Hurricane Ophelia Live Thread

NHC - NOAA ^ | 8 August 2005 | NHC - NOAA

[TheLion]

Hi Gabz, I just watched that on Fox....you are right, they don't have a clue.

[NautiNurse]

The Arachnid

p.s. I hate spiders

[AnAmericanMother]

Ah, that was when most of Beachview and Postell disappeared into the surf . . . and when the fresh water spring that used to be in somebody's back yard wound up on the beach just north of the lighthouse . . .

[nwctwx]

The track is tough, but there is a very good shot she will hit the U.S. at some point.

[jbstrick]

Amelia,

You in Savannah? I spent every summer of my youth in Pooler and Tybee. They are like my second home.

I just love GA.

I dont want this thing to turn and hit anywhere near there. My 92 year old grandmother lives in Pooler.

[NautiNurse]

As best I understand it, a trough just north of the storm will allow her to drift NE, but as the trough clears out, an area of high pressure is expected to force her back west again.

How did I do?

[nwctwx]

Sounds about right to me. :)

The trough will be too far north to fully grab the storm... then a pretty good high pressure will build in/south. I wouldn't be surprised to have it move S of W once it starts on a track back. Bastardi was hyping a cat3 tonight, but I wonder if she'll be able to get that strong.

[Dog Gone]

As opposed to nearly two weeks ago when all the models were in alignment for New Orleans, the models for this storm have no clue.

I like the BamD which has it moving due east at the end of the forecast period.

That would be unique. Send one of these suckers back to Africa.

[NautiNurse]

I like the BamD which has it moving due east at the end of the forecast period.
That would be unique. Send one of these suckers back to Africa.

That would be the blam-D model, with blam getting his well deserved revenge.

[VeniVidiVici]

How did I do?

:-) Better than me. I didn't see a trough! I just saw a bunch of highs marching across an earlier map.

This will be hell for beach erosion.

[NautiNurse]

lol - all I did was to take notes during the 11PM local wx report.

[Dog Gone]

LOL, I think blam ought to get his own blamdamn model run. Even when the storms miss him, they don't really miss him.

It was funny the first 154 times it happened this year. I doubt his sense of humor survived the first 95 times.

;-)

[VeniVidiVici]

hehe - as long as you make it past the tease, you should be ok. I usually find they hype it and then say we shouldn't worry about it.

[Gabz]

Howdy!

I don't know if it's a good thing or a bad thig that they are practically admitting they don't have a clue........however obliquely they are doing it.

[Gabz]

That would be the blam-D model, with blam getting his well deserved revenge.

Not a blam thing wrong with that!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[SamAdams76]

There is a rather large storm stationed off the coast of Northeast Florida that is churning with no direction known. You got the clouds, the winds, the heavy rains and all the other elements associated with tropical storm activity.

[varina davis]

Ophelia is intensifying just past midnight. Dvorak T # are now 4.0/4.0 and there now is a "weakly" closed wall, according to Recon:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/0224Z
B. 28 DEG 40 MIN N
79 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1363 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 309 DEG 57 KT
G. 214 DEG 19 NM
H. EXTRAP 991 MB
I. 19 C/ 1525 M
J. 22 C/ 1589 M
K. 17 C/ NA
L. WEAKLY CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/8
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA2 0816A OPHELIA OB 02
MAX FL WIND 57 KT SW QUAD 0219Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
MAX FL TEMP 23.5 C 225/12 NM FROM FL CNTR

[backhoe]

Funny you should mention Dora, considering Ophelia's possible course....we evacuated to near Tallahassee, where we had family, and the darn storm followed us across the state, went into the gulf, and IIRC went through the panhandle and Georgia from that side. Track of Dora

Interesting! Never had the "honor" of being chased by a hurricane.

There was one other storm when I was a baby, that tore the end off the pier in the Village-- I was too small to remember it, but my Dad saw it go floating past the house.

[backhoe]

Ah, that was when most of Beachview and Postell disappeared into the surf . . . and when the fresh water spring that used to be in somebody's back yard wound up on the beach just north of the lighthouse . . .

Yes, that "spring" was an uncapped artesian well- the same thing we used for water at the house. Until the "pup mill" drew the water down so far it quit flowing, we had water even when the power was off. Which happened with amazing regularity. Always had hurricane lamps and a few "farm" lanterns handy for power failures.

[PLMerite]

Looks like she's just gonna do doughnuts out in the ocean for a while.