Germany about to elect a pro-Bush government

The American left is going to be squealing like a pig...or more likely ignoring the situation as the Germans elect a pro-Bush government, possibly by a landslide in Sunday's national elections.

Today's poll results have the CDU at 42% against the SPD's 32% with the conservative FDP at 7% and the leftist Greens at 7% and the Communists at 8%. Remember, just like in an American state, it is a winner take all event at least for the direct vote for a specific parliament candidate in each district. With a ten point advantage overall, the CDU could theoretically win every directly elected seat in parliament.

The Communists are having a temper tantrum like the Naderites in 2000. They want to sacrifice this election in order to destroy the center-left Schroeder and Joschke Fischer who only talked about being anti-American but still have German troops in Afghanistan and allow the USA to use Germany as an airport, hospital station and depot for the war in the middle east.

All districts in Germany do not vote uniformly. There are "Blue States" and "Red States" in Germany...but it goes down to the Congressional District level. Just like we looked for the magic number 271 for Bush's Electoral College, the magic number in Germany will be 300 seats in a 600 seat parliament. There are also two votes in Germany: one for the person actually running in that district and one for a political party. Half of parliament is directly elected and the other half is appointed in proportion to the percentage of votes a given party received in the election as long as the party received at least 5% of the vote.

Because many districts are homogenous, the CDU/FDP Conservative Bloc may not get a landslide victory but, rather, win with a small majority similar to the poll results (the polls actually have them at 49% but the left has less).

But, since the CDU is at 42% opposed to the 32% SPD...we could see a landslide with traditional left wing neighborhoods splitting so heavily between the commies and the liberals and greens... that a CDU with even 30% support in such districts could win.

Keep in mind also: the SPD and Greens regard the Communists as hated enemies who threaten their existence in the same way that Nader threatened the Democrats. A parliament with a 4% contingent of indirectly elected communists will mean that the regular liberals will be wedged between enemies and powerless.

The only danger is that the SPD/Greens/Communists end up with their current 48% winning the day combined against a low turnout for conservative voters or super Kerry style turnout for liberals. Then Schroeder could remain Chancellor if he actually allied with the commies...which is entirely possible!

There are conservative ads in Germany warning against this Red-Red-Green Coalition which would be a nightmare for us all. Germany would have to veer way off to the left and pull troops out of Afghanistan at the least.

Fortunately...I totally doubt this will happen because of the winner take all effect of the directly elected half of parliament as compared to the proportional seat alottment of the other half of parliament. I see a conservative earthquake.

Where do you get your knowledge and numbers from?

The CDU got 38,5% in 2002
The same numbers as the SPD which also got 38,5 %

There is not a single chance for the CDU to got more than 50% and anybody knows that.

The CDU and Merkel will win this election but it is a question of the coaltition that governs germany.

Foreign policy was no topic during this election campaign.
But to be honest there will be no real change in the german foreign policy. Merkel will have to make enough hard decisions she does not need problems on the field of foreign policy. There will be no support in Iraq . The german troops will stay in Afghanistan but that´s all.

Americans who believe that everything will change in terms of german foreign policy will be disappointed.

Until that, I still have some hours of campaigning. WE´LL MAKE IT!!!

Campaign as if the CDU was running 20 points behind, and you will make a difference. Your energy will be contagious.

Remember that the most effective way to get votes is to go after voters who are predisposed to vote for the CDU but need encouragement. Continue those phone calls and personal visits to friendly potential voters, and ignore the disagreeble people looking for arguments.

Good hunting for CDU votes

I disagree Stefan. First of all, foreign policy was an issue. A smaller, granted, but foreign policy never decided elections - except the last.

Turkey won´t become a EU-member, the axis Paris-Berlin within the EU will be replaced by more cooperation with smaller EU-states, and outside the EU the axis Paris-Berlin-Moscow will perish. Merkel will adress the Chechnya war when talking to Putin, and the arms embargo for China will continue. Germany wants more dialogue with the US; it is unbearable that Schröder and Bush haven´t phoned for months. It´s essential to set the aims we have together (e.g. Iran).

I agree that regarding Iraq, there will be no shift. A CDU government cannot and will not send troops in at a time, when more and more coalition countries withdraw (for instance Norway, as announced today).

Thanks, but we´re better in campaigning when we´re leading. :-) That makes it easier to gain support and getting back a smile from people is nicer than hearing insults. I think it makes a difference, especially during the last hours. The voters get an impression of our courage, so I´ll be working tomorrow for Sundays victory almost the entire day (9 am till 12 am; 2 pm till 7 pm; 8 pm till 11.30 pm).

Thank y´all for your good wishes. I know Germany won´t disappoint you this time. :-) After all, I promised you for years we would win.

"I could care less about Germany. They don't give a dam about our country. Perhaps their still bitter about WWII??"

I disagree with you. A few years back we took a cruise down the canal to Hamburg, Germany. It was one of the largest ships to ever pass in this canal and the German people were there by the hundreds to greet us. American flags every where and a band playing the God Bless America.

We had several ports we stopped at. Germany was by far the largest and friendliest crowd with Estonia,(Russia), coming in second.

The question of Turkey is a problem that has to be solved in ten or fifteen years. I agree that at the moment there is no chance for additional countries to join the EU. The EU has enough work to do at the moment.

