Yearly US Deficit or Surplus, 1961-2004

http://www.cbo.gov/ ^ | 09/09/05 | Congressional Budget Office

[Rippin]

Got any deficit data? Or just debt data?

[antiRepublicrat]

Is the federal government spending too much? "Yes." Do I blame the Repbulicans? "Yes." ... Did 'W' use veto power enough? "No."

The chart simply reflects those feelings you and I have in common. That's all.

[esarlls3]

See also:

Grandfather Economic Report, http://mwhodges.home.att.net/

[zeugma]

I think it's mostly just debt data. You could extrapolate it though, since I have yearly figures going to 1791. Subtract 1791 from 1792, 1792 from 1793, etc. I could make that an item in my spreadsheet pretty easily. If I can remember, I'll do that and print up some charts.

[zeugma]

I like it. Would you mind me linking to it from my Debt page?

[PotentialCore]

Section. 8.

Clause 1: The Congress shall have Power To lay and collect Taxes, Duties, Imposts and Excises, to pay the Debts and provide for the common Defence and general Welfare of the United States;

How does it stack up with control of Congress?

[RWR8189]

Besides being outdated by about a year and a half, it would be more relevant to see a chart with deficits/surplus in terms of GDP.

[processing please hold]

bttt

[RightWhale]

They have the opportunity to fix this

Well, there was WTC911, the subsequent wars, and now Katrina. We won't see black ink for a while.

[esarlls3]

I'm not the author. You'll have to contact him. I don't think he would mind. He would probably be happy to cross link with you.

[zeugma]

Cool. I've got the link on my todo list :)

[remember]

Besides being outdated by about a year and a half, it would be more relevant to see a chart with deficits/surplus in terms of GDP.

The following graph shows the deficits/surpluses in terms of GDP since 1970:

The actual numbers and sources can be seen at http://home.att.net/~rdavis2/def06.html. The gray line shows the commonly reported "unified deficit", the green line shows the deficit including the funds being borrowed from Social Security, and the red line shows the deficit including the funds being borrowed from all of the trust funds. As a percentage of GDP, GW Bush is not running the largest deficits. However, he is running a close third behind Reagan and his father.

To be fair to GW's father, he inherited a large deficit from Reagan and that deficit got only slightly worse going into the 90-91 recession. The largest increases in the deficit occurred under GW (2000-03), Reagan (81-83), and Johnson (74-76). The largest decrease in the deficit was clearly under Clinton.

Still, a much better measure of our financial health is the DEBT as a percentage of GDP. It is the debt, not the deficit, that we and our children will have to pay interest on forever. The following graph shows the latest CBO projections for the debt as a percentage of GDP:

The actual numbers and sources can be seen at http://home.att.net/~rdavis2/cbobud05.html. If the tax cuts and the fix of the AMT (Alternate Minimum Tax) are extended, the debt is projected to increase from the current 64 percent of GDP to 81 percent of GDP by 2015. Then the Boomers start to retire and our finances really get interesting (see http://home.att.net/~rdavis2/pro2006.html.

[eraser2005]

Thanks for the data - It should be noted, however, that '74-'76 would not have been Johnson, but rather Nixon and Ford...

[remember]

Thanks for the data - It should be noted, however, that '74-'76 would not have been Johnson, but rather Nixon and Ford...

Ooops, you're right. I guess that I just remembered hearing about deficits under Johnson due to spending on "guns and butter" (the Vietnam War and the Great Society) and didn't look closely at the years. Looking at the numbers at http://home.att.net/~rdavis2/def06.html, I can see that the deficit increased under Johnson from 0.5% of GDP in 1966 to 2.9% of GDP in 1968. However, there was an even larger increase under Nixon/Ford, from 0.4% of GDP in 1974 to 4.2% of GDP in 1976.

Looking at the first graph at the above URL, spending increased over 2% of GDP from 1974 to 1975 and revenues decreased over 1% of GDP from 1974 to 1976. I believe that there was a recession around that time. Still, it's interesting to note that the increase in the deficit was worse than during Johnson's "guns and butter". Thanks for your correction.