Well, if you think back to September 1997, the GOP landscape for the 2000 election was nowhere near ready to determine a front-runner. In fact, it was later than that when a generally intelligent and politically savvy co-worker surmised that Senator John Ashcroft was a likely front-runner for the GOP nomination. W was getting his re-election campaign for Governor of Texas into full swing. So I would say, yes it is MUCH too soon to handicap the race for the 2008 nomination. But I will say this: If the nominee is either McCain or Guiliani, the democrats will win the presidency in 08 because even a hillary candidacy will not energize the GOP base enough to embrace either of those RINOs.
This sure sounds like '92 all over again.