But i disagree with the position of the CDU there. You can not make foreign policy on such a base and it does not help our economic interests. To take such a strong position at a time when it is not necessary is making the same mistakes as Schröder again. There are a lot of countries within the EU and outside the EU (UK USA) supporting Turkey. We need a common position within the EU and the CDU is not helpful here.

There will be no real change in the relation and friendship to France. What kind of cooperation should that be? If you look at the different EU topics there have always been different coalitions. Every german government had special relations to France and this was a wise and clever decision.

If you believe that Chechnya will be a major topic then you should wake up in the real world where other interests are important. Just look at the peace and human rights loving green party. You must be very young if you believe that the CDU will change anything there. Russia is too important for us to be childish sorry.

Hopefully there will be better relations to the US but it would be not fair to establish some hopes here that there will be major changes in our foreign policy under a CDU government.

And so on and on

Unemployment taxes and economy are the issues of that election campaign and these are the reasons why i vote for the CDU and why the CDU will win.
If foreign policy would have played a major role we would see Schröder again because a vast majority in our country supports his position including a huge part of my conservative family.

It would be nice if you could provide some infos about yourself. -

Chechnya will be adressed, take that for sure. Germany won´t make itself dependant from Russia, Merkel will keep independance as good as she can.

Never speculate about the age and try to conclude from that whether someone here is childish or not. Personal attacks make your point irrelevant, remember that.

I´m in full compliance with the CDU program on Turkey, and the time is right to spread it. Turkey shall not have false hopes - they´ll never become a EU-member. It´s just fair to tell them now.

And as far as France as concerned, inform yourself about the views Merkel and Sarkozy have about Europe, and you will learn that France/Germany are not going to oppress other EU-members.

I hope that you won´t be too disappointed once you wake up in a country that pays respect to its neighbours and European friends, that addresses crimes against humanity everywhere (China, Russia) and that does not sell our national interests to a so-called peace lobby.

Michael

Ok let´s bet and save this post and we meet again in one year.

Merkel will win this election and so we can proof who is right and wrong.

In terms of Turkey.
Even if someone ( as i do) has the opinion that turkey will not belong to the EU ( at least not in decades) it is necessary to take a common standpoint within the EU and as you saw at the last meeting the position of Austria and the CDU has no majority ( to be friendly)
You can not call for a better and not oppressing policy and continue to make the same mistakes as Schröder did. And we germans are not the one who decide who will join the EU or not don´t you think. Your opinion is a little bit arrogant in my view given the fact that there are 24 other countries.

In terms of Russia Herr von Pierer and the chief of E-ON and other strong supporter of the CDU are just waiting for such comments about russia. Merkel made it very clear that she wants strong and good relations to russia. We got more than 50% of our natural gas from russia and this is still growing. Russia is a key market for most of our companies.
So what do you think will happen in terms of Russia? Perhaps a sentence during a press meeting after signing some contracts?

by the way i would not bet on sarkozy at the moment (if you know the situation in france a little bit) but that´s a different topic.

Election campaigns are emotional and i guess you had too many days campaigning to allow yourself a different view.

1. Introduce yourself.
2. I am not campaigning on FR, are you?? So it´s not a place to discuss on a personal level.
3. Strong words and reluctance on further economic decisions regarding Russia will make a difference.
4. The admission of Turkey to the EU is a threat to the national security of the Federal Republic of Germany. We have the largest "colony" of Turks outside of Turkey, so we will be affected by that decision more than any other EU state. It is never arrogant if a EU member state, which is still sovereign, vetoes a decision that poses a threat to its national security. If you want further discussion, go to someone else. I have learned to save my time for people you are open for arguments.
5. Look up § 762 BGB for bets.
6. I´m sure Sarkozy will be the next French President, talk with our French FReepers.
7. Your continued personal attacks make me laugh about you.
Who are you, Mr. X? The next Chancellor??

1. If you read my post you can learn a lot about me

2. I only refer to other posts of you where you talk about your campaign. I was once a member of the CDU and i still vote for this party but i am old enough to remember the reunification and the Kohl government very well. The huge economic mistakes the lack of reforms and the "Rente ist sicher" etc etc.
Not to mention the close relations to Jelzin where the green opposition party always asked about human rights and the war. Now it´s up to the CDU to ask this questions. Next week we will here the other site demanding hard actions on that field.
2. You don´t answer questions. So you think it is ok to take such a hard tough and isolated position without looking for a common solution within the EU on the issue of Turkey. But you demand a new better and not oppressing foreign policy.
"It is never arrogant if a EU member state, which is still sovereign, vetoes a decision that poses a threat to its national security"

Did you copy this sentence from a Schröder speech and the Iraq topic?

7. I don´t make personal attacks but you just defend party positions on every issue by repeating party arguments.
if i asked you about the Bundesrat you would say it was good to block eichels laws in terms of the Eigenheimzulage etc because he just wanted to fix his budget problems and you would continue to say that he does violate the Maatricht rules.

I would say that if a subsidy like the Eigenheimzulage is wrong because the real estate market in Germany does not need such a subsidy it should be history. There is no right to any subsidy until it is really needed.
If this leads to a easier and better tax system on a lower level very good. I have to pay taxes and even my children will have to pay the rates of this debt so every action that reduces our deficit is good action.
i want progress in my country and economic reforms. I don´t want party games and that´s what the CDU played in the last years. They get the chance to govern and to show their economic wisdom. They should better use it or it was the last time i vote in my country.

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