[ukman]

It's not that Merkel is a woman (and a rather frumpy one at that); her performance WAS poor, and wheeling out that flat-tax professor was what sunk her campaign. Everybody spotted this as a tax increase (on top of a VAT hike) on low to middle earners which would only benefit the very rich. Very foolish. The FDP picked up votes at the expense of the CDU because they rejected any flat-tax straight away.

The knives will out for her now in her own party. Stoiber and Koch among others both think they could do better. How she comports herself now in coalition negotiations will decide on whether she will be the candidate in the next election (fairly soon if a government can't be formed).

Luckily for her, the Left party cost the SPD votes (mainly in the east), otherwise it would have been a landslide victory for Schröder - the irony of it!

[stefan10]

Your analyze is more than correct.

I saw the first result at eight o´clock and i could not believe it.

Nobody expected that result it is more than a mystery.

The CDU is the only party on that planet that could loose a more than 20% lead in only two month.

Thanks to a bad candidate and a even worse campaign.

Merkel is dead in my opinion. She has only one option a coalition with schröder. All other speculations are wishful thinking. Jesus a coalition between Beckstein and Ströbele.
If the CDU does not accept schröder as a chancellor in a grand coalition the SPD will go for a new vote and a new election.

How should the CDU make and win a new campaign with Merkel after this result. They will have to choose a new candidate but this is very risky but perhaps wulf with merz as the new financial hope. That could save the CDU