CDU accuses Schröder of ‘dirty tricks'. (German Election)

The Economist Online ^ | 9 September 2005 | September 9 2005

[lowbuck]

Germany's opposition Christian Democrats on Friday accused chancellor Gerhard Schröder of using lies and dirty tricks to discredit Angela Merkel, as a fresh opinion poll indicated that the chances of a decisive election victory for the CDU leader appeared to be slipping away.

Volker Kauder, CDU general secretary, attacked the chancellor for allowing his Social Democrats to spread “bare-faced and brazen lies” about the CDU's tax proposals.

The unusually harsh criticism of the chancellor suggested the CDU is scrambling to regain the political upper hand, following the publication of the third poll in three days predicting the CDU will fail to gain a majority in the September 18 election with the liberal Free Democrats, its preferred coalition partner.

The poll showed the SPD gaining two percentage points to 34 per cent, and the CDU losing two points to 41 per cent. On this basis, Ms Merkel would become chancellor but probably as head of a “grand coalition” with the SPD.

On Friday a senior CDU politician admitted for the first that the public might not support the tough economic reforms likely under a CDU-FDP alliance.

Christoph Böhr, CDU deputy leader, said in a newspaper interview that “perhaps there is no clear majority in our society backing the path for which [a CDU-FDP alliance] stands”. Friday's poll showed that 35 per cent of Germans preferred a grand coalition, compared with 31 per cent backing a CDU-FDP alliance.

Mr Schröder was upbeat on Friday, saying in an interview that the “SPD is gaining ground, there is lots of movement [in voting preferences] and everything is still possible”.

He said this week that he hoped the SPD would reach 38 per cent, leading to speculation on Friday that he could abandon the Greens, his current coalition partner, and lead a grand coalition with the CDU, if the SPD were to edge out the CDU as the largest party.

Mr Kauder said SPD staff were aware that negative campaign posters about the CDU's tax plans were inaccurate, a charge the SPD denied. Klaus Uwe Benneter, SPD general secretary, said Mr Kauder was “losing his nerve”.

Separately, election officials said on Friday that voting in a constituency in Dresden in eastern Germany would be delayed until October 2, because a candidate had died and it would take time to reorganise the ballot. This postponement means that, if next Sunday's election is very close, the final results could be delayed until after the Dresden vote.

[lowbuck]

As we enter the last week before the election things begin to heat up.

When the dust settles we shall see if there is a chance for a way forward for change or if the country will continue to muck about. I hope, for my German friends, for change however painful. We shall see.

[Chi-townChief]

It's looking like the Germans will drop the ball on this one and end up with Schroder again.

[AmericaUnited]

Remember, just like in this country, the 'conservative candidate' always polls lower than what actually comes in.

[Michael81Dus]

No. There is no strategic majority in the new parliament for Schröder. It´s so simple. Schröder will only stay in power with a SPD-Green coalition. But the options are a SPD-Green-Communist coalition (ruled out by SPD and Greens), a Grand Coalition of CDU and SPD (with Merkel as Chancellor) or a CDU-FDP coalition (my favorite). It depends on the results, but one´s for sure already: Schröder is history.

[lowbuck]

Hello Michael,

I cannot vote, but I hope for a CSU/CDU + FDP coalition as I hope the German economy will really revive to the betterment of all living here. I think this grouping would allow for the best way forward economically speaking.

[Chi-townChief]

I hope you're right, Michael - as time goes by, it becomes more and more critical to repair the North Atlantic alliance as well as bringing in our friends from the former Soviet bloc. The future won't wait, as they say.

[Heatseeker]

I will be watching this one very carefully; in some ways the fate of Europe hinges on it, I think, since among the big EU states France is social-model and Britain is market-model (I am simplifying of course) so Germany is the tie-breaker.

I hope that Germans will make the courageous choice. If there must be a CSU/CDU + SPD coalition though, how are the various portfolios chosen? Such as Finance Minister and Foreign Minister?

[Michael81Dus]

Don´t even dare to think that!! LOL
This would be a catastrophe, since the SPD is leaning more to the Left, and there won´t be much progress with reforms.

[Heatseeker]

I don't doubt it. As for ministerial posts, as much as I would like to see a CDU/CSU person there to make up for having to deal with Joschka Fischer all this time, I think the more important portfolio is Finance.

