Posted on 09/03/2005 7:29:18 PM PDT by CreviceTool
Risk & Insurance; 12/1/2000; WIDMER, LORI
Louisiana's marshlands, the only buffer for hurricanes that come out of the Gulf, are slipping into the ocean at an alarming rate. New search indicates that just one major hurricane could put New Orleans under water.
The Big Easy is in big trouble. New Orleans is sinking. And fast. But what's the big deal? Local businesses and residents have heard it all before. They've built levees to control the raging Mississippi. They've developed pumping systems to deal with rain and flooding. They've dug canals to move the water out of the city. And still they survive, wearing the battle scars earned from each hurricane and each flood as badges of honor.
New research by the U.S. Geological Survey, however, indicates that New Orleans is sinking faster than many realize and could be under water within 50 years. The city is facing a series of issues--disappearing wetlands that protect from hurricanes, levees that are too low to hold back flood waters, rising water tables, to name a few--that if not addressed soon could have New Orleans suffering the same fate as Atlantis.
Dramatic, yes. But not unlikely, according to Shea Penland, geologist and professor at the University of New Orleans. "When we get the big hurricane and there are 10,000 people dead, the city government's been relocated to the north shore of Lake Ponchartrain, refugee camps have been set up and there $10 billion plus in losses, what then?" he asks.
Penland has been studying hurricanes and the Louisiana coastline for decades, and he sees disaster coming. "Along the south shore of Lake Ponchartrain, there was a restaurant built in 1859 and some 200 homes that were built on pilings out on the lake around the 1930s. They had all been through the hurricane of 1948, Betsy in 1965, Camille in 1969. Hurricane Georges destroyed every one of them. Georges had a particular track that had the wind blowing directly across the longest distance that build the biggest waves."
And it is a hurricane on a particular track with a particular force that could submerge New Orleans. According to data supplied by Risk Management Solutions, a leading catastrophe modeling firm in Menlo Park, Calif., hurricanes of Category 4 or stronger make landfall within 100 miles of New Orleans about once every 35 years. There have been four storms of Category 4 strength or greater since 1899. Hurricane Camille made landfall as a Category 5 hurricane and was one of only two Category 5 hurricanes to hit the U.S. in the last century. Hurricane Betsy, a Category 4 hurricane, struck about 80 miles to the west of New Orleans, subjecting the populated areas to the stronger winds and surge on the right side of the storm path.
Another factor in how the city survives a hurricane is the natural buffer between the city and the sea. Louisiana's marshes are depleting at a rate of 25 miles to 30 miles per year, or the equivalent of a football field every 15 minutes. Since 1930, the state has lost well over 1,500 square miles of wetlands. Each year, New Orleans inches closer and closer to the Gulf of Mexico. The shrinking wetlands that bring the city closer to the coast are the same ones that have protected the city from catastrophic disaster in the past. Wetlands and barrier islands are a natural protection against hurricanes.
New Orleans sits on a bed of silt, sand and clay, which historically has been rebuilt with each flooding; new silt and sand are deposited when the river floods. But the levees that protect the city from flooding also prevent the rebuilding of the silt. As a result, New Orleans is sinking at a rate of one-third of an inch per year, which is not good for a city that is already eight feet below sea level. To make matters worse, global warming is causing the sea level to rise.
Because of these factors, Louisiana is a hot bed for claims, says Diana Herrera, regional marketing manager for the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) that operates through the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Flood claims for just the Orleans parish region since 1978 have totaled well over $309 million. Nonresidential property claims in that same area total more than $36 million, paid on 2,177 claims.
"Historically, we see more damage (from flooding) in the Jefferson, Orleans, and St. Tammany parishes. The May 1995 flood was the number one single largest event in the history of NFIP, and we paid more than $500 million in losses in that area," says Herrera.
The stakes are high, and not just for businesses in the region. Louisiana's contributions to the national economy are substantial, according to a report from the Louisiana Coastal Restoration Association. The infrastructure of the coastal area could experience a loss of more than $150 billion. That infrastructure supports several industries, including the $18.6 billion offshore oil and gas industries. Crude oil production and natural gas extraction in Louisiana contribute 89 percent and 83 percent of the country's oil and gas production. Thirty percent of the nation's fisheries are in and around the Louisiana coastline, and oyster production makes up 25 percent of the national market.
Water Everywhere
Draining the water from the New Orleans region has been a constant, centuries-old problem.
"Back in the 1800s and early 1900s, New Orleans had a very unique system of drainage that the Dutch copied," says Ken McManis, professor at the Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of New Orleans. "What we had was a system to collect the water and pump it over the levee system. But if the water accumulates more rapidly than the pumps can handle, we get flooding in certain areas."
The turn of the century brought development to the lakefront. Flooding problems plagued the area. In 1920, the New Orleans Levee Board began a massive effort to hold back the lake. The city built a 200-acre, six-foot wall along the south shore of Lake Ponchartrain. By the mid-30s, the project was completed.
At the time, New Orleans was the economic center of the south. But a 1927 flood caused the banks to fear that the location was a threat to their economic stability, according to Charles Demas, head of the U.S. Geological Survey in New Orleans. The banks left for higher ground.
Another hurricane in 1940 overtopped the levee and flooded the city once more. Again, another levee was built that raised the existing levee a bit higher. In 1965, Hurricane Betsy overtopped that levee, and the city flooded again.
Today, water is still a problem. After several different levee systems and drainage canals, New Orleans is still wet. Twenty one pumping stations still pump the water back over the levees into Lake Ponchartrain. The water tables are still rising.
And hurricanes are still a concern. Scientists say that a hurricane of category 4 or higher would devastate the city, and the current levees and drainage measures would be rendered useless. "The biggest fear is a hurricane coming through Lake Ponchartrain with New Orleans being on the northeast quadrant of the storm's center," says Demas. "That's where all the rain's going to be."
Experts conclude that it would take about 72 hours to evacuate the city should such a hurricane hit New Orleans.
. New search indicates that just one major hurricane could put New Orleans under water.
WOW
They had me until they mentioned global warming....
What would they have done- build the levee up to absurd levels? It would only make a bigger disaster someday.
You can't fight the ocean; nothing but water belongs in that spot.
You should have posted this sooner!
Just kidding. This was well known to everyone with smarts in New Orleans. One couple told us, "It is only a matter of when the city goes."
Incredible foresight, except for the dollar figure and relocation location (Baton Rouge in this case.)
Wonder if they noticed that they left the citizens behind?
Here is what FEMA, in 2004, envisioned if a slow-moving Category 3 Hurricane hit New Orleans.
New Orleans will come back.. One of the reasons is that it still a major port city.. A lot people in the heartland usess the Mississippi to transfer goods to Port New Orleans. Plus a lot ships can't navigate through the Mississippi.. So New Orleans will come back..
Maybe geneticists will develop people with gills....
Probably more quickly than the bickering about who murdered New Orleans will be resolved.
Insurance execs have a clarity of vision that no rose colored glasses can block. They have seen enough before and after that they can see the after even while it's still before.
indeed.
what a great find this article is.
And, they basically run the world.
Great article except the mentioning of BS Global Warming.
There it is: The Bush Connection.
What is needed is an effort comparable to that made by the Dutch after the North Sea storms of 1953. But changes must be made, the most obvious seems to be the abandonment of low-lying areas.
Reminds me of the Futurama episode "The Deep South" where Fry et al. visit the lost underwater city of ATLANTa.
Global warming may be a fact, but the cause is unknown, and no remedy possible.
And Katrina was pretty much right on time.
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