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Your analyze is more than correct.

I saw the first result at eight o´clock and i could not believe it.

Nobody expected that result it is more than a mystery.

The CDU is the only party on that planet that could loose a more than 20% lead in only two month.

Thanks to a bad candidate and a even worse campaign.

Merkel is dead in my opinion. She has only one option a coalition with schröder. All other speculations are wishful thinking. Jesus a coalition between Beckstein and Ströbele.
If the CDU does not accept schröder as a chancellor in a grand coalition the SPD will go for a new vote and a new election.

How should the CDU make and win a new campaign with Merkel after this result. They will have to choose a new candidate but this is very risky but perhaps wulf with merz as the new financial hope. That could save the CDU