Barone: An End to Polarization?

Creator's Syndicate ^ | August 29, 2005 | Michael Barone

[Paladin2]

Neither McCain nor Giuliani are likely to 1) win the nomination, 2) the election.

They just won't get enough votes.

[atomicpossum]

It seems ridiculous to handicap a race this far out.

Frankly, I don't think Rudy OR McCain has a snowball's chance of the nomination, much less the office. And with so long to go for alternatives to present themselves, there's no need to pick which one of them is the lesser evil.

[okie01]

But Clinton has to be regarded as the clear favorite in the Democratic race, and not only because over the last 40 years Democrats have won only when they've nominated candidates whose last names begin with C.

Thereby opening the door for Michigan congressman, John Conyers.

Run, John. Run!

[vpintheak]

We have to pray that a conservative wins the nomination.

[Sonny M]

They just won't get enough votes.

It seems that way to me.

Something I hadn't thought about, but one of my friends did.

If Rudy, McCain, and Romney all run, aren't they just going to split the moderate votes apart anyway and (for effects and purposes) get totally blown out by the 3rd primary?

[Yardstick]

It'll be interesting to see who might pop up. Two years before the 2000 election, was anyone thinking seriously about George W. Bush being the candidate? My recollection is that he kind of came out of nowhere (on the other hand, I wasn't paying a whole lot of attention back then).

[thoughtomator]

I wonder what sort of brain damage is necessary to think McCain has a shot at the GOP nomination... the Democrat one, maybe.

[ncountylee]

Duers would love Conyers.

[okie01]

Duers would love Conyers.

Somebody should start a rumor...

[Uncle Miltie]

Bingo. Neither can win the nomination. The conservative core won't have them. Neither can win the election, because conservatives would stay home.

[G-Bob]

Bush was picked as a front runner early in 1998. His Texas re-election landslide sealed it with the party leaders who were looking for a winner.

[Billthedrill]

She Who Must Not Be Named is the apotheosis of polarization and is incapable of campaigning any other way, and even if she could her people cannot. She will pose as a moderate largely by attempting to portray her opponent as an "extremist" - Lord, how they love that word! But it won't do. In the final analysis she hasn't a thing except for "I'm a Woman" and "It's My Turn."

It got tribal in the late 60's and it will be so until her tribe and mine retire to a bitter senescence. Their highest moment came in 1975 when the tanks rolled south from the North Vietnamese border. They thought B.J. Clinton was it until 1994 when they got the props kicked out from under their arrogance and they've been playing out a losing hand ever since. Kerry was a perfect ball-carrier for this bunch and a perfect loser.

I think She is a real problem. She'll have the media She's always had and the dirt they dug up from the FBI files and she'll offer every Hollywood pinhead who wants 15 more minutes of fame a chance to bounce on the bed in the Lincoln bedroom. It's a greasy, squalid, unsavory team, but they bulled their way into the White House once and they're determined to do it again. And it may be their last chance.

[nickcarraway]

Neither would win because Hillary would play them like a drum. Hillary must be salivating to run against McCain. She would slaughter him.

[Steely Tom]

Nicely said, BTD.

(steely)

[jmaroneps37]

Barone is fooling himself if he thinks either mcpain (media) Az or the guy who will be "Rudy who?" by then will be the nomimee. It will be George Allen. This will be true because neither of the first too will be able to get out of the GOP primary system and both are smart enough to know they would not win as either a rat or an Indy.
The ticket will be Allen/Blackwell.

[verity]

Never discount Barone's observations.

[NeoCaveman]

If it's not clear whether McCain or Giuliani could duplicate the right-wing turnout for Bush, it's also not clear whether Clinton could duplicate the left-wing turnout in 2004, which was motivated mostly by hatred of Bush.

Neither McCain nor Guliani (especailly Guliani) could get the turn out that Bush got.

I mean who is going to make all the phone calls and knock on all the door for the GOTV effort? Country clubbers?

[SDGOP]

No their maids will be doing that job.

[NeoCaveman]

No their maids will be doing that job.

Jokes on them. The house staff is all Democrats.

Like the old joke goes:
Why are there Rockefeller Republicans?
Because they don't want to be in the same party as the help.