What if Hurricane Ivan Had Not Missed New Orleans? (I told you so Alert)

Natural Hazards Observer ^ | November 3, 2004 | Shirley Laska

[Brian Mosely]

Author’s Note: This column was originally intended to be the final disaster in the “Disasters Waiting to Happen” series. As I was developing the hypothetical situation depicting a devastating hurricane striking New Orleans, Louisiana, the disaster waiting to happen threatened to become a reality: Hurricane Ivan, a category 4 hurricane (with 140 mph winds) fluctuating to a category 5 (up to 155 mph winds), was slowly moving directly toward New Orleans. Forecasters were predicting a one-in-four chance that Ivan would remain on this direct path and would be an “extreme storm” at landfall. In reality, the storm veered to the north and made landfall east of Mobile Bay, Alabama, causing devastation and destruction well into the central Gulf shoreline and throughout the Southeast and the Mid-Atlantic states.

What if Ivan Had Hit New Orleans?

New Orleans was spared, this time, but had it not been, Hurricane Ivan would have:

• Pushed a 17-foot storm surge into Lake Pontchartrain;

• Caused the levees between the lake and the city to overtop and fill the city “bowl” with water from lake levee to river levee, in some places as deep as 20 feet;

• Flooded the north shore suburbs of Lake Pontchartrain with waters pushing as much as seven miles inland; and

• Inundated inhabited areas south of the Mississippi River.

Up to 80 percent of the structures in these flooded areas would have been severely damaged from wind and water. The potential for such extensive flooding and the resulting damage is the result of a levee system that is unable to keep up with the increasing flood threats from a rapidly eroding coastline and thus unable to protect the ever-subsiding landscape.

[Brian Mosely]

Talk about "I told you so..."

[BellStar]

I'm a photojournalist. Yesterday I visited all my towns HOTELS and B & B's looking for a cute little story of the Louisiana evacuees who came here seeking a place to stay. All HOTEL parking lots and B & B's in my town were full of Louisiana license plates and all the rooms in our town were full. Was not two hard a job. I found one family of 40 and one of 30 and another of 15. Got great shoots. Nice looking folks. All had pets and lots of children. I was in heaven. Our mayor and mayor pro-tem thought this was a chance to call on these people and welcome them. Cute stuff. Our mayor pro-tem baked cookies and she bought toys for the kids. When we went to give the one family the toys and cookies we discovered the family was out of money, food dippers and were from a part of Jefferson Parish that was wiped out. We are feeding these people. The local Wal-Mart has provided the dry goods and all the restaurants, Elks Club and mayor pro-tem are cooking round the clock. We are in touch with the Salvation Army to find permanent shelter for them and I am one FReeper that feels really good to have been able to help.

[MikefromOhio]

Ivan wasn't nearly as strong or as "deep" as Katrina was.

Katrina was much stronger, much closer to landfall...

[RadioAstronomer]

I am one FReeper that feels really good to have been able to help.

A big thank you! My brother is still down there.

[Racehorse]

In this hypothetical storm scenario, it is estimated that it would take nine weeks to pump the water out of the city, and only then could assessments begin to determine what buildings were habitable or salvageable. Sewer, water, and the extensive forced drainage pumping systems would be damaged. National authorities would be scrambling to build tent cities to house the hundreds of thousands of refugees unable to return to their homes and without other relocation options.

Listened to some fool, a professor of some sort, argue on television this morning federal bucks should not be spent on New Orleans relief and recovery.

[Mind-numbed Robot]

That is a wonderful thing to do. Which town is "my little town"?