of the center. Even the radar presentation looks elongated. Steady...but not explosive development is likely during the next 12 to 24 hours. The upper pattern could improve somewhat in the Gulf of Mexico and Rita is still forecast to become a major hurricane. The most recent SHIPS guidance...however...does not quite get Rita there...and I would not be shocked if Rita ends up falling just short of that threshold.
Forecaster Franklin
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 20/0900z 23.7n 79.5w 60 kt 12hr VT 20/1800z 24.1n 81.7w 70 kt 24hr VT 21/0600z 24.4n 84.4w 80 kt 36hr VT 21/1800z 24.6n 87.0w 90 kt 48hr VT 22/0600z 24.7n 89.3w 95 kt 72hr VT 23/0600z 25.5n 93.0w 100 kt 96hr VT 24/0600z 28.5n 96.0w 100 kt 120hr VT 25/0600z 32.5n 97.5w 35 kt...inland
NN: Thanks for everything you do. Appreciate it.
CD: Don't take your eyes off this slippery monkey. I got a feeling it's.. here we go again, time. Just tonight on TWC they said there were more evacuees in SA than in Houston. If it comes in and makes that north west arc, where do they go from there? Just damn.
Not much to talk about here in Boca. We got some heavy rain for about 5 minutes. I'm driving to work in Broward today in another 10 minutes. They've shut down all the schools there so I don't expect heavy traffic which will be nice. Prayers for our neighbors to the South and West. Fortunately, at the speed Rita's moving at we can hope for minimal flooding.
Things have been pretty quiet the last half hour, but radar shows a large spiral band just about to move into my area. Hope my power stays on.
Amen to that. Katrina passed through here so slowly, she dumped nearly 20 inches of rain in my area. Almost every neighborhood from Perrine south to Homestead had about two to three feet of water for a couple of days.
That band has moved in. Rain sounds like gravel pelting my hurricane shutters.
NO Mayer has told everyone to evacuate again.
This since Job Corp says levees are not stable for any coming rains.
Folks just comin' back in now have to literally turn around and go back out.
I know I could not afford to do what they are having to do. Be cheaper to relocate and start over.
Galvastan (sp) Texas is considering evacuation at this time.
Bottom line is Rita a hurricane yet and what is her Catagory prediction?
I did hear on Fox that the mayor of Galveston has school buses on standby to evacuate people. The weather guy emphasized this, which I thought was interesting.
Galveston had the rep of being the best prepared city on the gulf for these storms. After Katrina we aren't taking any chances.
Key West moved it's people out ok.
Seems all areas evacuated well except NO.
The Mayor sayin put your left foot out, put your left foot in, put your left foot our and shake it all about do the Hokey Pokey and ....
Well you get the idea how frustrating that can be when moving lives.
Lets see TX and FL have Republicans who have their heads in the game, LA has a bunch of corrupt rats running things. You do the math.
You said what I was thinking.
Thank you so much for your great info....we decided to hang in there at home since our Miami relations were moving around. Looks like the night was a bit kinder to us than we had even hoped. Still in for an ugly day, but amazingly, we all got a good night's sleep.
LBelle
That latest analysis is a bit of good news. Rita doesn't seem to want to strengthen the way Katrina did. If she stays a 2 across to TX, there should be little impact on the crude oil supply after a week or two. The refined products will go up but mainly due to advance buying by the independents and people who like to hoard. Even with diminished capacity we are back to pre-Katrina retail prices here.
Rita is still a TS, with top winds at 70 MPH. They were predicting she'd be a Cat 2 by the time she passes by Key West, but it doesn't look that way anymore. If she still does, though, she could easily reach a 3 as she moves through the gulf. Katrina was a Cat 1 as she moved over Miami, dropped to a TS just as she moved out of the Everglades, and immediately went back to Cat 1 when she hit the gulf. We all know what happened over the next two days.
Yes indeed. They were using transit buses to move out the elderly, tourists, and people without a car. Something that never occured to those rocket scientists in Louisiana.
Nice for the MSM and the rest of the world to witness the difference between Jeb Bush and Kathleen Blanco...but I'm sure they won't care. Doesn't fit the preconceived notions of the Twilight Zone they live in.
Al says Katrina proves the climate is a'changing. Maybe someone should tell him New Orleans got hit by Betsy in '65, and got a direct hit in 1915.
I swear, liberals seem to actually believe there were no hurricanes prior to 2000.
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