NOAA predicted Katrina's storm track precisely as early as Friday.
It struck the Gulf Coast within 50miles of the forecast they gave at that time. Somewhere, on some thread or other, there is a compilation of their predicted track ... incredible accuracy with this storm.
Joe from Accuweather showed the warm "puff" of air that moved it to the East away from New Orleans at the last minute and then it curved back to the West and continued on the previously forecasted track. It basically moved 15 miles to the East from that puff.