[An.American.Expatriate]

Hi Michael,

I too hope that the CDU/CSU & FDP get out the vote and defeat the SPD Greens.

My only concern is the "Linkspartei". SPD & Greens have claimed no coalition, but, if it allowed them to remain in power, I'm certain they would accept a coalition....

Let's pray that it's not that close!!

[Michael81Dus]

Let's pray that it's not that close!!

We all have that concern, that the Linkspartei could tolerate or support the Red-Greens. But I don´t consider that realistic.

Praying is good. I do that every day. And I desperately hope that we have that 1% in the end we miss today.

[Michael81Dus]

The Finance Minister will probably be a CDU-person. The Chancellor will be Merkel (CDU), a likely Vice Chancellor and Foreign Minister is Peer Steinbrück (SPD) (the people of Northrhine-Westphalia voted him out of Governor-office in May).

[Heatseeker]

Thank you Michael! I hope the CDU/CDS will be able to make up some ground in the last days. I'm really looking forward to "Chancellor Merkel".

[Michael81Dus]

A new start.

As you predicted, in the last published poll before we go to the ballots on Sunday, emnid institute data reads as follows: CDU 42% (+1,5), SPD 33,5% (-1), Linkspartei 8%, Greens 7%, FDP 6,5% (-0,5). Therefore, we have a tie between left and right. It´ll be a tight race and I´m filled with adrenaline just when I think of Sunday. Since I´m one of the citizens in a voter office checking the voters and counting the votes, I hope I can stay calm on 6 pm local time, when we close the room and the first polls are published. But I´ve no real doubt, I´ve some self-control. :-)

The reason, why there most likely won´t be a new poll is, that traditionally the institutes for demography distance themselves from voter manipulation through polls. I´m optimistic that we can make it, the polls are close and we´re (re-)gaining sympathy. The people have accepted that Merkel will govern them, so all we need is to tell them that a Grand Coalition is Grand Sh**. ;-)

[Heatseeker]

This is indeed a very good sign. (I only wish the polling companies in the US were so ethical!)

You saw a similar sort of pattern in the last days before the 1980 US presidential election. Polls in late October showed the race quite close, yet in the last days before the election on November 4th, Reagan opened a significant lead which the American "electoral college" system magnified into a landslide. People remember that last aspect and not the closeness of the race in the days before.

What happened, probably, was a process of people getting comfortable with the idea of a new direction and new leadership. I hope the same thing is happening in Germany now - as Michael said, people have concluded that Angela will be Chancellor and therefore, to avoid gridlock, it makes sense to give her a real ability to change policy.

[GOPGuide]

"The reason, why there most likely won´t be a new poll is, that traditionally the institutes for demography distance themselves from voter manipulation through polls."

That is horrible! I would have DIED of a stroke if the major US polling agencies stopped releasing polling data for the Senate, Presidential, Governor, and House races 5 days before the 2004 election!

In any event, The two most recent polls show that Merkel is either tied, or 1 point ahead of SPD-Grune-Linke parties.

If Merkel is at least tied at this point, I will expect a 1.5-2% majority for the CDU-FDP over their opponents on election day because the effect of the debates is wearing off quickly.

Linke and Grune can't move out of their 8-7% range, so the key will be for the CDU to take 0.5% from Schroder's SPD. This sounds very probable since undecided voters tend to break at the last minute to the opposition party against the incumbent, at least this is how it works in the US.

[KC_Conspirator]

Are you the guy I have the bet with?

[Michael81Dus]

Yep, good that you called me. I didn´t remember your name. :-)

And the bet was, that Schröder will be out of office until Oct 30th, right?

[KC_Conspirator]

Our bet is whether Schroeder wins or loses. I had said I expected him to revert to anti-American rhetoric like he did last time in order to win.

Well, we have about 4 days left. Usually, undecideds break against the incumbent, which in this case would be Shroeder. But thats American politics. I guess the there are alot of domestic problems that Shroeder never addressed or made worse?

[Michael81Dus]

So what´s a Schröder win? If he remains in office? I´d guess so. Therefore, you better check out www.uso.com :-)
But still I hope that you cross your fingers for a center-of-right victory. A grand coalition of CDU and SPD would be a worst-case scenario.