[Diddle E. Squat]

Forecast model tracks at 6pm Friday, which actually had come out several hours earlier, converging on SE LA:

The official forecast track was at that time still around a Pascagoula, MS hit, but it was somewhat of an average, with many models suggesting LA.

Link to timestamp:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1471043/posts?page=387#387"

[Wolfstar]

That's a great image of the storm track, Diddle.

[Diddle E. Squat]

nwctwx, do you know where to look for archived maps of the official NHC forecast tracks, and archives of the models they use? Would really be helpful to provide graphical time stamps of when the models first started converging on SE LA. IIRC, the 12z run (7am central?) of one of the most realiable models had shifted west to a LA hit, and that by midday many of the models were converging on LA, but not enough for the NHC to shift all the way to LA, so the 5pm (4 central) NHC forecast track was shifted only west to Pascagoula. Am trying to illustrate the big forecast shifts on Friday and the data prompting that took place long before 11pm, and thus the argument that "We went to bed Friday night thinking it was a FL hurricane and woke up to find it a LA hurricane" is a total lie.

Here's a post that states that the 18z model run of Bamm,GFDL, GFS all showed a LA hit, but his link is too a graphic that was continually updated, rather than archived:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1471043/posts?page=526#526"