Posted on 09/11/2005 3:28:25 PM PDT by SmithL
The chaos will wash in on a heavy, warm rain. It will tumble down mountainsides as the unseasonably balmy storm melts a thick snowpack. It will barrel downstream as rivers thrash within their levees.
Then it will burst free, a flood that will leave hundreds of thousands sodden, shell-shocked and saying - as those watching New Orleans have been saying for two weeks - "We all knew this could happen."
Many will echo the second refrain now heard from the ruins of the depopulated Louisiana city: "Why weren't we better prepared?"
In California's Central Valley, a region that endures repeated floods while neglecting flood protection, shielded by levees that the state itself calls "a ticking time bomb," there will be no doubt the disaster could have been averted.
While most people would rather not confront it so starkly, California has made a bargain with its rivers, and in the Central Valley the bargain is this: We're willing to risk getting swamped rather than pay to stay dry.
So the next question becomes: How will we make it out alive?
In all likelihood, better than New Orleanians, say those most familiar with how the Central Valley prepares for and suffers from its floods.
"Even the most thorough planning will be defeated somewhere," said Jeffrey Mount, a state Reclamation Board member. "You expect to have failures, you expect to have surprises, but not total, complete breakdown."
(Excerpt) Read more at sacbee.com ...
The CA legislature just adjorned without acting on this. But, I'm willing to bet that they found the time to budget for the "IT'S BUSH'S FAULT!" signs.
In all my years of living in CA, I have never heard of this danger. I know the Central Valley used to be geographically different when the rivers flowed, but flooding on the scale of New Orleans? This doesn't sound right.
Never been to Frank's Tract?
http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=38.045928,-121.626205&spn=0.125858,0.240704&t=h&hl=en
Just a Note to All Those Amateur Hydrologists Out There.
You think those stupid people in New Orleans living “below sea level” should never be allowed to live there again? Better checkout your own back yard first.
First sea level, or not, is not the issue. Your height above the 100 or 200 year flood plane is.
First, the depth of New Orleans below sea level has been greatly exaggerated in every press report I’ve seen. It’s not “an average of 6 feet below sea level”, or “18 feet below sea level” as the worse claim I saw. The standard cross section shown over and over in the press shows New Orleans surrounded by the Mississippi River and Lake Pontchartrain both at maximum flood stage, 16 to 20 feet above sea level. Based on the geographic data I’ve seen New Orleans averages 2 to 3 feet below sea level.
New Orleans was filled not by a simple break that let the ocean in, but a freak cat 4-5 hurricane that hit exactly the wrong spot. A 20 foot storm surge sloshed over the wet lands separating the lake from the ocean. The levees held for 18 hours before about 300 feet of the 300 mile long levee system broke allowing the flood-stage lake to drain into the city. Bombing out a nature preserve called Bayou Savage on Tuesday night would have greatly reduced the damage to the city, by quickly lowering the lake level, but some birds would have been upset. It didn’t happen of course.
The levee that broke was recently improved. Everyone knew it was built to Cat 3 hurricane specs. It actually held up even better than the design spec.
I predict that New Orleans will be drained by October 1st or before and rebuilding will begin (You read it here first).
Meanwhile, like I said, checkout your own backyard first. If you live anywhere along the US east coast or Gulf coast and are less than 20 feet or so above sea level, a cat 4 for 5 storm can kill you too. Ask the people along the Mississippi coast. It takes only a few minutes for you to drown not weeks of flooding.
Ask New York and Boston about the Great Hurricane of 1938. Study the “Big Dig” also known as I-93 and the Kerry/Kennedy Dieway. It’s the main evacuation route out of Boston and is 100 feet below sea level. It only cost you 14 billion federal tax dollars to build.
If you live in California checkout the 2000 miles of levees that protect 2 million of your citizens in the flood plane. Another 18 million people depend on those levees for their water. Good thing there are no earth quakes in California.
If you live anywhere near the Missouri or Mississippi Rivers you better check out the levees that protect you. Been some earth quakes there too, I heard.
If you live downstream of any dam, maybe you better go check out its safety before you talk about those stupid people in New Orleans.
There are thousands of more examples out there, but my typing finger is tired.
Me, I’m smart and safe. I live in Tornado Alley and I’m well protected by the Trinity River levees.
Excuse me???
No I haven't. Can you be more specific as to where and what I am looking at?
First sea level, or not, is not the issue. Your height above the 100 or 200 year flood plane is.
There is a h-u-g-e distinction to be made about living below sea level and living in a 100 year flood plain. Water will naturally recede from a 100 year flood plain in a quite rapid manner. As we see in New Orleans, water below sea level tends not to recede.
What part don't you understand?
Why in the world you posted it to me.
Great post. Deserves its own headline.
Drowning in a tropical storm is typically not a major threat unless you're in a car and do something stupid.
Futhermore, I suspect that very few deaths caused by Katrina were the result of drowning, even though New Orleans is below sea level.
"Will we be ready if our levees break?"
It all depends on whether you have put the taxpayer money into levee improvements, or you have used it to decorate your office.
The so called leaders of LA better think about it cause hurricane season is not over yet. Far from it.
"tropical storm?"
Ask the 200 in Mississippi what they died of.
They're talking about the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, region which does have such a problem with levees, but doesn't have 1.4 million people like New Orleans. Other than Rio Vista (population 6,000+) and Isleton (population 849), it's mostly farmland, none of which is below sea level.
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