Basically, the fewer parties your "side" has splintered into, the better the prospects of picking up a seat in parliament.
We're seeing the equivalent of Perot's candidacy destroying Bush Senior in 1992. The Linkspartei is torpedoing Schroeder to punish him for cooperating with Bush in Afghanistan.
We're seing the equivalent of Nader torpedoing Al Gore in 2000. Without Ralph Nader, the USA would have had a Gore presidency.
So Germany will get a reasonable Chancellor only because the left splintered while the right held firm in only two parties instead of the 3 on the left.
Let us only hope that most voting districts are as divided as the polls show. If districts are really homogenous (as many are), the polls show that the conservatives might not get a majority in the Bundestag (unlikely).
But, even if that happens, Schroeder has guaranteed that he will NOT form a new government with the Linkspartei but, rather, ally with the pro-Bush conservatives to stay in Afghanistan and do other rational things.
Here are today's poll numbers in Germany: ...Ugh. That bad? Where are those numbers from? The only institute I trust is Allensbach, I hope it wasn't them...
But, even if that happens, Schroeder has guaranteed that he will NOT form a new government with the Linkspartei but, rather, ally with the pro-Bush conservatives to stay in Afghanistan and do other rational things.The SPD has always forgotten about these promises the day after election day. If they can form a government with SPD/Green/Commies, I predict they will (if the commies agree, that is).