[Michael81Dus]

A new start.

As you predicted, in the last published poll before we go to the ballots on Sunday, emnid institute data reads as follows: CDU 42% (+1,5), SPD 33,5% (-1), Linkspartei 8%, Greens 7%, FDP 6,5% (-0,5). Therefore, we have a tie between left and right. It´ll be a tight race and I´m filled with adrenaline just when I think of Sunday. Since I´m one of the citizens in a voter office checking the voters and counting the votes, I hope I can stay calm on 6 pm local time, when we close the room and the first polls are published. But I´ve no real doubt, I´ve some self-control. :-)

The reason, why there most likely won´t be a new poll is, that traditionally the institutes for demography distance themselves from voter manipulation through polls. I´m optimistic that we can make it, the polls are close and we´re (re-)gaining sympathy. The people have accepted that Merkel will govern them, so all we need is to tell them that a Grand Coalition is Grand Sh**. ;-)

[Heatseeker]

This is indeed a very good sign. (I only wish the polling companies in the US were so ethical!)

You saw a similar sort of pattern in the last days before the 1980 US presidential election. Polls in late October showed the race quite close, yet in the last days before the election on November 4th, Reagan opened a significant lead which the American "electoral college" system magnified into a landslide. People remember that last aspect and not the closeness of the race in the days before.

What happened, probably, was a process of people getting comfortable with the idea of a new direction and new leadership. I hope the same thing is happening in Germany now - as Michael said, people have concluded that Angela will be Chancellor and therefore, to avoid gridlock, it makes sense to give her a real ability to change policy.

[GOPGuide]

"The reason, why there most likely won´t be a new poll is, that traditionally the institutes for demography distance themselves from voter manipulation through polls."

That is horrible! I would have DIED of a stroke if the major US polling agencies stopped releasing polling data for the Senate, Presidential, Governor, and House races 5 days before the 2004 election!

In any event, The two most recent polls show that Merkel is either tied, or 1 point ahead of SPD-Grune-Linke parties.

If Merkel is at least tied at this point, I will expect a 1.5-2% majority for the CDU-FDP over their opponents on election day because the effect of the debates is wearing off quickly.

Linke and Grune can't move out of their 8-7% range, so the key will be for the CDU to take 0.5% from Schroder's SPD. This sounds very probable since undecided voters tend to break at the last minute to the opposition party against the incumbent, at least this is how it works in the US.